Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

[Celedhring]

I can't see where the next 300m+ opener is going to come from (let alone snatching the record) until we accrue quite a few more years of inflation. EG is far from being a "new normal" of any kind regarding blockbusters.

 

That said, my personal and completely unscientific benchmark for "blockbusterness" is whatever figure makes you almost certain to land in the Top 5 of a given year (obviously some years will be stronger than others), and it's true that 300m doesn't seem to cut it anymore (it won't this year and it hasn't since 2014). The new benchmark since to be around 350-400.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Celedhring

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If anything I think 'hit' is more relative to budget. Pikachu was a disappointment at 54 while John Wick is a massive success at 57.

Every film's verdict is unique case. What I was trying to point out is that in the age when we are getting $500mn plus films frequently now, $300mn is no longer the BLOCKBUSTER gross number which it was in 2010.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Every film's verdict is unique case. What I was trying to point out is that in the age when we are getting $500mn plus films frequently now, $300mn is no longer the BLOCKBUSTER gross number which it was in 2010.

Fair enough I guess.

[BadAtGender]

What's the definition of a blockbuster, then?

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, ElsaRoc said:

What's the definition of a blockbuster, then?

Blockbuster film and Blockbuster Gross are too separate things.

 

A 500mn is Blockbuster Gross but couldn't be Blockbuster film for something like Endgame. 300 is Blockbuster film for something like IT but not a Blockbuster Gross.

[BadAtGender]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Blockbuster film and Blockbuster Gross are too separate things.

 

A 500mn is Blockbuster Gross but couldn't be Blockbuster film for something like Endgame. 300 is Blockbuster film for something like IT but not a Blockbuster Gross.

 

Well, that doesn't make any sense.

 

I'll agree that it's contextual based on the film, but not that there are two separate metrics.

[JimiQ]

eh, I don't like relative things. I'm closer to the top5 rolling average from last 5 years. If it fits, it's blockbuster, otherwise it is not

[Firepower]

Can somebody ask BOMojo to fix JW3 foreign number?

[Porthos]

Since folks were throwing out 2012, here are some reverse adj numbers for $300m movies adj'ed back to 2012 ticket prices:

 

2018:

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter 4th Row A24 AAE Abr. ADC Affirm Amazon AMBI Ammo Annapurna ArabQ Argo. Arrow Art of Sport Artma Atlantic Rec Aviron BH Tilt BloodSweatHo Blue Fox Briarcliff BSM BST BV BWP Carpe Stella Cartilage CARUSEL CBS Cdgm. Central Squa CFI CGld CJ CL Cleopatra CLS Cohen Conglomerate Da. Darin Southa Distrib. El Tigre Electric Elev. Elevation ENTMP EOne EpicPics Eros Excel Fathom FB FIP FLM FM Focus Fox Fox Sports FoxS FR Free FRun FUN FunAcad G&S Gathr Gaum. Ghop GK Global Road Gold. Good Deed Grav. Great Point Greenwich Grindstone GrtIndia GVN Hann. HBO Icar. IFC Illumine in8 INDEP Indic. IronFlix ITF IWF Jan. KL LD LG/S LGF Lightyear Magn. MBox Men. MGM Mirr/LD Mr. Pictures MS MUBI N/A Neon NET NGE North of Two Orch. Orion Osci. OutF PackYourBag Pala. Par. Passion Rive PBS PDF PFR Pinnacle PNT Prm QF R1 RAtt. RE Relbig. Rialto RLJ Scre. SGem Shout! Shrts. SingularDTV Sony Spanglish SPC Strand Studio 8 STX Super Swen Synergetic TFA Trafalgar TriCoast Tripod Tulip Two Roads Uni. UTMW VE Vita. VLA VPD W/Dim. WARX2 WB WB (NL) Wein. WGUSA Yash Zeit. Zipp. ZP ALL	Adj. Total Gross / Theaters		Adj. Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Black Panther	BV	$607,127,600	4,084	$175,540,600	4,020	2/16	8/9
2	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$576,461,100	4,474	$218,686,300	4,474	4/27	9/13
3	Incredibles 2	BV	$527,742,000	4,410	$155,031,500	4,410	6/15	12/13
4	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Uni.	$365,716,200	4,485	$125,615,800	4,475	6/22	10/4
5	Aquaman	WB	$295,746,700	4,184	$59,830,900	4,125	12/21	4/4
6	Deadpool 2	Fox	$270,888,900	4,349	$106,507,100	4,349	5/18	10/18

2017:

