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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

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23 minutes ago, dudalb said:

The COvid news in the US is not going to get better anytime soon. Biden statment on Firday that  restrictions are coming back shows that. The Delta Resurgence will dominated the news for the few weeks,and I can't  help but think that will hurt bos office badly.

And you are already seeing some releases pushed back. "Clifford"is being pushed back,others will follow. The Autumn scheduled is definently at risk.

Goid, I hate the Antivaxxers and the politicans who are catering to them.Throw the Anti Maskers in with that group also.'

Or delta was a good excuse for Paramount so it doesn’t look bad for them. 

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30 minutes ago, DAJK said:

As someone who’s worked at movie theaters since he was 15, this is 100% correct about counterprogramming. Theaters NEED that stuff to pull decent numbers too


If only studios still bothered to make more than a couple of would-be Oscar contenders of those. 

Edited by Plain Old Tele
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Delta variant certainly could scare things out of theaters but Gopher is right on the money in so many ways. The fact is, the last year of delays occurred with an end goal in mind - buy us time until the vaccine is widely available throughout the country. But we don't have another end goal. The vaccine is available and it works about as well as a vaccine could realistically work. People are either going to take it or not, but there's really no other solution left except for everyone to either get vaccinated or get sick. The next set of delays and restrictions (both film and otherwise) would come without an end goal and essentially condemn us to a permanent cycle of delays and closures in our society for years to come. Vaccine mandates are the only way out of this for theaters and for society at-large. If not, we are going to be dealing with COVID for the rest of the 2020s, like we did the Black Plague and shit.

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I think numbers are likely to get worse from here on out for multiple reasons.

First, we are still in a pandemic that is now in a worsening phase in the US and is getting alot of media attention that it is getting worse. The CDC recommendation that everyone regardless of vaccination status should wear a mask indoors in areas of 'high' or 'substantial' spread is just going to start depressing turnout more.

 

Schools are starting back up. All the big systems here in metro Atlanta start school next week. Most schools in the South start in the next week or two. So you will see natural reduction in revenue.

 

Finally, I think most overestimate how many people want to go to the movies. I think it is still mostly the more hard core movie fans. I believe a good portion of the GA is still staying away and may be unlikely to return until 2022 sometime. I think that is part of the reason we keep seeing 65%+ drops in week 2. The people that really want to see a movie in a theater see it opening weekend and then there simply is little demand after that point. Others will pay or wait to see for free on streaming. 

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19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Delta variant certainly could scare things out of theaters but Gopher is right on the money in so many ways. The fact is, the last year of delays occurred with an end goal in mind - buy us time until the vaccine is widely available throughout the country. But we don't have another end goal. The vaccine is available and it works about as well as a vaccine could realistically work. People are either going to take it or not, but there's really no other solution left except for everyone to either get vaccinated or get sick. The next set of delays and restrictions (both film and otherwise) would come without an end goal and essentially condemn us to a permanent cycle of delays and closures in our society for years to come. Vaccine mandates are the only way out of this for theaters and for society at-large. If not, we are going to be dealing with COVID for the rest of the 2020s, like we did the Black Plague and shit.

 

Great post.  What is the next that these studios and producers are waiting for?  Right now the theatrical industry is doing beyond the best case scenario on Jan 1, 2021.  On that date we were looking at sluggish vaccine rollout that had supply chain issues.  We had a pre-Meme AMC that was heading to a secondary to determine if its files or not.  Yet here we are AMC cashed in on its meme. Vaccine administration rolled out great and at this point its been a couple of months where anyone that wants one can easily get one.  CDC and local officials have been much faster opening up everything that I think most reasonable people would have predicted and the theaters themselves opened up capacity a lot faster than I think you could have reasonably predicted.

 

What is the end game of pushing a release?  I think there is a good case to be made that the 4 big movies so far have opened about 20-30% lower than their likely precovid of course there are a billion * that we can argue to blue in the face about why each of the movies opened lower.  The point being if Paramount believes this and pushed Clifford for this reason when do they think this return to theaters is going to occur?  What is the end game? How long can they carry these films without income and cashflow?

 

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Delta variant certainly could scare things out of theaters but Gopher is right on the money in so many ways. The fact is, the last year of delays occurred with an end goal in mind - buy us time until the vaccine is widely available throughout the country. But we don't have another end goal. The vaccine is available and it works about as well as a vaccine could realistically work. People are either going to take it or not, but there's really no other solution left except for everyone to either get vaccinated or get sick. The next set of delays and restrictions (both film and otherwise) would come without an end goal and essentially condemn us to a permanent cycle of delays and closures in our society for years to come. Vaccine mandates are the only way out of this for theaters and for society at-large. If not, we are going to be dealing with COVID for the rest of the 2020s, like we did the Black Plague and shit.

This man is wise. After vaccination is nearly complete, if we still see a big number of cases, then we are completely screwed and will be in and out of lockdowns every few months. We are gonna be dealing with this for all of the 2020s. Theaters closing down, which they certainly will, will be the least of our issues.

