SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Has any superhero movie ever been sold on their star more than Tom Hardy and Venom? 

 

Aquaman's biggest money shot, the reason why it sold tickets, became first DCEU to cross 1B, Aqua Moms, etc

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

I was on the camp that people were underestimating Venom but domestic this is not going over 80M.

 

 

 

If they can link the Spidey movie to this movie in the movie or in an after-credits scene, well, maybe don't be too down on its box office.

 

That said, I'm still sticking to no movie over $100M til Spidey, but if one were to beat it, I'd have picked Venom 2 over Eternals...so much draw in the right demos that are going to movies right now...

[Menor the Destroyer]

Actually I'm not sure the difference between Venom and Suicide Squad's reception is as big as people think. Both had ok multipliers (TSS multi was not that good but we have seen a lot worse, and it opened much higher than Venom), identical Cinemascores, and Venom's PostTrak scores (as reported by Deadline) were somewhat higher but not overwhelmingly so. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by Menor

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Actually I'm not sure the difference between Venom and Suicide Squad's reception is as big as people think. Both had ok multipliers (TSS multi was not that good but we have seen a lot worse, and it opened much higher than Venom), identical Cinemascores, and Venom's PostTrak scores (as reported by Deadline) were somewhat higher but not overwhelmingly so. 

Venom 2 has the advantage of being a clear sequel that adds a very popular and well-known villain, whereas Suicide Squad had the same title, a confusing reboot/sequel dynamic, and a LOSS of hooks in Smith and Joker instead of gaining one like Carnage. 

[Pinacolada]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Venom 2 has the advantage of being a clear sequel that adds a very popular and well-known villain, whereas Suicide Squad had the same title, a confusing reboot/sequel dynamic, and a LOSS of hooks in Smith and Joker instead of gaining one like Carnage. 

^This is where im at with the Venom 2 vs TSS talk

Edited September 6, 2021 by Pinacolada

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Venom 2 has the advantage of being a clear sequel that adds a very popular and well-known villain, whereas Suicide Squad had the same title, a confusing reboot/sequel dynamic, and a LOSS of hooks in Smith and Joker instead of gaining one like Carnage. 

Yeah, I agree with that. V2 has much more going for it than TSS, which is why I'm predicting a stable gross domestically (OS will probably drop of course, but no movie can do much about that). And of course it will be theatrical exclusive. But I don't think V2 destroying TSS's gross will have much to do with reception per se, more to do with these other factors. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by Menor

[Valonqar]

I think that SC OW w/o PA crap and BW OW despite PA crap point at that 100M OW is possible before NWH. It looks like Delta isn't as big concern as the original covid-19 and unless theaters close again (doubtful), vax'd people are certainly going back to normal living.  So V2, Bond, Eternals are the most likely contenders. As much as I would love Dune to explode, it won't happen but these 3 are solid potentials.

 

P.S. Great point about popular villain + return of popular character vs loss of Smith and Joker + villain who?

Edited September 6, 2021 by Valonqar

[Cmasterclay]

I think Venom 2 would have done 90/205 in normal times, so a slight OW increase and slight total decrease. Thinking about 65-70 OW and 175 total for this one.

[Pinacolada]

I hope Sony has that China release locked in for Venom 2. I don't know how China box office is looking in terms of normality (someone enlighten me how it's looking), but they gotta be hoping for $200m from China. I think the first one did $269m? 

 

With covid I doubt it gets that high, but yeah, V2 could really use $200m China 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I hope Sony has that China release locked in for Venom 2. I don't know how China box office is looking in terms of normality (someone enlighten me how it's looking), but they gotta be hoping for $200m from China. I think the first one did $269m? 

 

With covid I doubt it gets that high, but yeah, V2 could really use $200m China 

china is basically back to normal in terms of box office.....but the board is really unpredictable..still i fully expect venom 2 to be released there

Edited September 6, 2021 by john2000

[Valonqar]

If V2 gets China release than it will be really fun to watch whether it passes the Family WW. Right now, the Family is still the king with over 700M.

