Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[TwoMisfits]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Expected for Booksmart unfortunately but it'll likely find a big following when it comes out for home viewing. Teen movies just can't really breakout anymore on the big screen. Brightburn also landed about where I thought it would

 

Aladdin is locked for $100M+ over the 4-day and possibly even $110M+ too depending on how it plays through the rest of the weekend. Feels like Aquaman all over again where everyone underestimated the appeal about how big it could be as long as it was at least a half-decent movie.

Ummm, maybe not everyone...if you go to the Aladdin thread, a few of us mentioned that Coco numbers seemed like where this would land if it didn't outrightly suck/was a decent movie (Coco $209M DOM and $800M WW)...it seems those numbers might be a little optimistic for WW (although maybe not, b/c I don't really follow WW much), but might be very close to eventual Aladdin ending DOM...

Edited May 25, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

booksmart is another one that might've actually been a big deal if it had gone straight to netflix. the laziest teen movies seem to blow up there, i can't imagine how well it would go if they actually had a good one.

 

How do you get info on Netflix.  How do you find out what movies do well there and which ones don't?

[meriodejaneiro]

39 minutes ago, Maximum Avery said:

Ursula needs to be oprah

 

TTVOMJ

No please, no more drag-queen-tales, please! We had enough with Wrinkle drag show.

[Hatebox]

That's a better number for Aladdin than the disaster it could have been. Very glad the well of great animated disney movies to remake is starting to run dry though, this live-action conveyor belt isn't exactly producing a run of classics.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by Hatebox

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

How do you get info on Netflix.  How do you find out what movies do well there and which ones don't?

basically they tell the press. sometimes they release numbers that sound like bullshit. ted sarandos said the kissing booth was "one of the most watched movies in the country". 40 million people watched sex education. stuff like that.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

How do you get info on Netflix.  How do you find out what movies do well there and which ones don't?

They don't release official numbers. Although with them working to get The Irishman a wide theatrical release maybe that'll change.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Hatebox said:

That's a better number for Aladdin than the disaster it could have been. Very glad the well of great animated disney movies to remake is starting to run dry, this live action conveyor belt isn't exactly producing a run of classics.

 

BatB really got everyone at Disney excited.  With 1.2 billion they just figured that every one of their classics would maybe do the same.  Kind of a rude awakening when something like Dumbo crashes and burns.  I really have my doubts about how well TLK will do.

[Alli]

Whoopy Goldberg for Ursula? just a sugestion. Olivia Colman would be ideal casting.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah Jane Goldman gives me hope with the script for The Little Mermaid but Rob Marshall is such a bland choice. But he and Disney obviously have a good thing going with them since this will be his 4th straight film with them.

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

How do you get info on Netflix.  How do you find out what movies do well there and which ones don't?

 

They don't release figures most of the time but something like The Kissing Booth was inexplicably huge according to Netflix despite being a really bad movie.  Booksmart is a phenomenal movie so it'd probably do great and have more impact if it were a Netflix original

[RamblinRed]

I thought this sentence in the Deadline article was interesting and worth remembering.

 

On social media, RelishMix noticed that most of the negative buzz, like critics, came from those with zero interest in Disney live action cartoon remakes.

Such negative buzz, which rival studios enjoyed sniping about at CinemaCon, hasn’t seeped into the general moviegoers’ consciousness.

That's something to remember, it's not a small subset of people on a message board like us that determine the success of a film, it is the GA at large. Basically they are saying those negative responses would have been there regardless of how good or bad the trailers were.

 

I'm also curious what the final marketing budget is for Aladdin, there has been alot of chatter that Disney did not promote this one as much as some of he previous remakes. I suspect this will end up making a small profit for them just from the theatrical release, but its important to remember that Disney is not a movie studio - it is an entertainment conglomerate. It will likely make a really nice profit off of it once all the ancillaries are added in.

[MCKillswitch123]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Ummm, maybe not everyone...if you go to the Aladdin thread, a few of us mentioned that Coco numbers seemed like where this would land if it didn't outrightly suck/was a decent movie (Coco $209M DOM and $800M WW)...it seems those numbers might be a little optimistic for WW (although maybe not, b/c I don't really follow WW much), but might be very close to eventual Aladdin ending DOM...

Pretty sure Aladdin will at least be a touch-and-go for 250 DOM. WW, yeah, 800 seems high, but I'd bank on 650-700 as a good chance. In a world where Disney didn't completely fuck up the marketing and positioning, it would blow past 1B WW, but it is what it is.

