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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 558m OS 1.073B WW

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6 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I think people are banking on the traditional markets having big increases while thinking there's not much room for the franchise to go downwards in Asia and Latin America. I don't necessarily agree but I understand the rationale. 

Pretty much this. That's my rationale for it dropping a bit from TLJ, but not massively, like some are expecting - mostly stable numbers and some slight increases in European markets, continued downward trend in Asia and Latin America.

For it to actually increase form TLJ is a tall order, even with the finale factor going for it in traditional markets.

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Territories

ep7

ep8

ro

solo

DOM

$936.7 

$620.2 

$532.2 

$213.8 

CHN

$124.2 

$42.6 

$69.5 

$16.5 

ASIA

$281.0 

$177.1 

$124.4 

$50.7 

EUR

$613.3 

$427.9 

$274.5 

$94.8 

Latin

$108.4 

$48.8 

$40.4 

$11.8 

 

EP9

DOM - $550-650M

CHN - $10-20M

ASIA - $90-125M

EUR - $300-365M

Latin - $24-36M

 

WW - $974-1196M

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Albany Event Cinemas - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)first week of sale vs 3 days/12 hours to release of other films

 

0:01am  96/216

0:01am 98/216

0:01am GC 32/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 10/216

10:20am 9/216

10:30am GC 7/30 

11:00am 10/216

11:20am GC 9/40 

12:20pm 11/216

1:40pm 10/216

1:50pm GC 2/30

2:20pm 3D 9/216

2:40pm GC 3D 8/40 

3:40pm 12/216

5:00pm 15/216

5:10pm GC 24/30

7:00pm 64/216

8:20pm 14/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9.20pm 9/216

9.20pm GC 3/40 

10.20pm 9/216

 

Total  520/3334 (15.60%) 

 

Solid numbers for the first week, although I suspect it will slow do until a week or two before unless a bunch of new showings arrive before then. I probably won’t give another update until December but I’ll keep an eye on it and if it sells a bunch will give an update. The Hobbs and Shaw and Joker comps are already getting out of hand but should have Frozen II as a comp in December so that should be better to go along with TLK as big films. 

 

Judging from the comps at the moment I would say we will be looking at around a $4m opening weekend which is right around what TLJ opened with a couple of years ago although obviously it could trend up or down from here. On the low end if you think word of mouth is gonna to be horrible and whatnot I still think it’s safe to assume that it will open to at least $2m quite comfortably unless something truely disastrous happens from here. 

 

Comps 

 

TLK 

 

Compared 3 days before 926/5338 (17.34%) = $2.87m

Compared 12 hours before 1831/5554(32.96%) = $1.45m

 

Hobbs and Shaw

 

Compared 3 Days Before 139/1456 (9.54%) = $5.99m

Compared 12 Hours Before 361/3560 (10.14%) = $2.30m

 

Joker

 

3 Days Before 160/1536 (10.41%) = $4.13m

12 Hours Before 446/2756 (16.18%) = $1.48m

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On 10/25/2019 at 5:00 AM, salvador-232 said:

That's why Showman wasn't a thing outside the Anglo world and Japan

Excuse me. The Greatest Showman had one of the leggiest runs ever in Indonesia. And the songs were big hits. It's definitely "a thing".

 

That being said, nobody cares about Cats here. And people will see it as "too weird".

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17 hours ago, John Marston said:

One thing is for sure, this will make less than Joker overseas 

My first instinct was like "eh really" but damn totally forgot Joker is going to be $700M+ OS so yeah i'd say yeah won't be a huge shock. Same with going under FFH and Captain Marvel's OS totals.

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The Rise of Skywalker might be in serious trouble ... Jumanji and possibly dark-horse Cats, as well as some others ~

 

The various leaks, the box-office-bombing by Solo, the comments from Lucasfilm about required reading from canon-books before entering The Rise of Skywalker ...

All of what coupled with very mixed audience scores and the presence of Jumanji, The Last Jedi took a rather massive dip in attendance compared to its predecessor, and when one thinks of it: this December has somewhat mirroring circumstances, doesn't it? Instead of a 11-day gap - like originally -, Jumanji and Star Wars have a 7-day gap, but could could argue it's filled with a lot more competition. Forbes even stated that Cats will be the biggest film to open against a Star Wars film ~

December 2017:

The Greatest Showman (December 😎

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (December 9) made $1.3 million (almost $700 million less than The Force Awakens)

Phantom Thread (December 11) OSCAR BUZZ

The Post (December 12) OSCAR BUZZ

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (December 20)

 

December 2019:

Jumanji: The Next Level (December 13) with Dwayne Johnson

Richard Jewell (Decmeber 13) OSCAR BUZZ

Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker (December 20)

Cats (December 20) DARK-HORSE?

Uncut Gems (December 13) with Adam Sandler OSCAR BUZZ (WIDE RELEASE)

1917 (December 25)

Just Mercy (December 25) OSCAR BUZZ

Joker (awards-extension in December) - Golden Glove nominations in December, and Academy Awards nominations on January 13 = $20-30 million increase.

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1 hour ago, Bart Allen said:

 

Richard Jewell (Decmeber 13) OSCAR BUZZ

Uncut Gems (December 13) with Adam Sandler OSCAR BUZZ (WIDE RELEASE)

Just Mercy (December 25) OSCAR BUZZ

Pretty sure those will be non-factors overseas even if TROS struggles.

