Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Godzilla KOTM $47.77M | Aladdin $42.84M | Rocketman $25.72M | MA $18.09M

[RamblinRed]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I haven't followed this full thread, so not sure if it's been covered, but I'm assuming people are anticipating the gap between Godzilla and Aladdin to shrink. G:KOTM is showing a smaller drop despite being a very front loaded opening weekend, while Aladdin is seeing a sharper Sunday drop than it had from the Sunday to Monday period on its opening weekend. 

 

It shouldn't impact the order of the weekend, but it feels like we could see the gap move by a couple of million potentially. 

Absolutely. I expect that once we have actuals we will see that Aladdin Thur-Sun > Zilla OW+Previews 

I think Aladdin has the potential for a sub 50% drop and the best 3rd weekend ever for a MD opener.

 

[Cap]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I can't tell you one person I knew who knew who Evans was before Cap. I remember when FF2 came out and absolutely no one was considering him any kind of box office draw. 

I did!!!

[75Live]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I did!!!

 

yeah me too, but I wouldn't say he was a box office draw at all.  But I knew him before Captain America and even Fantastic Four.  But I realize I was probably in the minority there  

[MagnarTheGreat]

RE: Godzilla KOTM opening day demographics

 

Deadline: "Caucasians were less than 50% of the crowd with very good turnout by Hispanic (24%) and Asian moviegoers (13%). West coast business is bound to be very good. Male heavy as expected at 70%, with leading demos being men over 25 (41%), men under 25 (29%), females over 25 (18%) and females under 25 (12%)."

 

Other big movies (first 2 weeks)

[That One Girl]

20 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I can’t effing believe we have to live in a Timeline where Rami Malek has an Oscar for that Bohemian Rhapsody travesty, and Taron Eagerton probably won’t even get nominated due to the release date.

 

Straight. Up. Bull. Shit. 

 

 

Love that Rami Malek gets an Oscar for lip syncing when Bradley Cooper, who learned how to sing specifically for A Star is Born, was right there

[ScoobyDoo21]

Who really cares about Dark Phoenix anyway. Everyone and their mothers know that even if it does well, the series is on borrowed time.

Edited June 2, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Love that Rami Malek gets an Oscar for lip syncing when Bradley Cooper, who learned how to sing specifically for A Star is Born, was right there

Say this a little louder for the people in the back!!!!

[LawrenceBrolivier]

27 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I can’t effing believe we have to live in a Timeline where Rami Malek has an Oscar for that Bohemian Rhapsody travesty, and Taron Eagerton probably won’t even get nominated due to the release date.

 

Straight. Up. Bull. Shit. 

 

He's going to get the nomination. He's probably the first real lock for a nomination, in fact. 

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/06/rocketman-taron-egerton-oscars-odds-standing-ovation-academy-1202146599/

Edited June 2, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[SchumacherFTW]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Love that Rami Malek gets an Oscar for lip syncing when Bradley Cooper, who learned how to sing specifically for A Star is Born, was right there

Are you ever going to let it go man? 

[Justin4125]

44 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Zilla will go down with actuals. I bet it is closer to 47. WB clearly wanted to at least be able to have that 49 number in the estimates. 

Every Zilla picture in the US has dropped 60% or more in weekend 2, so I expect an ugly drop for this next week, probably looking at a sub 20M number. I think 105M DOM it the ceiling for it.

 

That is a fantastic hold for Aladdin and bodes well for the rest of its run. That is the 3rd best 2nd weekend ever for a MD release behind the 44.7 of Crystal Skull and the 44.2 of POTC:AWE. (4th best is Bruce Almighty at 37M)

It's also the best % drop of any of the Top 10 MD releases and one of only 2 of the Top 10 that dropped less than 60% in the 2nd weekend. 

 

Endgame continues to fall at >50% rates (only MD weekend was less). I expect that to largely continue.

 

I'm holding my breath with KoTM, hoping it wont be as frontloaded as its predecessors (potentially solid WOM vs tough competition, we will see....)

