Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[Joyous Legion]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But this board?  From the Put Your Money Forum Rep Where It's Mouth is Game?

 

Average prediction:  549.99m

Median prediction:   535.29m

 

Throw out the 330 guess for dragging down the score?  Okay.

 

Average prediction: 558.14m

Median prediction:  540.57m

Should add about 20-35M after Labor Day, so those median’s predictions are looking extremely good. Wisdom of the crowds indeed.

[CJohn]

40 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

And just who do you think will own the streaming era, Cjohn 

Spoiler

 

[Porthos]

-deleted as point was already made by Thanos Legion-

Edited July 28, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR & Friends]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm sure the stans out there expected something huge.

 

Just tag me next time! 

[Taruseth]

19 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I dunno, I'd still laugh if the DOM is below The Dark Knight.

525M or so wouldn't be bad, but also makes one realise how big TDK really was, no movie apart from Titanic broke 450M and then TDK suddenly does 530M. And only Shrek 2 (441M) and TPM (431M), DMC (423M), Spider-Man (404M) were above 400M.

 

Also the what still amazes me is the fact that the highest Non-Disney, Non-Jurrasic-World Saturday is bloody Catching Fire. And TDK still has the 7th highest Non-Disney Saturday.

And this won't change this year, don't think It 2 or Jumanji 2 get above 50M and I'd say next year no movie might do that. 

[MovieMan89]

30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Huh.  Interesting to see the Summer Game then:

 

DOM Total (Through Labor Day Weekend)

Lion King           $525M

The Lion King - $406m

The Lion King - 575m

The Lion King   $675M

The Lion King- 675M

The Lion King – $650M

The Lion King - 613.5M

The Lion King:   510M

The Lion King   $650m

Lion King -       498M

The Lion King - 684.7m

The Lion King:   530M

The Lion King - 500 million

The Lion King - 431M

The Lion King - 724M

The Lion King  - 500.01M

The Lion King  - 540.574326m

The Lion King - 675m

THE LION KING 575 M

Lion King          $500M

The Lion King   430m

Lion King -       605

The Lion King – 330M

Lion King          $460M

The Lion King - 487m

The Lion King - 450

The Lion King – $600m

The Lion King – $600m

 

===

 

Looks to me like guesses were all over the map.  I'm sure the stans out there expected something huge.

 

But this board?  From the Put Your Money Forum Rep Where It's Mouth is Game?

 

Average prediction:  549.99m

Median prediction:   535.29m

 

Throw out the 330 guess for dragging down the score?  Okay.

 

Average prediction: 558.14m

Median prediction:  540.57m

 

What about spread?

 

700m+:               1

651m - 700m:     4

601m - 650m:     6

551m - 600m:     2

501m - 550m:     4

451m - 500m:     7 (500.01 counted in this tier)

450m and under: 4

 

======

 

When looking at the above, it seems to me that TLK might come in right at expectations of the board taken as a whole, if not slightly exceed it.

 

Is it doing as well as the fans hoped?  Of course not.  But for the folks who wanted to put things down for the Summer Game, this isn't that surprising.

And, remember, this was locked back on April 25th when the buzz was still fantastic for the film.

A few big issues with pulling from the summer game. First and foremost is that it's a small sample size of the board, especially since the game this year didn't get a lot of participants. Moreover, most people stay conservative with their game predictions and basically predict their floor for the majority of things. If you don't believe me on that, TLK's summer game predictions are the second highest overall in summer game history if I'm not mistaken, behind just Endgame. Yet TLK is not going to be the second, third, fourth, fifth, or maybe not even sixth highest summer grosser ever. 

 

With all of that said, I will admit the board's expectations did seem to come down a bit from the stratosphere of 2018 upon the first trailer and Dumbo's failure and Aladdin looking abysmal in marketing. I saw a lot more 600-700 average predictions in recent months. Last year 800+ was being thrown around like it was easy though, and I know because I got into dozens of arguments with multiple member over how ridiculously silly those predictions were. 

[HeadShot]

1 hour ago, La Binoche said:

The expectation of anyone with common sense who knew it's the crown jewel of Disney's library, who knew it was the 2nd highest grossing film ever after JP when released, who knew it only added to its appeal over the years (its 2012 re-release gross doubled JP's 2013 re-release) via its record breaking stage musical. It's an underperformance any way you slice it. Pulling less in its second weekend than BATB is actually embarrassing. 