 

@baumer Dumbo is nowhere near the same level of popularity as BATB or Lion King or these others. It's closer to a Cinderella or a Winnie The Pooh/Christopher Robin, if anything (and it performed closer to the latter). And its performance wasn't a complete crash-and-burn. It doubled its budget WW, at the very least, so even if it fails to make a theatrical profit, it'll definitely be in the green once it hits ancilliaries. It's no disaster by any means. The Lion King is the biggest and most popular movie Disney has ever made. I'd be shocked if it doesn't hit 200M OW alone, especially if mismarketed and mispositioned Aladdin can hit 100M 4-days and BATB can cross 170.

Edited May 25, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[Jim Shorts]

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Oh yeah it really have the potential for that, but sadly everything went wrong... from production problems, reshoots and backlash because of whitewashing to atrocious marketing campaign, strong hate online and low tracking

 

Almost everyone buried this movie because of that, so considering all those things it's really impressive how the movie still manages to be succeed... could be bigger, but it's definitely a hit 

 

Most parents aren’t aware of backlash on Internet forums and message boards. They aren’t going to care about any of that stuff as long as Disney is stamped on the title, especially opening weekend. If the movie sucks, word of mouth doesn’t kick in until about the 3rd weekend and by then most of the money has been made anyways. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

I thought this sentence in the Deadline article was interesting and worth remembering.

 

On social media, RelishMix noticed that most of the negative buzz, like critics, came from those with zero interest in Disney live action cartoon remakes.

Such negative buzz, which rival studios enjoyed sniping about at CinemaCon, hasn’t seeped into the general moviegoers’ consciousness.

That's something to remember, it's not a small subset of people on a message board like us that determine the success of a film, it is the GA at large. Basically they are saying those negative responses would have been there regardless of how good or bad the trailers were.

 

I'm also curious what the final marketing budget is for Aladdin, there has been alot of chatter that Disney did not promote this one as much as some of he previous remakes. I suspect this will end up making a small profit for them just from the theatrical release, but its important to remember that Disney is not a movie studio - it is an entertainment conglomerate. It will likely make a really nice profit off of it once all the ancillaries are added in.

I feel like it's becoming increasingly obvious that social media really is little more than an echo chamber.

[RamblinRed]

Netflix is going to be an interesting company to watch over the next few years. It continues to take on debt - it just went on the market for another $2B worth to fund content.

 

It hasn't paid any of its debt down and its cash burn continues to accelerate. Eventually it is going to have to change those trends and that is going to get harder as more media companies move into the space it created. 

 

i don't think it is going anywhere but I do think its ability to purchase content is going to be negatively impacted over the long run as it has to start paying some of that debt off.

[Maximum Avery]

25 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

meh they've got good and bad movies like any studio. i guess because they put out so many movies the ratio is a little off.

If the good/bad ratio is off then huge number of releases dampens your point Loolio ... decisions decisions... which one to pick...

 

TTVOMJ

 

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I thought this sentence in the Deadline article was interesting and worth remembering.

 

On social media, RelishMix noticed that most of the negative buzz, like critics, came from those with zero interest in Disney live action cartoon remakes.

 

HA  this board is a prime example of that. Those who considered Aladdin competition for their favorites really hated on poor Aladdin. But people see what they wanna see. Social media can influence people, but the hate was not sustained by hard cold facts i guess and so it was ignored by the target audience

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I feel like it's becoming increasingly obvious that social media really is little more than an echo chamber.

Agreed, after Venom, Captain Marvel, Aladdin and the upcoming EP IX it's pretty obvious online hate didn't really matter 

[That One Girl]

Just now, Alli said:

HA  this board is a prime example of that. Those who considered Aladdin competition for their favorites really hated on poor Aladdin. But people see what they wanna see. Social media can influence people, but the hate was not sustained by hard cold facts i guess and so it was ignored by the target audience

 

Audiences LOVED Aladdin.  Critics put out the hit.  Who would you trust, yourself or a troll behind a keyboard?

[Jim Shorts]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

BatB really got everyone at Disney excited.  With 1.2 billion they just figured that every one of their classics would maybe do the same.  Kind of a rude awakening when something like Dumbo crashes and burns.  I really have my doubts about how well TLK will do.

Problem was who did Dumbo really appeal to?  Girls want princesses and boys want action. A movie about a flying circus elephant has no real appeal in 2019.