Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As I already illustrated, it likely beat TS3's OW in admissions, which is more important. It's fine for a movie that no one asked for. But the tracking was still an epic, epic fail. 

Wait how is it going to beat Toy Story 3 in admissions?

[Taruseth]

When will the first weekend be without a movie in at least 4000 theatres?

The longest streak ever was last spring and summer from the weekend of 29th of March to the weekend of the 24th of August so for 22 weekends.

And this year's streak started on the 8th of February so it's already in its 20th weekend and on top of that only on one weekend the max. Theatre count dropped below 4200 (April 9th Shazam was only in 4183 theatres).

The next weekend Toy Story 4 will still have 4575 theatres.

The weekend thereafter Spider-Man will open and will have 4400+ theatres for two weekends.

And the next weekend will already be the one of 19th July so TLK will open that will obviously open in more than 4200 theatres too and will stay in those for the next weekend.

On the 2nd August Hobbs&Shaw will open which should happen in more than 4000 theatres too and obviously will stay in those for the next weekend.

And then Angry Birds too might continue (the first opened in 3952 theatres). And needs to stay in these as no movie on the 23rd of August will open in more than 4000 theatres.

And then the labour day weekend will kill the streak as I doubt the Playmobil movie will release in enough theatres, but if that could happen It 2 would open on the next weekend and be in more than 4000 theatres for two weekends (maybe even three) but I don't think any other September movie will get more than 4000 theatres.

So the streak could end on the 16th of August so 27 weekends

Or on the 23rd (28 weekends) or the 30th (29 weekends).

Or on the 20th of September (31 weekends) or the following (32 weekends).

 

 

Also, why does Disney predict such a harsh Sunday drop for Aladdin?

[MovieMan89]

Just now, cannastop said:

Wait how is it going to beat Toy Story 3 in admissions?

OW admissions. Because TS3 had a 60% 3D OW share vs maybe like a 15% one for this (idk what movies these days average for 3D shares but it can't be any higher than that). 

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

All work and no play makes LOGAN'sLuckyRun a dull girl?

Edited June 23, 2019 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

[MovieMan89]

Just realized TS3 was the last time an animated movie won the year. With admissions not much higher than TS4 will likely end with too. 

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

OW admissions. Because TS3 had a 60% 3D OW share vs maybe like a 15% one for this (idk what movies these days average for 3D shares but it can't be any higher than that). 

OK, but tickets themselves are 14% more expensive now than they were then.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

I suspected you might go for that one instead of the original.

 

Funny story though.  Actually spent the time trying to find a Shining typewriter generator so I could print that message over and over again ala The Shining.  Couldn't find an actual typewriter version anywhere though. 

 

Closest I came to was something that replicated an actual typewriter.  Problem was it actually replicated a typewriter, meaning I had to manually type in each letter with no mistakes and barely any correction capability. 

 

Gave up after 10 minutes and just quoted you instead.

 

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[TwoMisfits]

I'm back home from vacation...and wow, what a few weeks I missed.

 

I caught up with this thread...and what surprises me is not TS4's final OW number (remember I picked Spidey to win the summer and be in the top 5 for the year, so I never thought Toys was going above Capt Marvel's final DOM numbers:), but its multiplier from Thursday previews.  If those previews started at a normal time, the weekend multiplier for an animated movie is whack...sub 10x would never have been in my dreams for the final number off the $12M Thursday...that's a bad sign for the long-term family market...it seems to more and more imply the idea that a vast number of normal movie going families are not buying the full-priced weekend tickets, and are waiting more and more for 1st matinees, cheap days, and deals...I mean, I know I am...but I was doing that last year, too...seems I'm getting joined by more and more folks every year...

Edited June 23, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If those previews started at a normal time, the weekend multiplier for an animated movie is whack

Previews started at 6pm (with scattered 5pm Fan Events).

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

One good thing about the last 3 years in animation being almost nothing but sequels is that studios have effectively exhausted the vast majority of their guaranteed huge sequel hits. This will force them to have to come up with original ideas going forward or face inevitable diminishing returns and eventual bombs if they keep making sequels no one asked for. The one exception is WDAS, who could make sequels to pretty much all of their revival films that would be surefire hits, which is what worries me. I really hope they don't and Frozen 2 is it. 

I'm still waiting for that Zootopia 2. Or even just a 2 hour movie about the sloths, I'll take it. Lol

[OncomingStorm93]

TS4 OW was larger than the combined openings of SLOP, Dark Phoenix, and MiBI combine.

 

Choose your “disappointment” labels carefully.

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

10 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I'm still waiting for that Zootopia 2. Or even just a 2 hour movie about the sloths, I'll take it. Lol

Why would you pay $10+ just to hear half of a conversation?

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

[UserHN]

57 minutes ago, jedijake said:

The argument of "well TS4 DID make more than TS3's opening" is almost like if TFA made $120 million, at LEAST it made more than ROTS's opening. Nominal dollars. Not sure how making $8 million more than a movie did 9 years ago is really that good.

 

$118 million OW and struggling to make $400 million domestic is upsetting but if it helps, it perpetuates the idea that Disney will continue to stick to their "no sequels" for at least a bit longer than they may have anticipated. TS4 was certainly not long-awaited. I2 was long-awaited. There are NO more long-awaited sequels for Pixar films.

You certainly have really high standards for sequel grosses. So for you, any sequel that doesn't increase from its predecessor is a failure? I can't believe you have the need to trash TS4's increase. So what if it's only 8M. Just be thankful that it did not decrease 50% like some other sequels do. You have been spoiled by Pixar and MCU to the point that you're now expecting all sequels to increase and not just increase, you expect huge increase. Unbelievable.

[The Futurist]

6 hours ago, John Marston said:

The reason why loads of people expected more for Toy Story 4 is because of not just the huge fan base of the first three, the huge marketing  blitz, and amazing reviews but because this summer has sucked with so many flops and it seemed like it had everything going for it to really explode. So it’s understandable that some feel like some money has been left on the table 

This.

 

[UserHN]

32 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Wait how is it going to beat Toy Story 3 in admissions?

TS3 was inflated by the 3D craze 10 years ago.

[Maxmoser3]

1 hour ago, Godzilla said:

How is Fox in deep shit they’re brought off lol...

They’re not having a good year. Breakthrough has been their only hit this year. Everything else has drastically bombed.

 

Alita had an ok overseas turnout and it’s domestic total was decent for the type of film it was. But it’s budget was a big hurt, and it fell short. 

[UserHN]

20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

About to see Child’s Play, the superior toy movie that’s out this weekend

This is a contradiction, btw. You are ABOUT TO SEE it and yet you have now suddenly decided that it's the superior one, without even seeing it. Just shows the bias.

[UserHN]

11 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Why would you pay $10+ just to hear half of a conversation?

 

Even if it's just a movie about sloths telling super slow jokes, I'll pay for it. Lol. I watched Zootopia because of that clever sloth marketing.

[MrPink]

I don't really subscribe that strongly to the idea that just because the market has been dead for a few weeks means this film should explode. 

 

It's still a 4th entry in a franchise many considered closed.