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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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Shawn on boxofficepro saw the movie finishing closer to $400 million than $320 million on a prediction podcast mere weeks ago. Yet then writes an article after one day’s play calling it an under-performer?! With an OW that indicates it’ll finish at the high end of his forecast?!?

 

This is THE problem. Let the movie play like Toy Story films have ALWAYS played. Then judge it.  I can handle MIB/Phoenix/Godzilla write ups calling them under-performers, but TS4?! Absolutely farcical. 

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by sfran43
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I'm not disappointed because this is essentially were I expected it to be overall (before presales started I was in the 120 range).

 

I will say that beating TS3 by less than 10%, 9 years later in a generally more front loaded movie watching era is a bit underwhelming. 

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by sfran43
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28 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

Toy Story 4 Summer Game Opening Weekend Predictions 

 

Ms Lady Hawk 185

AndyLL 132

Empire 126

glassfairy 125

captainwondyful 124

Infernus 120

Mike Hunt 120

NannerManCan 120

ZeeSoh 120

Sheikh 119.52

Chasmmi 115

Wrath 114

MovieMan89 111

Panamovie 110.9

CoolEric258 110

Fancyarcher 110

MrPink 110

24Lost 109

bcf26 108

Jake Gittes 107

WrathOfHan 105

Cmasterclay 104

BobDole 101

Simionski 100

JJ8 95.3

Kalo 90

kayumanggi 85

Panda 80

 

Credit to @Wrath for collecting that. Make your own mind up on what that tells you.

I over predicted almost everything as a strategy. Of course, that will fail. But by no means would I call TS4 a disappointment based on my predictions. One of the few movies that will probably go under my prediction is probably Endgame. 

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by sfran43
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I'm not disappointed because this is essentially were I expected it to be overall (before presales started I was in the 120 range).

 

I will say that beating TS3 by less than 10%, 9 years later in a generally more front loaded movie watching era is a bit underwhelming. 

Well, not many sequels increase over the previous one. Some even drop drastically. Just this summer, both SLOP2 and KOTM dropped huge. Disney should be grateful that TS4 increased over TS3 although unadjusted. Now, let's hope for a billion, even if $1.001B, I'll take it. Lol

Edited by UserHN
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

58% drop. Huge drop for an animated film. TS4 really affected it.

Edited by UserHN
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    Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Week
- new Child’s Play Orion Pictures $14,055,540   3,007 $4,674   $14,055,540 1
- (2) The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal $10,290,000 -58% 3,804 $2,705   $117,583,535 3
- (4) Rocketman Paramount Pictures $5,650,000 -40% 2,414 $2,341   $77,328,389 4
- (7) Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. $3,700,000 -58% 2,368 $1,563   $102,345,637 4
- (6) Shaft Warner Bros. $3,555,000 -60% 2,952 $1,204   $15,941,394 2
- (9) Late Night Amazon Studios $2,583,885 -51% 2,172 $1,190   $10,672,864 3
- (11) MA Universal $1,200,000 -68% 862 $1,392   $43,749,765 4
- (12) The Dead Don’t Die Focus Features $1,130,000 -56% 690 $1,638   $4,757,915 2
- (-) Echo in the Canyon Greenwich $252,072 +22% 81 $3,112   $1,169,296 5
- (15) A Dog’s Journey Universal $97,000 -79% 171 $567   $22,088,950 6
- (-) The Spy Behind Home Plate The Ciesla Foundation $50,150 +93% 31 $1,618   $191,456 5
- (-) Woodstock: Three Days That … Self Distributed $7,435 -19% 7 $1,062   $72,129 5
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2 minutes ago, UserHN said:

58% drop. Huge drop for an animated film. TS4 really affected it.

One might say it’s underperforming 

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44 minutes ago, baumer said:

I am honestly stunned that some of you who have been here for a long time are seriously calling the opening weekend a disappointment for toy Story 4. Projections predictions tracking, it's all arbitrary. Nobody can actually know what a movie is going to open to. And why would arbitrary numbers given out by trades and studios be more important and more trustworthy and more relevant then what the last film did? Toy Story is a huge property but it didn't blow up until toy Story 3 came out. And that one had a definitive ending. I simply don't see why toy Story 4 was ever predicted to open to those godly numbers that some people had them at.

And underperformance doesn't mean a disappointment. And I gave you the official meaning of what an underperformance is but you keep repeating the same thing. These arbitrary numbers are still expectations and whether a movie is underperforming or overperforming are based on expectations and you can't change that. 

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1 hour ago, john2000 said:

.... we dont even know what the fucking total will be , how around 1 bill is a fucking dissapointment, studios would kill to have dissapointments like this

So if Endgame made only 1 billion then it would have all been fine because “most studios would kill for a number like that”?

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16 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

facepalm-Godzilla.jpg

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7 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Well, not many sequels increase over the previous one. Some even drop drastically. Just this summer, both SLOP2 and KOTM dropped huge. Disney should be grateful that TS4 increased over TS3 although unadjusted. Now, let's hope for a billion, even if $1.001B, I'll take it. Lol

 

How many fourth films in a series increase from the third? And I'll go you even one better. How many fourth films in a series increase after the third one had a definitive ending? There's not too many. A recent example would be The Hobbit movies obviously decreased from return to The King. I know The Phantom menace obviously increased from return of the Jedi but that's a completely different circumstance. You can almost bet that the prequels for The hunger Games will decrease. Bourne decreases from the third one. Ice Age 4 decreased as well.

 

The fact that this one is more than likely going to make exactly what the third one did if not more is a testament to how popular the series is. But that doesn't mean that it should have opened to some ridiculous number just because people thought it would.

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3 hours ago, baumer said:

But why does it need to beat toy Story 3? That was the end of the series. Now 9 years later you've got another one coming out. And I don't care what Disney was predicting for it. They're just predictions. The film's going to more than likely make four hundred million dollars and come very close to a billion. It is nowhere near and under performance.

BoT would be a lot more positive if everyone thought like you. However, would you call “very close to a billion” a success for, say, Endgame? For TLK? For TROS? For Avatar 2? I think studio expectations are a reasonable benchmark.   Toy Story 4 isn’t flopping, and it may have very long legs (there is no sense of urgency to see it), but the weekend is certainly underwhelming.

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4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So if Endgame made only 1 billion then it would have all been fine because “most studios would kill for a number like that”?

 

that's a ridiculous comparison because Infinity Wars already set the bar for what endgame should make. Toy Story 3 made right around a billion dollars so if toy Story makes that then it's considered  a success. Not that hard to figure out John and you should know this because you've been here long enough.

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1 minute ago, Pure Spirit said:

BoT would be a lot more positive if everyone thought like you. However, would you call “very close to a billion” a success for, say, Endgame? For TLK? For TROS? For Avatar 2? I think studio expectations are a reasonable benchmark.   Toy Story 4 isn’t flopping, and it may have very long legs (there is no sense of urgency to see it), but the weekend is certainly underwhelming.

 

Lion King yes

but the other ones have already set the bar to make way more money based on their previous films. So no of course I don't think a billion dollars would be good for Avatar nor would it be good for end game because Infinity Wars already set the bar as to what that should be making.

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