BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Only on BOT can a 70 million OW be a hit and an 80+ million OW be a flop.

Silly framing. 70M for Old would be an insane success, probably the box office success story of the year. 80M for NWH would be flopping on a once in a decade level.  
 

Context matters.   
 

 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

weekly drop aka spreading out the talk/buzz of show is ofc a better thing for show.

 

Just that you can't do that for movies.

I was piggybacking on this:

 

46 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

most discussion on movie comes from how it is received + how it spread out.

 

you were noting that theatrical releases of movies can be in conversation for weeks (how it was spread out), and I was drawing something of an analogy that even in the world of streaming this a very similar debate is being played out (convenience that binging provides versus the more medium term benefits of keeping something in conversation for weeks at a time).

 

May not be a perfect analogy, but seemed similar enough to me to bring it up as a supporting point to the one you were making.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

80 would be disappointing. I dread all the doomsday articles written by Indiewire about the death of theaters tomorrow and Monday

[Fox20]

38 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Silly framing. 70M for Old would be an insane success, probably the box office success story of the year. 80M for NWH would be flopping on a once in a decade level.  
 

Context matters.   
 

 

Yeah context matters that is why the highest OW in the pandemic + whatever money it makes on Disney+, pushed back for so long and a movie about a dead character is in no context dissapointing, people are just mad  they will never know the Disney+ numbers.

 

 

[SpiderByte]

9 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Silly framing. 70M for Old would be an insane success, probably the box office success story of the year. 80M for NWH would be flopping on a once in a decade level.  
 

Context matters.   
 

 

Damn that might been a good point if that's what had happened.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Damn that might been a good point if that's what had happened.

a·nal·o·gy

/əˈnaləjē/

noun

 

1. a comparison between two things, typically for the purpose of explanation or clarification.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

Yeah context matters that is why the highest OW in the pandemic + whatever money it makes on Disney+, pushed back for so long and a movie about a dead character is in no context dissapointing, people are just mad  they will never know the Disney+ numbers.

 

 

I dont know why the Marvel fans are reacting--it is definitely disappointing. It has nothing to do with the Disney+ numbers. A lot of trackers here have insights into ticket sales and can calculate the slow demand and pace of theaters in real time. And given pre-sales, a 80m number would indicate very frontloaded demand 

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

80 would be disappointing. I dread all the doomsday articles written by Indiewire about the death of theaters tomorrow and Monday

still on the low end of industry expectations , but unlike Marvel to not blow past expectations

[Cooper Legion]

Look, I set the bar where I set the bar, and this would be a several million dollar miss. It’s pretty far on the low end of where things could have gone.  
 

But this is also just a silly discussion to be having before somebody with a real number pops by!

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

a·nal·o·gy

/əˈnaləjē/

noun

 

1. a comparison between two things, typically for the purpose of explanation or clarification.

Saying "it would have been a big deal if it were a small indie film getting 70" isn't an analogy, it's whataboutism, because the movie that got 70 is the 9th installment, 10 counting Hobbs and Shaw, of a massive blockbuster franchise, with a budget the same as if not larger than Black Widows.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Saying "it would have been a big deal if it were a small indie film getting 70" isn't an analogy, it's whataboutism, because the movie that got 70 is the 9th installment, 10 counting Hobbs and Shaw, of a massive blockbuster franchise, with a budget the same as if not larger than Black Widows.

😷

[EmpireCity]

Not necessarily here, but it blows my mind how eager some people are to see theaters fail and be put out of business for good.  An industry that has had a deep cultural impact for 100+ years around the world and employs thousands and thousands of people and pumps billions into local economies.  

 

All so people can sit home on their couch and give their $$ directly to streaming companies that employ a fraction of the people and money goes mostly to executives and shareholders.  

 

It makes me sad for the world to see how much way too many people want Wall-E to be the model of the future.  

[EmpireCity]

I mean, why go to a concert ever again?  You can just download or stream it on your nice home sound system and home theater and make yourself something to eat and drink a 12 pack of beer for the cost of 1 beer at the concert.  

 

Why go see a play or opera when you can get The Met online and sit on your sectional and pig out.  Why go to any sports game when you can watch it on ESPN and have a courtside seat in your living room?  

 

Why fly on a plane for thousands of dollars to see the Greek or Roman ruins in person when I can watch 4k drone video on a NatGeo documentary at home? 

 

The logic is just so stupid.  

[Cap]

Okay I'm about to take off the Admin Cap Cap for a hot second, and put on the User Cap Cap:

 

 

I have said this for a year: BLACK WIDOW IS NOT AN EVENT.

 

Maybe not vocally enough cause I didn't want to come off as a troll, but Black Widow is NOT Top Priority for Fandom.  ScarJo burned A LOT of bridges with the Lady Fandom, and the whole "set after Civil War" aspect was never a HOOK.  And I know the "Deadline data" says that the audience is X amount male on opening nights, but the truth is overall audience, according to Victoria, is basically 50/50 55/45 Female.  If we don't show up, we're not going to push it over the finish line!  And We Don't Care Anymore!!  This is not 2013 where my friends and I are standing outside the SDCC "Women In Comics" Panel cornering Victoria Alonso and demanding a Black Widow movie.  We are so far removed from that timeline!!!

