Hobbs & Shaw Weekend Thread: 60.8M OW (6th-best August debut), 180.8M WW | TLK 38.2, OUATIH 20, FFH 7.7, TS4 7.1, Farewell 2.4

[ban1o]

numbe

21 minutes ago, Rthroar said:

I had been going with H&S 23.6, TLK 10.9

any numbers for OUATIH? 

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

around mid august maybe? 

I have an irrational prejudice against August releases, especially mid to late August releases, because I was back in school at that time.

Late July can also be pushing it, depending on your school district.

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I have an irrational prejudice against August releases, especially mid to late August releases, because I was back in school at that time.

Late July can also be pushing it, depending on your school district.

I've heard that's common in many places. That would suck! Growing up I wasn't back to school until the Tuesday after Labor Day. I've never in my life associated any part of August with school. That seems so odd to me, being in a classroom in August.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I've heard that's common in many places. That would suck! Growing up I wasn't back to school until the Tuesday after Labor Day. I've never in my life associated any part of August with school. That seems so odd to me, being in a classroom in August.

But in college I got pretty much all of May off.

 

And before that, around 10 days of May would be vacation.

[Webslinger]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

And that's not even getting into Shazam!  Still not quite sure when it could have released, even with perfect hindsight knowledge.  But there should have been some point where it wouldn't have been overlooked between CM and EG.

Dan Murrell of Honest Trailers/Screen Junkies/etc. recently commented on how he thought Shazam! was going to make a ton of money as a crowd-pleaser situated almost right in the middle between the releases of Captain Marvel and Endgame and then it posted a merely solid rather than enormous gross. I think he's right that the film seemed perfectly positioned to break out and gobble up money in the weeks leading up to Endgame, but it just didn't work out that way for whatever reason.

Edited August 3, 2019 by Webslinger

[Gopher]

Interesting to see how much TLK's run is mirroring BATB's domestically. Swinging higher on weekdays and lower on weekends. Presuming TLK has a 4x from a 38m weekend (BATB had 3.44x from its third weekend, will give the end of summer haziness the benefit of a doubt for TLK) it'll end up at 542m, just shy of BATB's multiplier (2.84x vs. 2.88x).

 

It's safe to say Disney's out of IP for remakes that can make these numbers again on their own. Little Mermaid is a possibility but I'd expect closer to Aladdin's final total (still ungodly). 

[terrestrial]

9 hours ago, RealLyre said:

yeah it says Marvel Studios, not Walt Disney Pictures 

 

The picture under this part is a bit old, not actual in all details, but it shows details the next one does not include.

 

Additional hints:

A&E (and as such Lifetime) they own 50% (Hearst the other 50%), based on the FOX buy, they'll have to sell their European part for that (Hearst might buy that).

ESPN they own 80% (Hearst 20%)

Vice the own 16% directly, and 10% indirectly per the 20% share via A&E's 20% share

 

E.g. Marvel are a 100% subsidiaries, seperated per internal different departments, but still to report to, financed,.... fully to and by Disney)

 

Touchstone is dormant since 2016, but still 'there'

 

(btw, Miramax they owned once too, got sold in 2010)

 

 

 

Now add the recent 21centuy Fox acquisition (lots of sales of parts per legal needs), be aware, all actual Fox movie releases already get released by Disney, but are still out of the pre-Disney buy production time and teams.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_21st_Century_Fox_by_Disney

 

and you can add those too to 'no matter which one is names out of all of those, its still Disney' names / companies (excluding the Verge symbol, that's it where that picture's source it)

 

With the buy Disney increased their share at Hulu to majority holder, the remaining 33% are still owned by NBCUniversal (that one is owned by Comcast, just in case)

 

 

and got 100% of Star, very much worth a read, if not already aware (Star reaches ~ 100 + countries, has 60 (or 65) stations,...)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_India

 

 

 

[JB33]

If that number holds, using Mission: Impossible - Fallout as a comp ($6M previews, $61.2M OW, July 27 release date) means H&S could reach as high as $64M+. Fallout's weekend multi from previews gets it to just under $60M but if that 23.6 number is correct then H&S already has a better OD multi so I just compared it to Fallout on Saturday and Sunday (27ish % increase over true Friday, just over a 20% drop on Sunday).

