Weekend Thread - Actuals: H&S 25.3, Scary Stories 20.9, TLK 20.2, Dora 17.4, OUATIH 11.6, Racing in Rain 8.1, Kitchen 5.5

[lorddemaxus]

22 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

I don't need to remind you about the deadline track-record. Everybody and their dog knows this by now and it is what it is hardly a secret. I rest my case here

 

Sure, when it comes to their early morning numbers or previews but their latter updates are way more accurate. It's no different to Charlie who's early numbers aren't so accurate either (he's really only accurate towards the end of the day) and it makes sense. It's hard to make accurate predictions when the day has just started.

Edited August 10, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Ryan Reynolds]

If DL is correct that is a decent drop drop for Once 

[a2k]

[cookie]

Did TLK lose a lot of screens? Its Friday bumps in previous weeks have been closer to 50%, not 30.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, cookie said:

Did TLK lose a lot of screens? Its Friday bumps in previous weeks have been closer to 50%, not 30.

wonder if it lost some premium screens to HS

[Claudio]

1 hour ago, Geo1500 said:

I don't need to remind you about the deadline track-record. Everybody and their dog knows this by now and it is what it is hardly a secret. I rest my case here

 

At least , Deadline Friday estimates are closer and more accurate than yours

[Hades]

2 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

This is Sony so they'll do it cause fudging and making ugly posters is their brand. 

Disney are the modern day masters of fudging BO numbers....Sony should learn from the masters

[Justin4125]

48 minutes ago, Hades said:

Disney are the modern day masters of fudging BO numbers....Sony should learn from the masters

When it comes to reporting international BO, especially in Asian countries, Disney (along with WB) might be the least guilty of all the studios when it comes to real BO fudging (as in lying about numbers, not things like double features or expansions). In general Disney seems to underreport more often than they overreport.

 

When it comes to domestic BO, there arent many ways to truly lie about numbers since there are so many third party sources that can verify or challenge your numbers. In some cases studios report numbers that the industry challenges, but I havent heard of this happening with Disney like I have with studios like Paramount. 

 

I think Ive seen you make the same post a couple times. Disney has plenty of faults just attack something else. 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2019 by Justin4125

[UserHN]

22 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

When it comes to reporting international BO, especially in Asian countries, Disney (along with WB) might be the least guilty of all the studios when it comes to real BO fudging (as in lying about numbers, not things like double features or expansions). In general Disney seems to underreport more often than they overreport.

 

When it comes to domestic BO, there arent many ways to truly lie about numbers since there are so many third party sources that can verify or challenge your numbers. In some cases studios report numbers that the industry challenges, but I havent heard of this happening with Disney like I have with studios like Paramount. 

 

I think Ive seen you make the same post a couple times. Disney has plenty of faults just attack something else. 

 

 

Ignore him. He's a known Disney hater here.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

LMFAO, I knew it would happen, both movies struggling to reach $20m despite good reviews. Sub $20m is the new trend for small movies these days, this is becoming beyond pathetic.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Ignore him. He's a known Disney hater here.

An absolutely annoying hater as a fact, despite the username.

[Bagatelle31]

3 hours ago, Geo1500 said:

I don't need to remind you about the deadline track-record. Everybody and their dog knows this by now and it is what it is hardly a secret. I rest my case here

 

They've been pretty accurate for the past few months though, in terms of estimates not projections of course.

Edited August 10, 2019 by Bagatelle31

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, cookie said:

Did TLK lose a lot of screens? Its Friday bumps in previous weeks have been closer to 50%, not 30.

1st weekend in its run that it had a family movie open...it should probably see another harsh drop next weekend with another family movie opening so close...

 

But, it's also been rapidly losing showings since its open...remember, a lot of theaters set it at Endgame levels...and leveled it off much more rapidly...

