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MrPink

Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

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Honestly, this could move out of July to like late September (still a rather open month) and the month wouldn't suffer from it since Mission: Impossible/Barbie/Haunted Mansion will make nice amounts of money anyway but yeah, after all the marketing money they've already spent on this since last summer for the July release I doubt they move it.

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So what do you guys think about its BO prospects? I think it can do at least 150M domestic. Imitation Game made 90M, but Oppenheimer deals with a more known and actual subject matter, plus NOLAN brand

Edited by Maggie
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25 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So what do you guys think about its BO prospects? I think it can do at least 150M domestic. Imitation Game made 90M, but Oppenheimer deals with a more known and actual subject matter, plus NOLAN brand

OW: $45-$60M 

DOM: $140M-$185M

WW: $350M-$500M

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41 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So what do you guys think about its BO prospects? I think it can do at least 150M domestic. Imitation Game made 90M, but Oppenheimer deals with a more known and actual subject matter, plus NOLAN brand


I see it having a so so opening weekend of like $40M and probably won’t open to No 1. However, the film will have great WOM, particularly overseas where Nolan is very popular. Think it will probably land around Dunkirk numbers, maybe a bit higher.

Edited by AMC Theaters Enjoyer
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More I think about it, it's gonna do pretty well domestic, around 140-150m but not terribly well OS. Looking at Dunkirk it would be extremely hard for Oppenheimer to make up for the UK and China's grosses from that OS run. So I'm thinking maybe 300-350m WW.

Edited by MrPink
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Honestly, this could move out of July to like late September (still a rather open month) and the month wouldn't suffer from it since Mission: Impossible/Barbie/Haunted Mansion will make nice amounts of money anyway but yeah, after all the marketing money they've already spent on this since last summer for the July release I doubt they move it.

Haunted Mansion is making like $55m total lol

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Why would it get delayed? There is zero benefit in that. July is perfect for this and doesn't really matter what films are opening around it., It will have its own audience, not competing with BARBIE or MI. Different demo. If it's getting great WoM, gonna have a leggy run. Whole August is there. It is also unfair to compared to previous Nolan action blockbusters. It's a biopic. If it does 150m domestic that would be terrific for a biopic, shouldn't be looked at a dispapointment. 

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2 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Why would it get delayed? There is zero benefit in that. July is perfect for this and doesn't really matter what films are opening around it., It will have its own audience, not competing with BARBIE or MI. Different demo. If it's getting great WoM, gonna have a leggy run. Whole August is there. It is also unfair to compared to previous Nolan action blockbusters. It's a biopic. If it does 150m domestic that would be terrific for a biopic, shouldn't be looked at a dispapointment. 

150 is great for a bio pic if the budget isnt a 100 

Edited by screambaby
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22 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Why would it get delayed? There is zero benefit in that. July is perfect for this and doesn't really matter what films are opening around it., It will have its own audience, not competing with BARBIE or MI. Different demo. If it's getting great WoM, gonna have a leggy run. Whole August is there. It is also unfair to compared to previous Nolan action blockbusters. It's a biopic. If it does 150m domestic that would be terrific for a biopic, shouldn't be looked at a dispapointment. 

Because Fall and the Holiday season are considered a better season for really serious Dramas then the summer.

And, that is not a Nolan action blockbuaster is why I am sketpical about this film at the box office.

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Oppenheimer isn't getting delayed. It's clear the interviewee meant later in the year. It's going to face tougher competition than Barbie in many other slots.

 

Not to mention you don't want it and Napoleon overrunning. That's just lost money for major historicals.

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