[Pinacolada]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

If V2 gets China release than it will be really fun to watch whether it passes the Family WW. Right now, the Family is still the king with over 700M.

I dont think it will. I think the International box office (not including China) is way too fucked up right now for Venom 2 to get to $700m.

 

I'm thinking if DOM is $200m(ish), China is $200m, and then the rest of international gets to like $130m(EDIT: $150M??)?? I know The Suicide Squad is at $110m internationally without China, so I think Venom would make a nice amount more.

 

That would get it to somewhere in the $500m range, which should be fine for these times, and I bet the budget is $150m tops.

Edited September 6, 2021 by Pinacolada

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Pinacolada said:

I dont think it will. I think the International box office (not including China) is way too fucked up right now for Venom 2 to get to $700m.

 

I'm thinking if DOM is $200m(ish), China is $200m, and then the rest of international gets to like $130m?? I know The Suicide Squad is at $110m internationally without China, so I think Venom would make a little bit more.

 

That would get it to somewhere in the $500m range, which should be fine for these times, and I bet the budget is $150m tops.

I think V2 could get more than just 20M over TSS OS - C. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I dont think it will. I think the International box office (not including China) is way too fucked up right now for Venom 2 to get to $700m.

 

I'm thinking if DOM is $200m(ish), China is $200m, and then the rest of international gets to like $130m?? I know The Suicide Squad is at $110m internationally without China, so I think Venom would make a little bit more.

 

That would get it to somewhere in the $500m range, which should be fine for these times, and I bet the budget is $150m tops.

V2 should not be compared to TSS. It will be way stronger OS. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

If V2 gets China release than it will be really fun to watch whether it passes the Family WW. Right now, the Family is still the king with over 700M.

In terms of American distributed films of 2021, yes…Fast 9 is still the highest grosser WW, so far. In terms of 2021 films overall in general though, that 2021 Worldwide box office crown still goes to the Chinese comedy “Hi, Mom” with $822M WW (which that gross comes mostly from China alone).

 

Just a side note, Hi, Mom is as of 2021, the highest grossing comedy film (that is purely a comedy film, and not clashed with other genres) of all time.

Edited September 6, 2021 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Pinacolada]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

V2 should not be compared to TSS. It will be way stronger OS. 

Yeah probably. But going by these other movies, including Shang Chi, I just think the International box office is truly really weak right now

Edited September 6, 2021 by Pinacolada

[Cmasterclay]

I think F9 did pretty close to what it would have done domestically, but what it has done overseas considering the situation earlier in the summer with overseas releases is nothing short of astonishing. A legit $1 billion overseas grossers in normal times. The biggest international franchise on the planet except maybbbbbe the MCU. That's family, baby.

[Amorphous]

More curious about how HALLOWEEN KILLS will do compared to Venom. Was absolutely wild to see how the previous entry was on Venom's OW heels back in '18. It's obviously going to drop, but horror has been doing pretty well in the pandemic. And from all accounts, the film is seems to be a huge crowd pleasure so WOM should be really strong for it. Trailer views are not that great, but I'm not sure if Universal has really kicked off the marketing just yet. Should start this week, I assume. 

[Valonqar]

Just now, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

In terms of American distributed films of 2021, yes…Fast 9 is still the highest grosser WW, so far. In terms of 2021 films overall in general though, that 2021 Worldwide box office crown goes to the Chinese comedy “Hi, Mom” with $822M WW (which that gross comes mostly from China alone).

 

that is absolutely crazy! $821M from China alone (just checked Mojo) is almost Endgame domestic number. Fascinating market.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Amorphous said:

More curious about how HALLOWEEN KILLS will do compared to Venom. Was absolutely wild to see how the previous entry was on Venom's OW heels back in '18. It's obviously going to drop, but horror has been doing pretty well in the pandemic. And from all accounts, the film is seems to be a huge crowd pleasure so WOM should be really strong for it. Trailer views are not that great, but I'm not sure if Universal has really kicked off the marketing just yet. Should start this week, I assume. 

Trailer views are pretty solid, actually - I was surprised. I think it does about 45-50 - it's the kind of thing that won't suffer much due to pandemic or competition.