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

BOX OFFICE FOR AUG. 9-11

THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRIDAY(VS. PREV FRI) 3-DAY TOTAL WK 1 Hobbs & Shaw Uni 4,344 (+91) $7.1M (-70%) $24.7M (-59%) $107.8M 2 2 Scary Stories… CBS 3,135 $8.5M $20.4M $20.4M 1 3 Lion King Dis 4,220 (-582) $5.5M (-51%) $19.3M (-50%) $472.4M 4 4 Dora… Par 3,735 $6.2M $16.8M $16.8M 1 5 Once..H’Wood Sony 3,507 (-152) $3.2M (-44%) $11.3M (-44%) $100M 3 6 Art…Rain Dis/Fox 2,765 $3M $8.4M $8.4M 1 7 The Kitchen NL/WB 2,745 $1.7M $5.3M $5.3M 1 8 Spidey…Home Sony 2,678 (-768) $1.5M (-33%) $5.2M (-34%) $370.9M 6 9 Toy Story 4 Dis 2,295 (-930) $1.4M (-33%) $4.7M (-36%) $419.9M 8 10 The Farewell A24 704 (+295) $610K (-15%) $2M (-15%) $10.1M 5

 

Well that pasted a bit oddly, but I guess you can see the important bits. For 11th and 12th: 

 

 

If not protected, the Kitchen will be flat dropped at most small-to-midsize theaters next week with all the openers coming.  Art of Racing in the Rain will be split or dropped as well.  Brian Banks obviously would also go, but I don't think it made it into many small-to-midsize theaters at its screen count.  But, Dora and Scary Stories should at least get the 2 week runs...and with the rest of August much slower in releases after Aug 16, they should hang around for a little while (maybe one of them even makes to It 2)...

Edited August 10, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Avatree]

5 hours ago, Geo1500 said:

I don't need to remind you about the deadline track-record. Everybody and their dog knows this by now and it is what it is hardly a secret. I rest my case here

 

 

Case dismissed.

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

If not protected, the Kitchen will be flat dropped at most small-to-midsize theaters next week with all the openers coming.  Art of Racing in the Rain will be split or dropped as well.  Brian Banks obviously would also go, but I don't think it made it into many small-to-midsize theaters at its screen count.  But, Dora and Scary Stories should at least get the 2 week runs...and with the rest of August much slower in releases after Aug 16, they should hang around for a little while (maybe one of them even makes to It 2)...

Doubtful since the 2 week run is standard. Maybe less showings yes, but dropping it - not gonna happen at most places. Brian Banks maybe due to the studio being less aggressive. Lion king is going to lose a bunch next week also, still cant believe its over 4k. 

[filmlover]

Great start for Scary Stories and good for Dora but Racing in the Rain is yet another Fox nonstarter, The Kitchen is obviously DOA, and Brian Banks made little as expected. 

 

Hobbs & Shaw's drop is more or less what I expected and The Lion King is continuing to fade slightly faster than anticipated (but is still making oodles of money), but that's a solid drop for Hollywood if it holds up. Think $130M+ total is happening at least.

 

The Farewell appears to have peaked in terms of expansion but will leave with a $15M or so total, which is pretty good for a movie that's mostly in Mandarin and still the biggest success story for an indie movie so far this year.

[narniadis]

Between showtime losses, theater drops and a new set of family films - you can see the damage in the Friday %s, particularly with Lion and Toy Story. 

Hopefully Saturday is better to them overall. 

[narniadis]

Just now, filmlover said:

Great start for Scary Stories and good for Dora but Racing in the Rain is yet another Fox nonstarter, The Kitchen is obviously DOA, and Brian Banks made little as expected. 

 

Hobbs & Shaw's drop is more or less what I expected and The Lion King is continuing to fade slightly faster than anticipated (but is still making oodles of money), but that's a solid drop for Hollywood if it holds up. Think $130M+ total is happening at least.

 

The Farewell appears to have peaked in terms of expansion but will leave with a $15M or so total, which is pretty good for a movie that's mostly in Mandarin and still the biggest success story for an indie movie so far this year.

Crazy to think it's the only non 1k theater film this year to top 10m..... indies have just not hit it this year (along with the rest of non disney fare). 

[sfran43]