It’s pulling in less 2nd weekend cause it already grossed more than BATB in the first weekend (not to mention the huge Tuesday).  Also summer box office can’t be compared to other months. 

 

TLK is going to end up with 1,5 billion. Which is exactly what any sane person would have guessed. 

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

And this won't change this year, don't think It 2 or Jumanji 2 get above 50M and I'd say next year no movie might do that. 

$500 m dom? Definitely not happening. And not next year either.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

With all of that said, I will admit the board's expectations did seem to come down a bit from the stratosphere of 2018 upon the first trailer and Dumbo's failure and Aladdin looking abysmal in marketing. I saw a lot more 600-700 average predictions in recent months. Last year 800+ was being thrown around like it was easy though, and I know because I got into dozens of arguments with multiple member over how ridiculously silly those predictions were. 

I'm just saying that the passionate fanbase wasn't representative of the forum as a whole.

 

It's easy to remember the high expectations of a minority while everyone else's expectations just slide off, out of sight and out of mind.

[DAR]

Those of you who provide a daily dose of reality to these forums. Thank you for doing the Lord’s work

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm just saying that the passionate fanbase wasn't representative of the forum as a whole.

 

It's easy to remember the high expectations of a minority while everyone else's expectations just slide off, out of sight and out of mind.

True the high predictions stand out, but it was a scarce few I ever saw that predicted low (and by "low" I mean under 600). That's why I've been saying for over a year that this has to be the most overpredicted film I've ever seen in BOT history. 

[baumer]

There seems to be some kind of God complex at this site.  So if the members at this site "Expect" something to make a certain amount, and it misses, then it under performed?  Who on Earth anointed us as the leading world wide box office authority?  Why is it that because La Binoche or Tele or me or anyone else says a film should do XX amount of dollars, then that becomes the target number?  And why does everyone assume that TLK is more popular or has more fans that Beauty and  the Beast?  BatB has been around for 70 years.  

 

Everything about TLK was an assumption, a guess, a prognosticatio, just like everything is here.  You can take all the data you want, juxtapose it against all the other data, use witchcraft and voodoo and you still don't have a 100% fool proof way of knowing what anything will do.  

 

So this absolute drek that TLK is somehow underperforming is pure nonesense.  962 million dollars in 10 days is pretty insane.  Some of you need to have your head examined.

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, DAR said:

Those of you who provide a daily dose of reality to these forums. Thank you for doing the Lord’s work

I'm just building up my cred in preparation for blowing it/spending it all in a massive fashion this December and next January. 

Edited July 28, 2019 by Porthos

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

And why does everyone assume that TLK is more popular or has more fans that Beauty and  the Beast?  BatB has been around for 70 years.  

Well there are objective reasons to think that. The gross of the original and the gross of the 2011 re release.

 

Not to mention being partially based on Hamlet.

Edited July 28, 2019 by cannastop

[KP1025]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That's why I've been saying for over a year that this has to be the most overpredicted film I've ever seen in BOT history. 

No way. Detective Pikachu easily takes that trophy.  And I'm not talking about the obvious joke predictions either. 

[Cap]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm just building up my cred in preparation for blowing it all in a massive fashion this December and next January. 

Don't worry, we both gonna be on that hill.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Well there are objective reasons to think that. The gross of the original and the gross of the 2011 re release.

 

Not to mention being partially based on Hamlet.

 

All assumptions.  And the original TLK grossed 319 million in 1994.....huge dollars no doubt.  But BatB was a live action retelling of the classic tale.  Not too hard to understand why it did as much as it did.  And, TLK is going to gross more than BATB, WW, so I don't see what the problem is here.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

Don't worry, we both gonna be on that hill.

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well there are objective reasons to think that. The gross of the original and the gross of the 2011 re release.

But no one knows how far GA's WoM will match or differ from the per average calculation models usually all those predictions.... are based on. Its still only an idea about how a certain version is seen.

Plus: how much might a re-release only 8y before even have satisfied certain parts of the GA appetite for that particular story?

[Taruseth]

34 minutes ago, cannastop said:

$500 m dom? Definitely not happening. And not next year either.

I was talking about 50+M Saturdays but I agree with you on that too.