BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

79-80 mil would be my guess with 23.15 Saturday

that's the reason for the F word? Never change BOT never change. 

 

It'll probably go up to 81M with actuals but it's a strong opening anyway you slice it. 

[Krissykins]

17 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

79-80 mil would be my guess with 23.15 Saturday

I think it’s a square 23m. 
 

I googled Black Widow comic 23 and that’s the cover that comes up. 

[lorddemaxus]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

that's the reason for the F word? Never change BOT never change. 

 

It'll probably go up to 81M with actuals but it's a strong opening anyway you slice it. 

Only @Lokis Legion said that and he was clearly joking. Of course most people here still find it dissapointing since we were expecting it to do $10 mil over what it's looking at right now. 

[wildphantom]

$23 million Saturday?

jeez, it’s almost like people had something to watch at home instead. Like, Black Widow. 

[john2000]

37 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Only @Lokis Legion said that and he was clearly joking. Of course most people here still find it dissapointing since we were expecting it to do $10 mil over what it's looking at right now. 

indeed and dare i say that it could have hit 90+ without pa

[fabiopazzo2]

guys, next year we will have many blockbuster like Batman, JW Dominion, Thor, Strange, BP. All this movies should Pass 100M 

[Movie nerd]

80 mln? By MCU movie? Only 10 mln $ more than heavily declining in US Fast franchise movie? With much stronger presales? 

I know "post pandemia industry", "premium access" etc, but not gonna lie, rather suprised and dissappointed by this opening, thought 90 mln$ was the floor. 

If film lead by established MCU character, Avengers founding memeber doing this kind of numbers I wonder how low film like Shang Chi can go. 

Pandemia blurred everything and delayed this question, making it that harder to answer, but the question of MCU state after Endgame, level of general public intrest and  it's drawing power without some of the most popular characters and hook of wanting to follow and see the end of Infinity Saga remains valid. 

Ofc MCU still is insanely popular and in demand, the question is how much compared to pre-Endgame MCU. 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Movie nerd

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Not necessarily here, but it blows my mind how eager some people are to see theaters fail and be put out of business for good.  An industry that has had a deep cultural impact for 100+ years around the world and employs thousands and thousands of people and pumps billions into local economies.  

 

All so people can sit home on their couch and give their $$ directly to streaming companies that employ a fraction of the people and money goes mostly to executives and shareholders.  

 

It makes me sad for the world to see how much way too many people want Wall-E to be the model of the future.  

 

I used to give Wall-E an A+ for the beginning and a C+ for the end for a total B+...but the fact that the 2nd half has become literally the future, I feel like I have to raise my grade and put this movie in the A- range (and elevate the 2nd half to B+/B status)...

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

23.15 , yeah it's over. 

Ant Man and the Wasp flashback.

Not crossing 80m also.

OMG, if that's the number, I called it yesterday as the worst case on the thread...damn, this PA release is gonna be fan-centric and then peter out much faster than typical MCU.

 

I wonder what the theater contracts say with so many releases the next 2 weeks...

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Don’t engage.

 

It’s certainly setting a new bar, a pandemic record, for the rest of the films to beat. 
 

Just hope the estimate is above $80m, but I’d guess that’s in danger. 

 

I predicted yesterday if worst case happened, they'd say $80M no matter what b/c it would be close enough...but actuals would be lower...

[titanic2187]

If we stripped out preview, BW would only outgross F9 by 4m true FSS

[Sandro Mazzola]

Should pass $80m even with a $23.15m Saturday, I'd put it at $82m. A weak Saturday should see a soft Sunday drop.

[CJohn]

Disastrous Saturday for BW, truly showing there is a ceiling of people willing to go to theaters right now.

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Disastrous Saturday for BW, truly showing there is a ceiling of people willing to go to theaters right now.

do you think that’s true? 
I’m sure there would have been many willing customers, who instead were given different choices on how to watch it. 
 

I’m sure there will be plenty of meltdowns later on when the estimates come out. 
 

I just hope perspective prevails. 
 

It will be futile to compare it to other MCU openings when it’s the only one you could watch at home in 2160p HDR for $30, or ‘free’. 
 

$80 million is nothing to be embarrassed about considering how Disney have distributed the movie.  They’re basically getting the result that they set up for themselves. No more, no less. 

[TwoMisfits]

Perspective on this release...

 

Is this the MCU's Solo?  Make a solo movie AFTER you kill off the main PC.  Make the movie good, but not great.  Have issues with the release of the movie.  Have good OW presales, but then only the huge uber-fan base shows up.  Have a disappointing OW and terrible summer legs.

 

EDIT TO ADD: And is this why Cap isn't dead at the end of Endgame, but about 427, so any prequels with him won't fall into this trap...

  

Edited July 11, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[titanic2187]

This low Saturday means total box office from all movies in this weekend would be at 115-120m. Suddenly all the sense of normalcy gone just like that. 

[Nerfy]

14 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Offering more options isn't anti-consumer, lmao. If PA cost literally $50, or $100, or $500, or $500,000 none of those would be "anti-consumer." They'd just be bad business, because people would decide not to make that transaction.

 

If anything is anti-consumer it is having an arbitrary "exclusive window" where in order to see your product, customers have to get into an indoor space with a hundred strangers during a pandemic, and pay 1000% mark-ups on food and drinks.

[TigerPaw]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Perspective on this release...

 

Is this the MCU's Solo?  Make a solo movie AFTER you kill off the main PC.  Make the movie good, but not great.  Have issues with the release of the movie.  Have good OW presales, but then only the huge uber-fan base shows up.  Have a disappointing OW and terrible summer legs.

  

 

Yeah; there are a lot of reasons for the disappointing figures - it is disappointing no doubt about that; you laid some of reasons out nicely.

 

People can't just blame PA alone; i mean imagine if the movie was 93% RT critics score, A or A+ cinemascore  - i would argue that it might have been a >90 - 100m even with the PA.

 

I mean there was so many people IN the club for >100m just a few days ago; and PA was announced 3 months ago. Now it will barely hit/miss 80m, and everyone is blaming PA. Not saying PA is not the main reason, There are many other reasons at play.

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, Nerfy said:

 

If anything is anti-consumer it is having an arbitrary "exclusive window" where in order to see your product, customers have to get into an indoor space with a hundred strangers during a pandemic, and pay 1000% mark-ups on food and drinks.

It is anti-consumer when I realised i would never be able revisit Endgame in cinema. And small screen at the home in the only choice FOREVER.

 

Don't you forget streaming have forever exclusive window but cinema only have 45-60 days  

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is anti-consumer when I realised i would never be able revisit Endgame in cinema. And small screen at the home in the only choice FOREVER.

 

Don't you forget streaming have forever exclusive window but cinema only have 45-60 days  

Wtf does Endgame have to do with Premiere Access???