 

$5.8M previews

$17.8M true Friday

$22.7M Saturday (+27.5%)

$17.9M Sunday (-21%)          

$64.2M Weekend

 

H&S may not have that high a Saturday increase over true Friday though. We'll see. Great WOM on the other hand could drive it even higher. My bet is $58M to $64M at the moment.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2019 by JB33

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

But in college I got pretty much all of May off.

 

And before that, around 10 days of May would be vacation.

Ah, there you go. I was never off school that early so it all evens out.

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, Gopher said:

It's safe to say Disney's out of IP for remakes that can make these numbers again on their own. Little Mermaid is a possibility but I'd expect closer to Aladdin's final total (still ungodly). 

 

If they really wouldn't find some additional titles on their old libraries (& tseveral libraries of other not active anymore companies), they can start to look into Fox libraries

= I guess for a time they'll find still material, even if I hope they'll do original too (but I guess the big budget ones might be over, see John Carter and so on)

 

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Where should they have put Shazam! then?

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

And that's not even getting into Shazam!  Still not quite sure when it could have released, even with perfect hindsight knowledge.  But there should have been some point where it wouldn't have been overlooked between CM and EG.

 

===

 

Just cause I know that putting a CBM in the middle of two highly anticipated CBMs was an... unwise idea doesn't mean I do know where to put it.  Even without hindsight, June might have been a good bet (really, most folks knew Dark Phoenix was roadkill waiting to happen).  I've heard August bandied about a lot, but I dunno.  Maybe it would have forced films to move.

 

And with June there is also the hindsight bias of TS4 doing 121 OW instead of something like 150.  But, yeah.  Early to mid June might have worked, and just treat Dark P as the irrelevant movie it was always destined to be.  At worst it might have mimicked the JW/IO one two punch or the I2/JW:FK one two punch.  If not on the same scale for Shazam!.

 

So, yeah.  June might have worked, even without hindsight bias.

[lorddemaxus]

43 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

Dan Murrell of Honest Trailers/Screen Junkies/etc. recently commented on how he thought Shazam! was going to make a ton of money as a crowd-pleaser situated almost right in the middle between the releases of Captain Marvel and Endgame and then it posted a merely solid rather than enormous gross. I think he's right that the film seemed perfectly positioned to break out and gobble up money in the weeks leading up to Endgame, but it just didn't work out that way for whatever reason.

I think the movie would have done better if Endgame presales started a week earlier or a week after Shazam opened. Endgame just gobbled up all the hype on Shazam's OW.

Edited August 3, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[a2k]

2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

nice

 

 

60M+ with @a2k calculations? 

my optimistic sat (+20%) and sun (-15%) gave a 61.5 ow using 23.0 od, but with a higher 23.6 od to get to a lower 60 ow it doesn't need those strong holds.

 

realistic

5.8

17.8

20.5 (+15%)

16.4 (-20%)

= 60.5

 

optimistic

5.8

17.8

21.35 (+20%)

18.15 (-15%)

= 63.1

 

MI6 (July 2018) Sat bump from true Friday and Sun

6.0

17.8

22.7 (+27.4%)

18.0 (-20.6%)

= 64.3

Edited August 3, 2019 by a2k

[John Marston]

Shazam would have not done  amazingly no matter where it opened. I enjoyed it but it probably was too campy for general audiences 

[Jonan23]

After reading all the bad signs in the tracking thread for a week. I think a 60 million opening is really great for Hobbs and Shaw.

[a2k]

TLK

10.9

14.7 (+35%) // +33% last week

12.0 (-18%) // -19% last week 

= 37.6

[VanillaSkies]

Just an FYI to everybody, much of Canada has a holiday this Monday, so that should ever so slightly help Sunday drops....

[Cap]

@Porthos It should have snagged Alita's spot in February before Alita moved there. Been saying that for months.  Also, since there is so much winter holiday iconography, it probably could have done well the first of November.  

Edited August 3, 2019 by captainwondyful

[TMP]

Shazam would have done better if it didn't have such terrible marketing. Who releases the main trailer a month before release??

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

@Porthos It should have snagged Alita's spot in February before Alita moved there. Been saying that for months.  Also, since there is so much winter holiday iconography, it probably could have done well the first of November.  

IF it could have been finished in time, then, sure.  Sounds like a good spot for it.  Even acts as something of an appetizer/first course meal for all the CBMs of the year.