Hobbs & Shaw Weekend Thread: 60.8M OW (6th-best August debut), 180.8M WW | TLK 38.2, OUATIH 20, FFH 7.7, TS4 7.1, Farewell 2.4

[terrestrial]

 

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

Except the star and director shut down sexist trolls themselves? I really don't think a bunch of fat nerds on twitter are gonna deter anyone away from seeing a movie they would have otherwise seen.

Not all got that, and in parts the damage was already done.

The ppl feeling 50/50 can react in such a way, also the ppl who often go to a cinema and watch a lot of different genres... might pick something else, group decisions can be influenced by that also.

 

Its one of my main reasons to follow BO worldwide, I am e.g. not at all into a movie making #1 or whatever, but what made the movie for which audience why enjoyable or not. That includes translations.... as e.g. humour is a difficult thing, what is funny in one culture or age group can be lame or worse for another one.

Hence why I love to discuss that and more with my pupils too 😉

 

But lets get back to this weekend's BOs (I'll soon have to leave for work anyway, want to catch up a bit till then)

 

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'd say the marketing also somewhat obscured the heart of the movie and made it seem like more of a comedy than it was. A lot of people I know thought the trailers were cringe/stupid looking.

That too, marketing was really not at their best.

 

I feel of a trailer is misleading, a movie mostly gets a bit of a ~ bad WoM too, like 'I was a bit disappointed, I wanted to see.... and got...' might not be said in a pushing for it tone / mood.

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

17 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Foster family aspect does not balance out that in the end there is a lead character who is an adult looking guy 'running around' that behaves questionable. The jokes,... wont click with all also.

But if the advertising.... release date.... I am pretty sure too, it would have made some % more at least still.

 Eh, Big made 252 mil DOM adjusted to inflation. Also I'm pretty sure the jokes worked for American audiences. 

[marveldcfox]

I think the other John Wick director has had a more successful progression that David Leitch. Deadpool 2 would have been just as big of a hit with any decent director.

[Firepower]

17 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

I think the other John Wick director has had a more successful progression that David Leitch. Deadpool 2 would have been just as big of a hit with any decent director.

Yeah, Stahelski is more talanted than Leitch, and Leitch didn't get credit for JW1, maybe he didn't do much there.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

I don't think anyone in the general audience even knows what this is.

This. People overestimate what GA knows about fandom wars, behind the scenes problems on the sets, etc. from my anecdotal experience, Shazam was sold as lighthearted kiddie movie but turned out to have scenes that children found too scary. That may not be general reaction, but family people I spoke with complained about it so we didn't take my youngest sister to see it. 

[meriodejaneiro]

2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Strictly from a commercial perspective, beyond Mulan and Little Mermaid, I think Tarzan and Snow White are viable options for Disney. Pinocchio and Bambi sound like risks, but I could see them working too. Pixar and WDAS remakes are just sad options but they will be inevitable billion dollar hits too, especially Frozen, Incredibles and Toy Story.

What about Zootopia live-action? Or would we face same emotinoless-facial-expression issue TLK is having by critics?

[meriodejaneiro]

Spoiler

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

After the 2nd weekend, BaTB, TDKR, and JWFK were looking like decent TLK comps to me. (Incidentally all 3 of those had identical multipliers off their first Mon-Sun week — Spooky).    

 

Drop from 1st Mon-Sun to 2nd Mon-Sun:  

BATB  144.3-> 74.3, -48.5%

TDKR  126.2-> 66.8, -47.1%

JWFK  117.7-> 66.7, -43.3% (July 4 boosted. Rough way of taking that into account gives more like a 48% drop)   

 

Giving TLK a 36.2M weekend it’s looking at:  

160.1->77, -51.9%   

 

Multis from this week are:  

TDKR 3.01x

BATB 2.49x  

JWFK ~2.4 adjusting for July 4th    

 

Barren August but medium reception, this TLK will do closer to BATB/JWFK’s multis there for 535-550ish. 

 

 

TLK has a lead of 45M over BATB (with worst weekend performance, but better weekdays due to summer, that compensates for the weekend). So some 40 millions dom over BATB would put TLK on the verge of the 550M. I'd say 550 is a sure target for TLK, but not much further than that.

 

Sadly the 600M seems a way too long shot, unless it stats developing very good late legs ala Aladdin or TS4, and being the Labour Day re-expansion chosen by Disney (which I think they will, cause Aladdin or TS wouldn't have any significant milestone to reach by september, and some 10M dom extra for TLK can put it closer to 600 than to 550, which psychologically could mean a victory). I don't mind fudging, I just want TLK over 600.01M dom. 

[YM!]