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter A24 AAE Abk. Abr. AD ADC Affirm Amazon AMBI Amor Annapurna ArcEnt Argo. Arrow Artsploitati Aviron B360 BBC BG BH Tilt BOP BSM BST BV BWP CARUSEL CAVU CBS Cdgm. CFI CGld CJ CJE CL CLF CLS Cohen Crimson Da. Distrib. EF Electric Elev. ENTMP EOne EpicPics Eros Factory Faith Media Fathom FB FCW FIP FM Focus Fox FoxS FPE FR Free FRun FUN G&S Gathr Ghop GK Global Digit Gold. Good Deed Grav. Grey Lady GrtIndia Hann. HC Hiber Icar. IFC Imax INDEP Indic. Instrum Jan. KL LG/S LGF LGP LucD. Magn. Mats. MBox Men. MOM Mont. MR MUBI N/A Neon NET Newcity NN Orch. ORF Orion Osci. Pala. Par. ParC PBS PDF PFR PNT Purd. RAtt. Real Women Rel. Relbig. Rialto RivR Sarkasmos Scre. SD SG SGem Shout! Shrts. Smarthouse Society Sony SPC Strand STX Sumerian Super SV Swen TFA TFC TriCoast TriS Uncork'd Uni. UTMW UTV VE Vita. VLA W/Dim. WB WB (NL) Wein. WGUSA Yash Zee Zeit. ZF Zipp. ALL	Adj. Total Gross / Theaters		Adj. Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$538,052,100	4,232	$190,770,800	4,232	12/15	4/19
2	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$452,113,700	4,210	$157,354,600	4,210	3/17	7/13
3	Wonder Woman	WB	$367,079,600	4,165	$91,830,400	4,165	6/2	11/9
4	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$351,247,600	3,849	$31,362,500	3,765	12/20	5/31
5	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$346,710,000	4,347	$130,304,000	4,347	5/5	9/21
6	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$297,848,800	4,348	$104,315,700	4,348	7/7	11/30
7	It	WB (NL)	$290,608,400	4,148	$109,999,000	4,103	9/8	12/14
8	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$273,196,700	4,080	$106,432,500	4,080	11/3	3/15

 

2016:

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter 25th Frame 26 Aries 5&2 A23 A24 AAE Abr. AD AEF AF Air Bud Alc Ampl. Anch. AR ArcEnt Argentum Argo. Artma B&A BBC BG BH Tilt Boxcar BSC BSM BST BV BWP Cartuna CAVU CEye CineGalaxy Cinestaan CJ CL Cleopatra CLS Cohen Crnth CZ Dalton Distrib. Dreamwest Drft. DWOES EC EF Electric Elev. EOne EpicPics Eros ESX Fathom FB FCW FIP FM Focus Forewarned Fox FoxS FR Free FRun FUN Gaatri Gathr Gemelli Ghop GK Gold. Grav. GVN Ham Hann. HTR Icar. ICir IFC Imax INDEP Indic. Invincible Jampa Jan. JBG JSenko Jude KL Leis. LFlower LG/S LGF LGP LifeWay Lightyear Linn Long Shot Magn. MarVista Masters Mats. MBox MDL Men. Mirror Mon Mont. Moore MR MS NET Orch. ORF Orion Osci. Pala. Par. PFR PM&E PNT Purd. QF RAtt. Red Dirt Rel. Rela. Relbig. Rialto RM RME Saban Scre. SDS SGem Shad. Shout! Shrts. SkyI SM Sony SPC Strand STX TFA TFC Trans TriCoast TriS TUG UEP Uncork'd Uni. UTMW UTV Vanish Vanishing VE Vita. VPD W/Dim. WB WB (NL) Wein. WGUSA Wonder WOW WRA Yash YFG Zee Zeit. ALL	Adj. Total Gross / Theaters		Adj. Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$481,115,300	4,157	$140,438,000	4,157	12/16	5/4
2	Finding Dory	BV	$447,018,400	4,305	$123,147,700	4,305	6/17	12/8
3	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$372,171,700	4,226	$163,338,800	4,226	5/6	9/22
4	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$344,459,600	4,381	$97,608,600	4,370	7/8	12/29
5	Deadpool	Fox	$336,652,100	3,856	$122,864,800	3,558	2/12	6/16
6	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$332,017,400	4,144	$94,153,600	4,028	4/15	9/29
7	Zootopia	BV	$315,264,500	3,959	$69,639,200	3,827	3/4	8/4
8	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$304,554,600	4,256	$154,011,500	4,242	3/25	6/16
9	Suicide Squad	WB	$303,905,400	4,255	$125,042,400	4,255	8/5	11/10

2015:

