Weekend Thread: Actuals - TS4 59.7, Annabelle 20.3 (31.1 5-Day), Yesterday 17, Aladdin 10.1, Pets 7.3, MIB 6.7, Endgame 6.1

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Is there actually a debate going on in here over whether or not EG is gonna close on the 11th? Lmfao, IW played until Sep 9th with lower grosses and the same home media release dates. EG is not just gonna leave every theater in a week. 

I never saw this level of disinformation around here. I mean, crazy predictions and hot takes we are all guilty of in the past, but stuff like that is quite annoying.

[JohnnyGossamer]

This crap needs out of these threads. Just a bunch of sniping and baiting. Complete waste. Can there be special thread for the EG's pursuit of #1 WW all-time to bottle most of this nonsense? Is there already?

[MovieMan89]

I have been saying for well over a month now that while I still predict EG to beat Avatar, it's not gonna happen until like September. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Is there actually a debate going on in here over whether or not EG is gonna close on the 11th? Lmfao, IW played until Sep 9th with lower grosses and the same home media release dates. EG is not just gonna leave every theater in a week. 

Not close, no. It's a debate on how much the expansion will be scuttled and go back to a theater count for a film in its, *checks*, 12th weekend.

 

For instance, some folks are pointing to the comment from AMC's twitter account as saying the expanded version of the flick is a limited thing.  The counter point is that not only can plans change, but Twitter posts shouldn't be taken as gospel.

 

Basically the real argument boils down to, IMO, will this have normal drops from a 5.75m weekend or was this weekend a blip and it'll go down to drops from a 2m weekend, which is where it was last weekend.  That's setting aside all the things Disney can do around the edges.

 

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

Citation needed. Nah fam, that’s not how box office runs work. Endgame is doing more money in the same period of time:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=avengersvstarwars.htm

 

People thinking that Avengers: Endgame will enjoy a box office run shorter than Avengers: Infinity War simply haven’t followed box office runs long enough. Endgame will keep banking because it’s one of the biggest films of all time and it has July all ahead to manage that. It will be around at least until Labor Day in September.

Probably right, although it hits retail on Aug 13th - and presumably digital the week before? I think IW had the same kind of home release dates however. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Porthos said:

Not close, no. It's a debate on how much the expansion will be scuttled and go back to a theater count for a film in its, *checks*, 12th weekend.

 

For instance, some folks are pointing to the comment from AMC's twitter account as saying the expanded version of the flick is a limited thing.  The counter point is that not only can plans change, but Twitter posts shouldn't be taken as gospel.

 

Basically the real argument boils down to, IMO, will this have normal drops from a 5.75m weekend or was this weekend a blip and it'll go down to drops from a 2m weekend, which is where it was last weekend.  That's setting aside all the things Disney can do around the edges.

 

I mean every movie that has a massive re-expansion also has a massive drop before long after. That goes with the territory. It's not like starting as a new release. 

[UserHN]

Geez, it descended into another EG vs Avatar thread. I won't be surprised if mods suddenly close this thread.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

This crap needs out of these threads. Just a bunch of sniping and baiting. Complete waste. Can there be special thread for the EG's pursuit of #1 WW all-time to bottle most of this nonsense? Is there already?

 

====

 

Problem is, especially this weekend, this IS tied up in this weekend's numbers, so discussion about it here is pretty inevitable.

 

If it was 4m or less, there'd be crowing from one side.  If it was 8m or more, there's be crowing from the other.

 

Sadly though, IMO it's right in that grey zone where both sides can point to things and state with 100% conviction that it's a done deal.

 

Makes for very annoying posts to wade through.  Best to just report the worst posts trying to stir up crap and just ignore the rest, while perhaps engaging with the most reasonable of posts.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean every movie that has a massive re-expansion also has a massive drop before long after. That goes with the territory. It's not like starting as a new release. 

Yes, but the 2.78b dollar question is, how massive of a drop is coming.  Hence my post on the last page talking about various factors in play.

 

[DAR]

Once again some of you are just awful.   I really question at times why I continue to have an account 

[Porthos]

I suspect the most annoying thing possible is for there to be a mini-spike on TLK's OW weekend.  One which is just small enough for folks to point to double features as an explanation while large enough for others to accuse Disney of fudging while also still being small enough to come up short.

 

Which in turn means another expansion on Labor Day Weekend, leading to all sorts of angry mudslinging all across the net.

 

*reflects what this timeline has been like ever since late 2016*

 

CRAP. 

[Pure Spirit]

In a 23 mile radius around me, in a major metropolitan area, Endgame is going from 13 theaters today with strong PT presales, to 12 theaters tomorrow with very weak PT presales, to a single screen on discount Tuesday with 0 presales.

 

If one listens carefully, that’s the sound of all of Endgame’s demand being sucked up by this weekend’s limited time event. Is this definitive? No... it’s not over till the fat lady sings... but she’s hummin’ a few bars right now. 🎶 

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Probably right, although it hits retail on Aug 13th - and presumably digital the week before? I think IW had the same kind of home release dates however. 

That’s usual for all the releases. For example, CAPTAIN MARVEL is still playing and it added almost $1m since it hit retail:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2018a.htm

 

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not close, no. It's a debate on how much the expansion will be scuttled and go back to a theater count for a film in its, *checks*, 12th weekend.

 

For instance, some folks are pointing to the comment from AMC's twitter account as saying the expanded version of the flick is a limited thing.  The counter point is that not only can plans change, but Twitter posts shouldn't be taken as gospel.

 

Basically the real argument boils down to, IMO, will this have normal drops from a 5.75m weekend or was this weekend a blip and it'll go down to drops from a 2m weekend, which is where it was last weekend.  That's setting aside all the things Disney can do around the edges.

 

That it will have a drop at some point before The Lion King is expected, the question is how much it will make out of this boost added to the Summer legs + Spider-Man: Far From Home re-release. 

 

The international re-release is staggered so it will have to get around $1.931B to comfortably take the worldwide record with the domestic cume. I see it as completely feasible, and the picture will be clear after the next weekend, imho.

 

8 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Geez, it descended into another EG vs Avatar thread. I won't be surprised if mods suddenly close this thread.

We are talking about the biggest box office news this weekend, and a film in the verge of becoming the highest grossing film of all time. I understand that for regulars have that conversation might suck the air out of other discussions, but as long as the discussion is civil I don’t know how could we not be talking about this.

[TwoMisfits]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I've typed up a couple of versions of this post and keep deleting it.  After reflection, I think I'll make this comment instead:

 

It is simply too early to definitively say one way or the other on the A v EG battle.  We won't know more until we see:

 

1) The daily numbers this week.

2) The drop next weekend (especially in the face of FFH's rollout), both in theaters and overall dollars.

3) More of the international rollout.

 

As we get more info from the above, the picture will get sharper.  Folks can make points in either direction, and rightfully so.  But points are all they are.

 

And even then, Disney can be absolutely bloodyminded when it comes to keeping a film in theaters when it wants to, long after a home release has been done.  

 

So, sadly for those of us who just want this all to be over one way or the other, all this weekend has really done is say: It's gonna be close either way.  

One thing in Endgame's favor - I do not think it has gotten its cheap theater run yet, either...and that's a recipe to keep making small bucks over and over all summer...heck, my cheapo just got Captain Marvel 2 weeks ago...

Edited June 30, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I suspect the most annoying thing possible is for there to be a mini-spike on TLK's OW weekend.  One which is just small enough for folks to point to double features as an explanation while large enough for others to accuse Disney of fudging while also still being small enough to come up short.

 

Which in turn means another expansion on Labor Day Weekend, leading to all sorts of angry mudslinging all across the net.

 

*reflects what this timeline has been like ever since late 2016*

 

CRAP. 

Yeah, this has a pretty good chance. The real fun is when it’s a million short after Labor Day.

[Pure Spirit]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I suspect the most annoying thing possible is for there to be a mini-spike on TLK's OW weekend.  One which is just small enough for folks to point to double features as an explanation while large enough for others to accuse Disney of fudging while also still being small enough to come up short.

 

Which in turn means another expansion on Labor Day Weekend, leading to all sorts of angry mudslinging all across the net.

 

*reflects what this timeline has been like ever since late 2016*

 

CRAP. 

This is like one of those legendary anime 1:1 battles where it goes on for days and the fight destroys everything around it.

[Pure Spirit]

Maybe this is all part of Disney’s plan to keep both Avatar and Endgame in the headlines as long as possible and we’re just pawns in their diabolical game. Meanwhile the actual Endgame final result is being decided by a Cameron/Feige chess-boxing match in Iger’s penthouse.

 

[MrGamer]

10 minutes ago, DAR said:

I really question at times why I continue to have an account 

To contribute to the inevitable dumpster fire known as the BOT Top 250 Movies list. 

[infamous5445]

Who knew making a movie that's so close to usurping Avatar would cause so much shit?

[cdsacken]

23 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

This crap needs out of these threads. Just a bunch of sniping and baiting. Complete waste. Can there be special thread for the EG's pursuit of #1 WW all-time to bottle most of this nonsense? Is there already?

preemptive site bans for anyone who instigates it. Thread bans for folks who responds. Everyone would stop then.