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2021 is the year that recovery has started people should temper their expectations , it still too early while the vaccines are still not enough in many countries that will continue to change as the time goes buy , 2022 will be the year where we will know for sure how much impact vaccines  will have bc by then vaccinations all around the world will have rump up maybe not enought for herd imunnity (which imo is unrealistic) but good enough so we wont need to worry every time there is an increase in cases also people should pay more attention to the deaths and hospitalizations  these metrics are those that matter and both of these metrics are saying that yes there is an increase but still nowhere near where it was some months ago , this doesnt mean that goverments shouldnt take action but imo in countries that have vaccinated a big/great % of their population like western europe/canada and us lockdowns at least nationwide lockdowns should be the last thing that goverments should do imo .Yes i know that 45-55% fully vaccinated is not enough for herd immunity but it should still be enough to make a difference  45-55% full vacc is not a small number at all and prob by sept the countries that i mentioned above will have 60% of their population fully vacc, companies can delay only for so long and goverments all around the world cant keep going back  and forth with lockdowns, based on what i have seen in my countries the more lockdowns there are the less effective there are

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1 hour ago, Chicago said:

The Suicide Squad was a blast. It will be a shame of it opens below Black Widow 

It will, tracking thread suggests sub $30m in the US. A shame, because I agree: it’s a blast!

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lockdowns are not a sustainable solution, each time they are reinforced they are less effective, economies cant continue like  that its not realistic at all 

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The vaccines are great. Even a miracle in terms of how effective they are.  Unfortunately every day that goes by with a lot of unvaccinated people wandering around increases the odds of a new variant developing, one that the vaccines may be more ineffective against. 

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5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It will, tracking thread suggests sub $30m in the US. A shame, because I agree: it’s a blast!

30m seems ridiculous. Just 8m more than Mortal Kombat? I would have thought the strong reviews would have helped turn the tracking around

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12 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

The vaccines are great. Even a miracle in terms of how effective they are.  Unfortunately every day that goes by with a lot of unvaccinated people wandering around increases the odds of a new variant developing, one that the vaccines may be more ineffective against. 

It is beyond a miracle. It is the most effective vaccine ever (significantly more effective than yearly flu, polio, or chickenpox) and it was developed in the shortest time period ever. People undersell this - it is one of the greatest scientific achievements in American history. We could have easily had no vaccine until 2025, and a shitty J&J type one when it happened.

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Vaccine rate has picked up a lot this week. 70% of adults now have at least one shot. We aren't that far away. Delta is spooking the hold out into action. We'll probably top 1 million doses again some day next week.

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24 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This man is wise. After vaccination is nearly complete, if we still see a big number of cases, then we are completely screwed and will be in and out of lockdowns every few months. We are gonna be dealing with this for all of the 2020s. Theaters closing down, which they certainly will, will be the least of our issues.

But it is innevitable to see a big number of cases so why would we be screwed? If the vaccination programme ends successfully then we would expect cases to rise as normal life begins to return. There would only be an issue if there were a high number of deaths along with the cases. Fortunately the early figures in some countries are suggesting this hasn't been the case, though it is still early days.

 

I think in time the cases will zigzag but deaths won't reach anywhere near the heights of previous waves. There will be less and less news coverage as the years go by and eventually will begin to fade away from everyone minds. 

 

We've done alot in 18 months, I think with booster shots and more time for research, we will see a much brighter picture a further 18 months from now

 

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17 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

The vaccines are great. Even a miracle in terms of how effective they are.  Unfortunately every day that goes by with a lot of unvaccinated people wandering around increases the odds of a new variant developing, one that the vaccines may be more ineffective against. 

That's the great danger. Covid will continue to mutate.That is what viruses do.

You are up against ignorance and stupidity....two things very hard to fight whne it comes to the Antivaxxers.

And to make matters worse, teh GOP is splitting on the issue with the Trump wing going full scale Antivax  and anti mask. I give you the moron governor of Florida as an example.

And people don't get what vaccines do. It's not like they build a magic shield around your body. What they do is buuild up you immune system so that if the COvid virus does enter, it can handle it without much difficulty.

I am disgusted beyond measure what has happened with the vaccines becoming a freaking political issue. It will be a cold day in hell before I vote for a Republcian again.

I don't like Newsom in Califorinia very much...he has made many mistakes in handling the VIrus, and the Franch Laundy incident is one of the most idiotic things I have ever seen a politician do,but between him and the drooling kook the California GOP will probably nominate in a recall?  Very easy choice.

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2 hours ago, Chicago said:

The Suicide Squad was a blast. It will be a shame of it opens below Black Widow 

It would be a shame if there was no pandemic and millions of people weren’t stubborn. 

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56 minutes ago, Chicago said:

30m seems ridiculous. Just 8m more than Mortal Kombat? I would have thought the strong reviews would have helped turn the tracking around

Ever seen a movie you didn’t like? Then a sequel comes, you’re not exactly enthusiastic about it surely? Even if people tell you “mate it’s better its awesomez!” how much of that would sway you? Something something first impressions…
 

Tracking will pick up next week as we go into the hone stretch but all things considered with the landscape plus the other baggage TSS has, I’m not that surprised.

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8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So 10.7M True Friday. @keysersoze123  @Menor I believe normal ratios are back.

 

 

Much better. I am very happy. This seems to play well almost everywhere. 

 

 

Anyway I am back after a long day and just checked. Its definitely increasing today. Since it did 10.5m friday, a 10% increase would mean 11.55m. Let us see where it ends up. 

 

MTC1 148869/820252 1837689.84 4623 shows

MTC2 - 136.5K(DBOX adjusted). 4319 shows (about 1.43m). 

Edited by keysersoze123
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2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Or delta was a good excuse for Paramount so it doesn’t look bad for them. 

My first reaction was “they’re selling this too aren’t they?”

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