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter A24 AaF Abr. AD ADC ADF AF AK Alc Ampl. Anch. AR Argo. ArtsA Asp. AZ BBC BG BH Tilt BM Bram. BSC BSM BST BV BWP CafeP CDF Cdgm. CE CFF CFilms CGld CIE CJ CL CLF CLS Cohen CP Crnth DFL Distrib. DN Drft. EC Elev. Emr. EOne EpicPics Eros Excel FB FCW FDesk FFS FILMDESK FIP FM Focus FOR Fox FoxS FPE FR Free FRun FUN Gathr GK Gold. Grav. GVN HanM Hann. HF HHF Hon Icar. ICir IFC IH Imag. INDEP Indic. ITL Jan. Kino KL L33 LG/S LGF LGP Lions Magn. MBox MDL MOM Mon Mont. MR MSF N/A OIH Orch. ORF Osci. P4 Pala. Par. PARAIN Part. PBS PDF PFP PFR PH Ply PMD PN PSR Purd. R1 RAtt. REI Rel. Rela. Rialto RTJ RTWC Rum. Sab. Saban Scre. SD SDS SGem SHO Shout! Shrts. SM Sony SPC Strand STX TA TAFC TD TFA TFC TMF Trib. TriS TVC U/P UEP UHE Uni. UTMW UTV Vari. VE Vita. VLA W/Dim. WARX2 WB WB (NL) Wein. WGUSA WinD WMP Yash YNGM Zeit. Zipp. ZKS ALL	Adj. Total Gross / Theaters		Adj. Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$860,596,200	4,134	$226,875,300	4,134	12/18	6/2
2	Jurassic World	Uni.	$629,231,600	4,291	$201,466,400	4,274	6/12	11/19
3	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$426,074,200	4,276	$176,831,400	4,276	5/1	10/8
4	Inside Out	BV	$343,765,300	4,158	$87,261,200	3,946	6/19	12/10
5	Furious 7	Uni.	$326,549,400	4,022	$136,075,400	4,004	4/3	7/24
6	Minions	Uni.	$324,085,400	4,311	$111,650,700	4,301	7/10	12/17

In 2018, Aquaman and Deadpool 2 fall off the list (Aqua just barely).  2017, Homecoming (just barely), IT, and Thor: Ragnarok all fall off the list.  2016 and 2015 doesn't have any fall off the list.

 

Since Aquaman barely falls off the list, I think putting the line at 340m or 350m right now is pretty acceptable, if we were using 300m in 2012 as a guideline.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Porthos

[aabattery]

Blockbuster is obviously an arbitrary term but it's nuts to say something that grosses 300m domestic isn't a blockbuster. Hell, I'd call anything over 200m a blockbuster.

[JimiQ]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

Blockbuster is obviously an arbitrary term but it's nuts to say something that grosses 300m domestic isn't a blockbuster. Hell, I'd call anything over 200m a blockbuster.

To quote some famous villain - if everything is blockbuster then nothing is

Now, I'm not saying that every movie is hitting $200m, but it has become increasingly easy to hit it

[That One Girl]

My arbitrary definition for blockbuster is any film that makes 150M+.  Not sure why it needs to be such a strict definition.  The definition on Wikipedia is "highly popular and financially successful" and if something's making 150M then you can bet that it's pretty damn popular (and unless the budget is way too high it's also probably a financial success)

Edited May 20, 2019 by That One Guy

[charlie Jatinder]

In India we followed ROI method to give verdicts. As in, if a film do 3x its Investment by Distributor its Blockbuster. With time the verdict start getting leniant for big films as it's impossible to give 3x return to the high distribution rights that films are sold on.

 

Currently, the most famous box office tracking site Boxofficeindia.com use GROSS to give verdicts for the film. Approximately 25mn admits mark is considered BLOCKBUSTER level for tentpole films. Baahubali 2 (Hindi) had 52.5mn Approx admits, so barely 50% of the biggest HIT is considered BLOCKBUSTER.

 

If we were to apply the same to US, that will be around 50mn admits or $450-500mn Approx.

[aabattery]

7 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

To quote some famous villain - if everything is blockbuster then nothing is

Now, I'm not saying that every movie is hitting $200m, but it has become increasingly easy to hit it

 

Each year there's like one hundred wide releases or something (haven't checked the numbers but it sounds right lmao). At this stage we're getting around fifteen above 200m. I think it's fair to call the top fifteen percent of movies blockbusters.

[DAJK]

At 20, I should not be saying “that makes me feel old” yet. Not by a long shot. But talking about 2012, the defining year that got me into movies and box office (and a year that shaped me in a lot of other ways too basically meeting a lot of my friends today and sorta turning into the person I was throughout high school and college) as a “past/historical benchmark” makes me feel OLD

[commonsense88]

I always felt a blockbuster film is based on the budget and had nothing to do with its gross, any film with a budget more than 100 mil was ment to be a blockbuster no matter if it failed or succeeded financially

[TalismanRing]

There are no Blockbusters with reserved seating.
 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

28 minutes ago, DAJK said:

At 20, I should not be saying “that makes me feel old” yet. Not by a long shot. But talking about 2012, the defining year that got me into movies and box office (and a year that shaped me in a lot of other ways too basically meeting a lot of my friends today and sorta turning into the person I was throughout high school and college) as a “past/historical benchmark” makes me feel OLD

Wait until you're 50...

[Justin4125]

500m DOM as a benchmark to declare a film a "blockbuster"? No way. I agree 300m is the magic number if there was such a thing

 

Lets just say I am at least twice DAJK's age. You guys seem to be operating under the assumption that 300m dom was the previous benchmark. I can say quite confidently that this was not the case. If you go back 10 years anything over 200m was great, over 250m (a la Star Trek 2009) was considered a big blockbuster domestically

 

Jurassic World is the only non-Disney film to cross the 500m barrier in the past 9 years 

 

500m is rarefied ground, 400m is quite spectacular, and 300m dom+ is a blockbuster

[charlie Jatinder]

Actuals

 

14.5

9.7 (7.4 12.9 9.7 : 30)

8.15

 

Edited May 20, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder