Weekend Thread: Actuals - TS4 59.7, Annabelle 20.3 (31.1 5-Day), Yesterday 17, Aladdin 10.1, Pets 7.3, MIB 6.7, Endgame 6.1

[ThomasNicole]

I think TS4 now have a good shot passing TS3, but not CM.

 

Anyway, great drop, should be at $ 305M by next sunday and finishing with +400M seems really likely at this point.

 

 

[VanillaSkies]

3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Total Wends:

TS4: 59.6m (-50.7% about 200k above TS3 weekend)

Aladdin: 9.83m (-25.8%)

 

And 12 million above in total. 

One of the things to remember as well is that the Calendar configuration in 2010 worked against TS3, while this year it should work out well for TS4. 

That year, July 4th was on a Sunday, meaning audiences were distracted by other activities (ie bbq and fireworks) during one the the busiest movie going days of the week. 
It also meant that it's mid-week was just a normal mid-week. 

This year, July 4th is on Thursday, meaning that Wednesday will act like a Friday night, and Friday will have better numbers as many people will take the day off to have a Thu-Sun 4 day weekend. Finally, Sunday should hold better than TS3 because the holiday won't distract. 

Yes, TS4 will lose IMAX to Spidey on Tuesday, but there should still be enough demand for TS4 that by next Sunday it will probably have extended it's lead over TS3 over the current 12 million. 

Can't see it missing TS3's total at this point. 

[Taruseth]

18 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

And 12 million above in total. 

One of the things to remember as well is that the Calendar configuration in 2010 worked against TS3, while this year it should work out well for TS4. 

That year, July 4th was on a Sunday, meaning audiences were distracted by other activities (ie bbq and fireworks) during one the the busiest movie going days of the week. 
It also meant that it's mid-week was just a normal mid-week. 

This year, July 4th is on Thursday, meaning that Wednesday will act like a Friday night, and Friday will have better numbers as many people will take the day off to have a Thu-Sun 4 day weekend. Finally, Sunday should hold better than TS3 because the holiday won't distract. 

Yes, TS4 will lose IMAX to Spidey on Tuesday, but there should still be enough demand for TS4 that by next Sunday it will probably have extended it's lead over TS3 over the current 12 million. 

Can't see it missing TS3's total at this point. 

The 3rd Monday was good for TS3 though because of July 4th being on a Sunday.

 

Don't think it will help that much on a Thursday it obviously will perform better than a normal set of weekdays but I don't think the difference will be that big.

 

None the less, I really hope that it can increase it's lead.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Taruseth

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

The 3rd Monday was good for TS3 though because of July 4th being on a Sunday.

 

Don't think it will help that much on a Thursday it obviously will perform better than a normal set of weekdays but I don't think the difference will be that big.

 

None the less, I really hope that it can increase it's lead.

I think Wednesday and Friday will definitely be inflated this week for all releases. Tuesday as well due to discounts and more people taking most of not the entire week off.

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, Sunny Max said:

3.4x - 3.5x can be expected ..which means 410 to 425 M .... with little push movie might cross CM ($426 M) ..

We can also expect TS4 to be the double feature billing when TLK is released. 

Should help juice it's numbers a bit later in the run.

[cookie]

I think tomorrow's increases are going to be screwy for some movies because of Spider-Man opening. Lot of films losing screens mid-week.

Edited July 1, 2019 by cookie

[VanillaSkies]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I think Wednesday and Friday will definitely be inflated this week for all releases. Tuesday as well due to discounts and more people taking most of not the entire week off.

Exactly. 

Many people will take Friday off, creating somewhat of a holiday weekend from Wednesday - Sunday (Wednesday acting like the Friday).

Also, Deadline actually made a valid point in their weekend preview article for once, in that historically for July 4th, when weather is bad that day in larger cities, box office goes up. Since you can't do BBQs and Fireworks in the rain, many people go to the theatre instead. 

So weather is something to keep an eye out for on Thursday.

[Jonwo]

Yesterday being successful in the US is a real shot in the arm for Curtis and Boyle. If legs are good then it has a shot of outgrossing Love Actually domestically.

 

 

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, Sunny Max said:

3.4x - 3.5x can be expected ..which means 410 to 425 M .... with little push movie might cross CM ($426 M) ..

the Labour Day re-expansion should help. Though it's gonna be fun guessing what movie (or movies) will Disney chose for that re-expansion?

 

- EG for a final push over Avatar?

- Aladdin as a cherry on the top of the cake for its incredible summer run?

- TS4, as Pixar movies have lately been the chosen for the Labour Day re-expansion?

- TLK to make even more money than it's probably gonna make?

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

the Labour Day re-expansion should help. Though it's gonna be fun guessing what movie (or movies) will Disney chose for that re-expansion?

 

- EG for a final push over Avatar?

- Aladdin as a cherry on the top of the cake for its incredible summer run?

- TS4, as Pixar movies have lately been the chosen for the Labour Day re-expansion?

- TLK to make even more money than it's probably gonna make?

tlk and aladdin probably wont, except it they have a really major milestone to pass, ts4 probably, as for endgame we dont know yet, if endgame passes avatar then no, but if it falls short for like 6 million the probably

Edited July 1, 2019 by john2000

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[UserHN]

28 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

the Labour Day re-expansion should help. Though it's gonna be fun guessing what movie (or movies) will Disney chose for that re-expansion?

 

- EG for a final push over Avatar?

- Aladdin as a cherry on the top of the cake for its incredible summer run?

- TS4, as Pixar movies have lately been the chosen for the Labour Day re-expansion?

- TLK to make even more money than it's probably gonna make?

I'll go for either Aladdin or TS4. If both movies are still short of a few million dollars to cross the billie, then Disney will go for one of the two.

[a2k]

KOTM went up from 2.0 to 2.1 (revised estimates)

Jun 28, 2019

11

$2,100,000

-46%

1,370

$1,533

$106,630,951

5

 

Jun 28, 2019	11	$555,000	+38%	1,370	$405	$105,085,951	29
Jun 29, 2019	11	$835,000	+50%	1,370	$609	$105,920,951	30
Jun 30, 2019	11	$710,000	-15%	1,370	$518	$106,630,951	31

[john2000]

12 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I'll go for either Aladdin or TS4. If both movies are still short of a few million dollars to cross the billie, then Disney will go for one of the two.

disagree, endgames milestone is way more important than any billion, of course that is if endgame cant pass avatar, if it can then i agree

Edited July 1, 2019 by john2000

[fabiopazzo2]

all this stupid reactions from shivampa 

[stripe]

Amazing increases! We should also expect some solid holds. July only has 6 movies opening wide, and 3 of them are not huge tentpoles

[tawasal]

5 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

TS 4 19.6

Annabelle 5.9

Yday 4.9

Aladdin 3.05

Slop 2.3

Mibi 2.1

 

Enough?

How is it enough with out my man JW?

[DisposedData]

22 minutes ago, john2000 said:

disagree, endgames milestone is way more important than any billion, of course that is if endgame cant pass avatar, if it can then i agree

I think Disney cares more about getting two billion dollar hits with TS4 and Aladdin than passing Avatar with Endgame lol.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

Good hold from Toy Story 4.

 

Hopefully everyone can now acknowledge that Incredibles 2 massive over performance in a fairly barren Summer for kids last year shouldn't be held against TS4 being considered a very large success.

 

Good start for Yesterday, hopefully can get some great word of mouth going.

 

Annabelle seems to be paying for the sins of The Nun. That was unfortunate coinciding of a very lazy effort with the apex of the franchise's viability.