 

If you looked at the reactions on Twitter, Letterboxd, Tumblr, there is SO MUCH "this is fine but I would've liked it better in 2017/this is too late to matter."  Tumblr is all about gifs for Yelena.  The only reason it was trending all weekend is cause it was Promoted.  The only non promoted trends were about Yelena.  And LOKI.

 

No, seriously, Loki is FUCKING with this this.  It's distracting Fandom.  My friend and I were talking about how if this has premiered BEFORE Episode 1, or even BEFORE Episode 3, MAAAYBE.  But GIIIIIIRL.  After Episode 3.  And FIVE!!!  NO ONE HAS TIME FOR NAT.  LOKI IS [SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER] AND [SPOILERS SPOILER SPOILER].

 

Add all of this in with PANDEMIC + THEATERS STILL CLOSED = 82M for Black Widow is LEGIT good number.  It's probably what it would have done BEFORE 2020.

 

PLUS 82M is what was on Rth's comic book, so it's just meant to be.  LOLOLOL.  

 

Okay. 

 

I'm done.  

 

Back to cool and collective Admin Cap

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

I mean, why go to a concert ever again?  You can just download or stream it on your nice home sound system and home theater and make yourself something to eat and drink a 12 pack of beer for the cost of 1 beer at the concert.  

 

Why go see a play or opera when you can get The Met online and sit on your sectional and pig out.  Why go to any sports game when you can watch it on ESPN and have a courtside seat in your living room?  

 

Why fly on a plane for thousands of dollars to see the Greek or Roman ruins in person when I can watch 4k drone video on a NatGeo documentary at home? 

 

The logic is just so stupid.  

 

Cannot compare live concert or sports with movies on big screen. There is nothing "live" about it. That said I agree that nothing matches watching a movie on a big screen with lights switched off and there are no distractions(of course these days half the folks are on their phone even in the middle of a movie !!!).

 

Your other point about streaming movies not being memorable, as a format there is no reason to make 2 hour movie. You are better of making a 6 part series of 30-45m. That makes better sense for streaming platform. I recently saw Russian Doll and that was great. 30 minutes and just 6 episodes. So in the future for movies that go streaming may be convert it into a series of shorter episodes. 

[keysersoze123]

Black widow's OW is fantastic for a hybrid release. It would have comfortably opened > 100m in pre-COVID world. But the BW origin movie should have come out 8-10 years ago considering we saw the character in 2010. It may not have opened that big but character arc could have been fleshed out better in a trilogy. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

BW was not an 82 million opener pre pandemic, lol. Trailer metrics were very strong and the character is quite popular with the overall fandom regardless of ScarJo controversy (which general audiences don't know/care about). That said both yesterday and today it collapsed in evening walk-ups after looking good earlier on. My suspicion is that PA is affecting that pattern.

[TigerPaw]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

BW was not an 82 million opener pre pandemic, lol. Trailer metrics were very strong and the character is quite popular with the overall fandom regardless of ScarJo controversy (which general audiences don't know/care about). That said both yesterday and today it collapsed in evening walk-ups after looking good earlier on. My suspicion is that PA is affecting that pattern.

Not sure whether word of mouth also has some (limited) form of impact. Other than fans; people in general feels like it was pretty mixed and one of the not-so-good MCU films.

 

Cinemascore A- for a MCU film is a little bit of a disappointment actually. IMDB score is barely above 7 now... Douban score (which I feel is pretty good gauge) is at 6.7.

The RT certified user score is the only one doing very well - but I am not sure how fan-driven that is?

 

Again I am not saying it is bad, Marvel fans please don't get worked up and defend it.. I am just saying there are people whom genuinely was disappointed by it.

 

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Cap said:

And LOKI.

 

No, seriously, Loki is FUCKING with this this.  It's distracting Fandom.  My friend and I were talking about how if this has premiered BEFORE Episode 1, or even BEFORE Episode 3, MAAAYBE.  But GIIIIIIRL.  After Episode 3.  And FIVE!!!  NO ONE HAS TIME FOR NAT.  LOKI IS [SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER] AND [SPOILERS SPOILER SPOILER].

 

Not being plugged into Marvel Fandom, I can't really speak about the specifics of this, but as a General TV Trends Watcher, I will find it exceedingly ironic if this is indeed partially the case.  I say that because as I understand it one of the reasons Loki moved to Wednesdays in the first place was so it and Black Widow wouldn't step on each other when it came to BW's OW and Loki's final episodes of its first season.

 

And yet, here we are.  

 

Maybe it would have been better for all concerned if Loki had been released three weeks earlier OR three weeks later. If later, that would have given it sufficient space not to step on BW in the first place. If earlier, then perhaps there would have been enough time for Marvel Fans to cool down talking about [SPOILERS] [SPOILERS} and [SPOILERS]. 

 

Now, maybe Loki wasn't ready three weeks earlier.  Maybe Disney wanted to give The Bad Batch a tiny amount of breathing room before launching Loki (though, honestly, I really doubt it, even as a massive SW shill).   And maybe they didn't want to wait too long until putting Loki into the wild.

 

But if one of the reasons for a Wed. release schedule was so Loki and BW could co-exist in the mindshare of the typical Marvel fan? Well, I have no idea if they really succeeded or not, given that whole "not plugged into Marvel Fandom" thing.  But it would appear that you tend to doubt they succeeded if that was indeed one of the goals. 

 

[Cooper Legion]

I really doubt Loki had any appreciable affect in BW’s opening weekend one way or another.