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16 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Pretty sure those will be non-factors overseas even if TROS struggles.

I know, but they'll take away seats in some sense and be spoken about; far more of a threat - even in the smallest sense - than anything that The Last Jedi had to contend with, and also:

  • Gravity: October 2013 to May 2014

  • The Martian: October 2015 to March 2016

  • A Star Is Born: October 2018 to April 2019

  • Joker: October 2019 to (TBA in 2020)

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20 hours ago, John Marston said:

One thing is for sure, this will make less than Joker overseas 

Yes, please! I really want this to happen. 

 

@MrGlass2 yep, those movies will be non-factors dom too and Oscar buzz likely won't catch on either given the competition. 

Edited by Valonqar
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15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Yes, please! I really want this to happen. 

 

@MrGlass2 yep, those movies will be non-factors dom too and Oscar buzz likely won't catch on either given the competition. 

I can’t see how it doesn’t. Joker is still making money overseas correct? It will be decently over 700m

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Albany Event Cinemas (New Zealand) -Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker  opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)10 days before release vs 3 days/12 hours to release of other films. 

 

0:01am  139/216

0:01am 137/216

0:01am 132/216

0:01am GC 40/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 19/216

10:20am 14/216

10:30am GC 23/30 

11:00am 10/216

11:20am GC 23/40 

12:20pm 11/216

1:40pm 12/216

1:50pm GC 15/30

2:20pm 3D 19/216

2:40pm GC 3D 24/40 

3:40pm 12/216

5:00pm 34/216

5:10pm GC 30/30

7:00pm 123/216

8:20pm 59/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9.20pm 16/216

9.20pm GC 37/40 

10.20pm 9/216

 

Total  997/3550 (28.08%) 

 

I think it’s safe to assume by local time midnight there will be over 100 tickets sold but I don’t want to stay up too late tonight and wait for it to tick over. 

 

I removed the Hobbs and Shaw and Joker comps as they were giving close to or over $10m opening weekends which is impossible so they have clearly become obsolete. Both TLK and Frozen II comps are very good though. This thing is selling like hot cakes and has a chance to overtake TLK in 12 hours which is very impressive although I suspect walkups not be nearly as strong. 

 

Next update I will give is 3 days before and my 12 hour report will be late as I’ll be on a flight but hopefully I’ll be able to do a 6-7 hours before and adjust down by what seems a reasonable amount. 

 

Comps

 

TLK 

 

Compared 3 days before 926/5338 (17.34%) = $5.5m

Compared 12 hours before 1831/5554(32.96%) = $2.78m

 

Frozen II

 

10 Days Before 231/2230 (10.36%) = $6.86m

3 Days Before 398/2230 (17.85%) = $3.98m

12 Hours Before 670/2572 (26.05%)  = $2.37m

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the main thing I am asking myself is how much of this movies OS gross will be from like 5 markets (UK, Germany, Japan, France and Australia). Fearing that the share could be above 60%.

(For information, the % for the other SW movies):

TFA: 48.17% ($180M, $111.4M, $97.9M, $88.5M, $67.3M = $545.1M of $1131.6M)

TLJ: 52.06% ($111.1M, $83.2M, $66.7M, $65M, $44.9M = $370.9M of $712.4M)

 

RO: 46.59% ($81.4M, $46.6M, $39.2M, $39.4M, $37.5M = $244.1M of $523.9M)

Solo: 47.94% ($25.8M, $17M, $18.9M, $11.3M, $12.9M = $85.9M of $179.2M)

 

Interestingly the the episode movies have a higher share, can't really explain that, if one adds Dom to it and compares the number to the ww gross, than it increased based on the release dates (TFA, RO, TLJ, Solo)

71.64%, 73.51%, 74.37%, 76.26%

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

 

Interestingly the the episode movies have a higher share, can't really explain that

yeah. that's sorta unbelievable, especially for Solo.

 

Well, as surprising as that may sounds, that's due to China.

Solo China was over 9.2% of overseas while TLJ was just 5.9%.

@POTUS 2020 I guess you wanna see that :hahaha:

 

Asia - China - Japan did $70mn i.e. 9.8% for TLJ while $21mn i.e. 11.8% for Solo.

 

Basically Star Wars niche is showing in smaller markets. But general audience in bigger markets is coming for only Episode films.

Edited by Jedi Jat
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3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

yeah. that's sorta unbelievable, especially for Solo.

 

Well, as surprising as that may sounds, that's due to China.

Solo China was over 9.2% of overseas while TLJ was just 5.9%.

@POTUS 2020 I guess you wanna see that :hahaha:

 

Asia - China - Japan did $70mn i.e. 9.8% for TLJ while $21mn i.e. 11.8% for Solo.

 

Basically Star Wars niche is showing in smaller markets. But general audience in bigger markets is coming for only Episode films.

I think  that RTOS might get somewhat close to TLJ in the big markets (like the 5 + scandinavia, Spain?, Italy?) and will drop a lot from TLJ everywhere else.

I fear that it might do just around Solo in China for example.

 

Anyone knows of any countries where it's possible that RTOS becomes the lowest grossing out of the 5 movies.

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