Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[charlie Jatinder]

Toy Story 4

 

Friday: $47mn

Saturday: $39.25mn

Sunday: $34mn

 

Total: $120.25mn

[charlie Jatinder]

Sunday

 

TS4: $34mn

Aladdin: $3.7mn

CP: $3.4mn

MIBI: $3.1mn

SLOP 2: $3.05mn

Rocket Man: $1.68mn

JW 3: $1.3mn

KOTM : $1.2mn

XDP: $1mn

Shaft: $1mn

 

 

A: EG: $0.64mn

[Moses]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Sunday

 

TS4: $34mn

Aladdin: $3.7mn

CP: $3.4mn

MIBI: $3.1mn

SLOP 2: $3.05mn

Rocket Man: $1.68mn

JW 3: $1.3mn

KOTM : $1.2mn

XDP: $1mn

Shaft: $1mn

 

 

A: EG: $0.64mn

So EG nearly 2 millions weekend

[Taruseth]

59 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Sunday

 

TS4: $34mn

Aladdin: $3.7mn

CP: $3.4mn

MIBI: $3.1mn

SLOP 2: $3.05mn

Rocket Man: $1.68mn

JW 3: $1.3mn

KOTM : $1.2mn

XDP: $1mn

Shaft: $1mn

 

 

A: EG: $0.64mn

So Aladdin's Sunday drop was 18.6% and not 34.1%. Also that would be a 12.6m weekend and a drop of 27.2%.

 

Also after this weekend, Aladdin compared to other movies above 300m:

Twilight Eclipse: -250k (was behind by 66m after OW Sunday opened on a Wed)

HP6: +4.1m

Hobbit 1: +9.7m

Skyfall: +26.5m (had Christmas two weeks later)

PotC 1: +55.2m (really leggy release)

Independence Day: +49.1m (different era)

ANH: XXX (totally different era)

PotC 3: +950k (pulled ahead today, was behind by 560k yesterday)

Iron Man 2: -3.5m

TLK 1994: XXX (totally different era)

LotR I: +42.5m (leggy)

Thor 3: -3.7m

India J 4: -3m 

HP 1: +33.6m (leggy)

Iron Man: +11.8m

Transformers: -8.4m

Shrek 3: -9.3m

Suicide Squad: -9.4m

It: -17.3m

Forrest Gump: XXX (different era)

BVS: -31.5m (it's gaining fast, last Sunday it was 47.3m behind)

GotG I: +12.6m (flat to last weekend)

Alice 2010: -21.8m (Aladdin gained 7.7m)

Spider-Man HC: -7m (Aladdin gained 7.1m)

Aquaman: -16.2m (Aladdin gained 7.7m)

Minions: -14.9m (Aladdin gained 8.7m)

Spider-Man 3: -30.4m (Aladdin gained 9.6m)

Mockingjay I: -1.4m (Christmas ahead for M I - A gained 11.4m)

Finding Nemo: +34m (useless - Aladdin lost 1.5m)

LotR II: -9.9m (Aladdin gained 9.4m)

Zootopia: +12.7m (leggy - Aladdin lost 9.9m)

 

So the overall picture isn't really clear but I think the fact that PotC 3 and Indiana are basically around the same number as Aladdin despite being ahead by more than 30m after OWend points towards a total above both comps and the group headed to 330-340m is getting closer too) so I guess it has a solid chance to head there.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Taruseth

[PKMLover]

36 minutes ago, Moses said:

So EG nearly 2 millions weekend

The drop of this weekend is ~46.8% (IW was 52.2% if you want to compare) 

 

[Moses]

9 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

The drop of this weekend is ~46.8% (IW was 52.2% if you want to compare) 

 

I think starting from next weekend, EG will be ahead of IW in dailies.

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'm not convinced of how much of a bump EG will get from this "re-release." Sure, it'll increase, but how much more will it add? Another 8 to 10 DOM and 8 to 10 OS?

[filmlover]

Will Smith has to be pointing and laughing at Aladdin's 5th weekend being higher than MIB: International's 2nd.

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

^^^

$85 ow and 1.75x will take FFH to just under $150 in China.

SMH had a 1.67x multiplier and am betting FFH to do better than that.

[Gavin Feng]

Chinese censorship just killed the biggest enemies of Spidy. A 1.9 multiple can be expected.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Gavin Feng

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

Chinese Film Bureau just killed the biggest enemies of Spidy. A 1.9 multiple can be expected.

1,9 multi if they like it though ?

[a2k]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Will Smith has to be pointing and laughing at Aladdin's 5th weekend being higher than MIB: International's 2nd.

Man In Blue (MIB) 1, Men in Black (MIB) 0

[Gavin Feng]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

1,9 multi if they like it though ?

I guess 8.6-8.8(A-) on Maoyan. Captain Marvel has 1.73 in March. A July date is pretty good for Marvel titles. Workdays & 2nd weekend holds will be better.

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I guess 8.6-8.8(A-) on Maoyan. Captain Marvel has 1.73 in March. A July date is pretty good for Marvel titles. Workdays & 2nd weekend holds will be better.

Will there be a heavyweight Chinese film that will compete with TLK in China?

[Gavin Feng]

.

Edited September 14, 2019 by Gavin Feng

[RamblinRed]

Great Sunday hold for TS4. Sub 15% drop.

 

As expected Aladdin also had a great Sunday hold.

 

Also with Annabelle coming out on Wednesday are MIB and Shaft protected from losing theaters until Thursday night or can theaters take screens from them on Tuesday evening? That makes a big difference on which movies are likely to lose alot of screens come Tuesday night.

If they are protected until Thursday then SLOP2, LN, KOTM and XDP are the movies that will lose screens on Tuesday.

 

[ZattMurdock]

2 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'm not convinced of how much of a bump EG will get from this "re-release." Sure, it'll increase, but how much more will it add? Another 8 to 10 DOM and 8 to 10 OS?

Endgame without any push would make at least $10-15m more. The push is genius because it happens just before Spider-Man: Far From Home. If it does another additional $10m from both Dom and OS, it's done. I'm expecting some interesting numbers this next weekend following into the 4th of July week in the domestic market. 

 

I think it's fair to be cautiously confident that it's happening, I see the worldwide re-release / expansion as a clear sign that Disney is pushing for the worldwide record. Disney wants, Disney gets.

[JB33]

It's funny. Originally around $120M was what I expected for Toy Story 4. You could tell that hype wasn't that big for it and it wasn't an Incredibles 2. Then as we got closer and ultimately to preview night it did indeed seem like it was going to be a $150M+ type of opener. Then opening day came and now we've come full circle to $120M.

 

All that to say, it feels disappointing, but not really at the same time, since this is the kind of number I originally anticipated. The Toy Story franchise has enough entries that it wasn't going to be the event that I2 was. Even Finding Dory was bigger on opening weekend because it was only the 2nd entry. This number just makes sense, and it's indeed a very good one.

 

Disney continuing to own the year. The biggest non-Disney opening weekend this year is still Us. If we disregard Spider-Man: Far From Home, given it's an MCU film and Disney/Marvel Studios oversee the MCU, Us will more than likely remain the biggest non-Disney opening until, what? It: Chapter 2? I give Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw a chance but It 2 is the one that will for sure break Us's $71.1M.

[MovieMan89]

Yikes, just noticed BOM says that nearly half the audience was over 25 for TS4's OW. I wonder how high the percentage was for over 18? That doesn't seem remotely normal for animation and if kids aren't that interested the multi for it  could be rough. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by MovieMan89