Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

[zlazer]

So 13 Oscar Nominations - And a favorite for 

 

1. Picture
2. Director 
3. Leading Actor 
4. Supporting Actor
5. Cinematography
6. Editing
7. Sound
8. Original Score

This would put it on a list of one of the most decorated Oscar films ever. 

[cannastop]

if Sound was still two categories, Oppenheimer almost certainly would have had 14 nominations.

[WittyUsername]

One things for sure, there’s gonna be a backlash if this doesn’t win Best Picture. 

[Issac Newton]

 

29 March 2024 release @keysersoze123

[eeetooki]

Apparently they are also doing a rerelease in China on March 1st.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[cannastop]

Is Oppenheimer going to win 11 Oscars?

I think it's going to win 11 Oscars.

And it's not going to have the benefit of Sound being two categories like Titanic and LOTR had.

[eeetooki]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Is Oppenheimer going to win 11 Oscars?

I think it's going to win 11 Oscars.

And it's not going to have the benefit of Sound being two categories like Titanic and LOTR had.

Even as a Nolan fan I think that's way too optimistic lol

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

Even as a Nolan fan I think that's way too optimistic lol

hmm yeah I'm not exactly a Nolan stan (most of my posts aren't about Oppenheimer)

So maybe realistically it can get 9 oscars. 🤷‍♂️

[redfirebird2008]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

hmm yeah I'm not exactly a Nolan stan (most of my posts aren't about Oppenheimer)

So maybe realistically it can get 9 oscars. 🤷‍♂️

Nah. Maybe 5-7 wins. Unlikely to be more than 7. 

[KeepItU25071906]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

hmm yeah I'm not exactly a Nolan stan (most of my posts aren't about Oppenheimer)

So maybe realistically it can get 9 oscars. 🤷‍♂️

I think, it will take 7:

Sound

Cinematography

Original Score

Editing

Supporting actor

Director

Picture

 

 

[reddevil19]

6 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

I think, it will take 7:

Sound

Cinematography

Original Score

Editing

Supporting actor

Director

Picture

 

 

With a 45% chance for Actor (let's see SAG) and 30% for screenplay.

Anything between 4 and 9 is possible. 6 seems the most likely to me atm (I'm seeing The Holdovers take Original Screenplay, Supp. Actress, Actor and Picture as I can't see it being out of the top 3 on the very vast majority of ballots and I don't think Oppie will have enough number 1's to win outright)

[Valonqar]

Why people think that Holdovers will win Picture or that there will be a split between Nolan and any other movie? Are there signs that voters don't like Oppenheimer? I mean, The Holdovers couldn't even get SAG Ensemble. So far, most upsets came from movies that got SAG Ensemble noms (CODA, Parasite) vs movies that didn't (TPOTD, 1917) or neither got SAG Ensemble (Green Book vs ROMA). Oppenheimer got Ensemble nom. 

[titanic2187]

18 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Why people think that Holdovers will win Picture or that there will be a split between Nolan and any other movie? Are there signs that voters don't like Oppenheimer? I mean, The Holdovers couldn't even get SAG Ensemble. So far, most upsets came from movies that got SAG Ensemble noms (CODA, Parasite) vs movies that didn't (TPOTD, 1917) or neither got SAG Ensemble (Green Book vs ROMA). Oppenheimer got Ensemble nom. 

People completely overstate the importance of SAG ensemble. I would say parasite and spotlight are the only two movies that actually got their chance boosted by SAG win.  CODA, EEAAO got PGA win too so you can’t attribute SAG ensemble win for their eventual takeover at the Oscar. 
 

And green book isn’t the only recent winner that won best picture without SAG nomination. Nomadland and the shape of water achieved the same too. 3 best picture winner without SAG ensemble nom in the past 10 years isn’t statistically insignificant at all. 
 

Why holdovers is such a big threat? Because the movie has a near-locked best supporting actress win. Being a frontrunner in best original screenplay, holdovers is already within striking distance to take Oppenheimer down. Supporting role + screenplay combo has been a “successful” pair of win for best picture winner lately. CODA, moonlight, green book and 12 years a slave won best picture with this combo. Argo and spotlight come close to this wining formula too. 

[reddevil19]

Yes, it's got a locked acting win and a very high chance of screenplay. Giamatti is also favoured over Murphy and Oppenheimer is probably 3rd in a veeeery stacked adapted category. Screenplay + 1, maybe 2 acting wins in a "feel-good" movie with no detractors is a deadly combination.

Honestly, if Oppenheimer doesn't win in the first round with enough outright #1 votes, it's The Holdovers that takes - it's gonna be top 3 for the vast majority of voters I think. 

[Valonqar]

Holdovers isn't the frontrunner in the Original Script. Anatomy of the Fall is right there too. I agree about supporting role and screenplay combo being the most successful in getting Picture wins but Anatomy could take the script. It overperformed with nominations so they could award it somewhere and Script looks the most likely. Stone is winning Actress, Nolan Director, so if they want to award Anatomy somewhere that's the place. Holdovers could take 2 acting Oscars instead of one. 

[reddevil19]

I believe only 6 foreign language films have ever won original screenplay, with only two in the last 50 years. One of those was the big winner of the night (which Anatomy is very unlikely to match here) - they went very big for Parasite at that one.

And the other was in a very weak year (AND a year with TWO Spanish language nominated films, increasing the chances of said win being foreign). Holdovers is THE alternative to Oppenheimer this season, and still the favourite for original screenplay. It's favoured due to the ranked system and combined with the other categories where it has a better chance than Oppenheimer at winning (actor and screenplay), let's just say I'm putting it slightly in the lead right now.

 

There's also over a month left - a lot can still happen with the campaigns and between the two films, Oppenheimer, as the 800 lbs gorilla in the room is the one most vulnerable to changes in that window.

 

Personally I LOVE big epics sweeping. I don't care if it's boring - I appreciate when something comes along and wins over the public, the critics and the industry. I WANT it to take home 10, including screenplay, actor and production design (this last one coming in as a coattail due to the sweep). But right now I can't get over the fact that we haven't had such a movie in ages. Even the one movie that HAS won big, EEAAO, is "the little movie with heart", compared to Oppenheimer, despite its dominance in the season.

Edited January 31 by reddevil19

[JustLurking]

The Holdovers winning would be a very academy pick. And by that I mean a safe choice that leaves no impact and nobody talks about anymore in a year.

[KeepItU25071906]

6 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

With a 45% chance for Actor (let's see SAG) and 30% for screenplay.

Anything between 4 and 9 is possible. 6 seems the most likely to me atm (I'm seeing The Holdovers take Original Screenplay, Supp. Actress, Actor and Picture as I can't see it being out of the top 3 on the very vast majority of ballots and I don't think Oppie will have enough number 1's to win outright)

Don't believe in Cillian's chances till Bafta + SAG.

 

The Holdovers? Has to take PGA, right now Oppy is absolute frontrunner.