59 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

What about Zootopia live-action? Or would we face same emotinoless-facial-expression issue TLK is having by critics?

A live action Zootopia would be an ungodly abomination. Besides the whole point of Zootopia can’t be done in photorealism which I think God for, unless they want to do a Cats route.

[cdsacken]

4 hours ago, Jonan23 said:

After reading all the bad signs in the tracking thread for a week. I think a 60 million opening is really great for Hobbs and Shaw.

Biggest issue is cost. 200m production budget. Like Pikachu cost was way too high

[Krissykins]

20 years ago (!) this weekend, The Sixth Sense opened at #1 with an adjusted $47.3m.

 

The very same weekend, The Blair Witch Project expanded at #2 and grossed an adjusted $43.2m in its 4th weekend. 

 

Both PTA’s adjust to over $20k.

 

How incredible. Those 2 films have some of the best box office stories/runs of all time. 

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Biggest issue is cost. 200m production budget. Like Pikachu cost was way too high

You can’t really believe Universal expected the spin off to gross more than the actual franchise? 

 

That budget was clearly greenlit with international numbers in mind. 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

20 years ago (!) this weekend, The Sixth Sense opened at #1 with an adjusted $47.3m.

 

The very same weekend, The Blair Witch Project expanded at #2 and grossed an adjusted $43.2m in its 4th weekend. 

 

Both PTA’s adjust to over $20k.

 

How incredible. Those 2 films have some of the best box office stories/runs of all time. 

 

I remember that summer really well.  First of all, it was last time me and my mother saw a movie at the theatre before I moved to Toronto and before she passed away 7 years later.  We saw American Beauty and we both loved it.  As for Blair and Sixth, they were two of the biggest surprises to come out that summer and the awesome thing about Blair Witch was the marketing campaign.  People, including myself, thought the whole thing was real.  It ended up seeing BW 5 times in the theatre, it was one of my favourite movie going experiences ever.  

[cdsacken]

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

You can’t really believe Universal expected the spin off to gross more than the actual franchise? 

 

That budget was clearly greenlit with international numbers in mind. 

Even then it has a  massive break even and appears to be on its way to a loss. Maybe barely break even with video?

Edited August 3, 2019 by cdsacken

[MrPink]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Even then it has a  massive break even and appears to be on its way to a loss. Maybe barely break even with video?

 

Idk, isn't this movie still on target for something like 700m WW+? Don't think it's in a ton of danger of being hit with a loss. Just might not be as big as they want.

Edited August 3, 2019 by MrPink

[cdsacken]

Hope so. I'd be shocked above 650 and not surprised about sub 600

[oMeriMombatti]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Idk, is this movie still on target for something like 700m WW+? Don't think it's in a ton of danger of being hit with a loss. Just might not be as big as they want.

From what I have seen of the OS performance, 600M looks good. On the DOM front, if it opens to 60M, I think it'll leg it's way to 170M but let's be conservative and say 150M. That's 750M on 200M budget, a CLEAN HIT.

[Avatree]

I agree with posters that the real heart of the film was obscured from advertising. The whole third act is not in adverts/trailers. (Actually I've seen ads since then that include it - but I had seen lots of advertising prior to, and didn't know anything in third act. In fact when the middle section finished, I thought that was the end of the film. 

The third act is a real delight and has so much love and heart in it. It was a nice surprise having not been aware from trailers. But yes I can see that obfuscating it from trailers may have not helped. I liked it being sold as action comedy but maybe better to sell it as a standard F&F film.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Eh I think it's simply that DC doesn't have the brand loyalty from the GA that the MCU does. Shazam is a decent hit and has room to grow for the sequel. 

[vafrow]

35 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I remember that summer really well.  First of all, it was last time me and my mother saw a movie at the theatre before I moved to Toronto and before she passed away 7 years later.  We saw American Beauty and we both loved it.  As for Blair and Sixth, they were two of the biggest surprises to come out that summer and the awesome thing about Blair Witch was the marketing campaign.  People, including myself, thought the whole thing was real.  It ended up seeing BW 5 times in the theatre, it was one of my favourite movie going experiences ever.  

That was the summer I had just graduated university and was working full time. Having a regular schedule and money in my pocket made it easy to be at theatres every week. Plus, a the end of the summer, a new 24 screen AMC theatre opened near me, and they had a day of unlimited movies, which let me catch up on a few I had missed.

 

While there were a ton of great movies that year, there were also a number of bland/poor blockbusters, so if you weren't at the theatre frequently, and stuck to the flashiest releases with their biggest names at the time, your summer could easily consist of Phantom Menace, Wild Wild West and Big Daddy.