 

AEG took a big theater hit this weekend, but it suffered an even more significant loss of screens (seems like it lost more screens than Pikachu across the board despite still outgrossing it stateside). Im not sure about how much control Disney has over the release of DP given legacy Fox moneymen have the biggest stakes in the film, but if they can somehow minimize screen/theater loss despite DP's release, it could help stem some of the bleeding with AEG. Its memorial day hold was still very solid compared to the other big films during the same period, MD has never provided much of a cushion compared to other holidays

 

In any case, all of these wide releases are crowding each other out, very reminiscent of 2014 (when, interestingly enough, we had a Godzilla, Disney live action and an Xmen movie). All films during the same period were fighting for screens and losing them fast, with steep week to week drops until the competition thinned out a bit later into June. I just hope KoTM and Dark Phoenix can save some face (and for DP to leg it into solid profit territory)

Edited June 2, 2019 by Justin4125

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

He's going to get the nomination. He's probably the first real lock for a nomination, in fact. 

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/06/rocketman-taron-egerton-oscars-odds-standing-ovation-academy-1202146599/

Nah. Movies outside of awards season only really stick around in the conversation unless they deliver at the box office. This is gonna make about 90M, which is good, but nothing extraordinary. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood's likely gonna gross way more too, so it'll be overshadowed by July.

 

Taron's best bet is a Globe nom

[LawrenceBrolivier]

 

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Nah. Movies outside of awards season only really stick around in the conversation unless they deliver at the box office. This is gonna make about 90M, which is good, but nothing extraordinary. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood's likely gonna gross way more too, so it'll be overshadowed by July.

 

Taron's best bet is a Globe nom

If he gets brought up for a Globe, he'll get brought up for an Oscar. He'll get brought up for both. The industry wants to reward this film as a makeup for giving so many awards to Bohemian Rhapsody despite the fact Singer did his best to kill and smear it. Paramount has to spend their money on something this year, might as well be a marketing campaign for Oscar season.

This performance is Academy catnip. It's "Taron is just as good as Rami, except he got to have gay sex and sing his own songs." 

[Cap]

13 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Are you ever going to let it go man? 

Nope.  At least not until the next Oscar eff up that badly. 

 

Anyway, Rocketman was a great jukebox musical. Good stuff. My 12:45 was sold out, even the first row. Someone clapped and cheered at the end. The gay sex didn’t scare anyway the old folk: they were like 60% of

the audience. 

[TMP]

Unless potential contenders like Jonathon Pryce, Leo & Pitt, De Niro, Banderas, Driver, Damon and/or Bale all fail in their awards campaign, Taron doesn't look likely to happen at all. I'd say Joaquin too, but he's shit-talked the Oscars before and playing a role that already won an Oscar is gonna hurt his chances.

Edited June 2, 2019 by TMP

[CJohn]

Everyone thinking Godzilla will have good legs is in for a rude awakening. I guess legs will be slightly better than the first one, but not by much. I am expecting a 65% drop against Dark Phoenix's 50M debut.

Edited June 2, 2019 by CJohn

[Ruthie]

I don't understand why the respective studios decided to release Rocketman, Booksmart, and even MA during the summer.  Those movies seem more appropriate for October - March than competing with tentpoles and blockbusters.  I get the whole counterprogramming realm, but the current release dates really make no sense to me in the grand scheme of things. 

[SchumacherFTW]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Everyone thinking Godzilla will have good legs is in for a rude awakening. I guess legs will be slightly better than the first one, but not by much. I am expecting a 65% drop against Dark Phoenix's 50M debut.

You. You're pure evil. Definitely not necessary evil, just pure evil. 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

You. You're pure evil. Definitely not necessary evil, just pure evil. 

The movie is awful, nobody is gonna be watching this in 2 weeks.

[Eric Duncan]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Everyone thinking Godzilla will have good legs is in for a rude awakening. I guess legs will be slightly better than the first one, but not by much. I am expecting a 65% drop against Dark Phoenix's 50M debut.

I agree with you on the first part, but the bolded part...you naive fool.

Edited June 2, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Cap]

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Ruthie said:

I don't understand why the respective studios decided to release Rocketman, Booksmart, and even MA during the summer.

Rocketman coming out (pun intended) on the first weekend of Pride Month makes crazy sense for its first-month legs.