Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

[WittyUsername]

I’d have to assume the Academy wouldn’t want to have to deal with the backlash of not giving Oppy Best Picture. 

[CoolioD1]

The Holdovers is my favourite from what I've seen of the line-up but i don't really want it to win. I feel like everyone's gonna pile on it and treat it like a Green Book if that happens. some movies it's better not to win. But I hope Paul Giamatti wins.

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I’d have to assume the Academy wouldn’t want to have to deal with the backlash of not giving Oppy Best Picture. 

 

That's not possible cause they aren't a hive mind. But I don't think there will be Director/Picture split this year. There's nothing about Oppenheimer that I can think of that would make majority of voters look for an alternative.

[eeetooki]

5 hours ago, JustLurking said:

The Holdovers winning would be a very academy pick. And by that I mean a safe choice that leaves no impact and nobody talks about anymore in a year.

 

If The Holders win then it's just going to be another Oscar winning film that most people don't care about, but it's not surprising I guess.

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, eeetooki said:

 

If The Holders win then it's just going to be another Oscar winning film that most people don't care about, but it's not surprising I guess.

Only 3 of the Best Pic noms made over $100m WW last year, with many still endless arguing that Flower Moon was a flop. The Academy has stopping caring about the most popular movies winning for a long time now.

 

Oppenheimer winning would make it the biggest hit to win in 20 years since.. . Return of the King?

 

Voters at least don't have to be embarassed voting for Oppy. Both well liked by critics AND made lots of money too. It checks all the boxes of being a popular winner.

Edited February 1 by Mojoguy

[Last Man Standing]

7 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

I’d have to assume the Academy wouldn’t want to have to deal with the backlash of not giving Oppy Best Picture. 

Since when did the Academy care about backlash?

[Issac Newton]

 

Official Poster here

[Issac Newton]

3月29日(金)公開のクリストファー・ノーラン監督最新作
『オッペンハイマー』日本版予告が完成しました。
ナレーションは渡辺謙さんが担当しています。https://t.co/fagvrujdxs

— ビターズ・エンド 公式 (@BittersEnd_inc) January 31, 2024

[redfirebird2008]

12 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Why people think that Holdovers will win Picture or that there will be a split between Nolan and any other movie? Are there signs that voters don't like Oppenheimer? I mean, The Holdovers couldn't even get SAG Ensemble. So far, most upsets came from movies that got SAG Ensemble noms (CODA, Parasite) vs movies that didn't (TPOTD, 1917) or neither got SAG Ensemble (Green Book vs ROMA). Oppenheimer got Ensemble nom. 

Perceived “frontrunner” status can lead to people voting for other movies since they figure Oppy will have plenty of support from other voters. I don’t mind if that happens in Best Picture, but I’m hoping it doesn’t happen to Nolan in the Best Director category. 

[lorddemaxus]

48 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Perceived “frontrunner” status can lead to people voting for other movies since they figure Oppy will have plenty of support from other voters. I don’t mind if that happens in Best Picture, but I’m hoping it doesn’t happen to Nolan in the Best Director category. 

No other director in that list has enough passionate supporters for that to happen. About as locked as the Daniels were last year.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Perceived “frontrunner” status can lead to people voting for other movies since they figure Oppy will have plenty of support from other voters. I don’t mind if that happens in Best Picture, but I’m hoping it doesn’t happen to Nolan in the Best Director category. 

Nolan is basically locked for Director at this point. The only people one can confidently say are more guaranteed for their wins are RDJ and Da'Vine Joy Randolph in the Supporting categories.

[titanic2187]

I too, think Nolan is locked for best director but let's not put the guard down since there are precedents that you can win anything on the road only to fumble at the Oscar

 

Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon (won GG, DGA, BAFTA) but lost to Soderbergh for Traffic at the Oscar

Ben Affleck for Argo (won GG,CC, DGA and BAFTA) but wasn't even nominated. Ang Lee got Oscar instead.

Sam Mendes for 1917(won GG, CC, DGA and BAFTA) but still lost to Bong at the Oscar.

 

You can throw in Fincher case too but Fincher did lost DGA to Hooper so there was some small hint at the Oscar upset.

 

 

[Last Man Standing]

5 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

Official Poster here

WB should sell this as a Godzilla prequel in Japan.

[Valonqar]

9 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Perceived “frontrunner” status can lead to people voting for other movies since they figure Oppy will have plenty of support from other voters. I don’t mind if that happens in Best Picture, but I’m hoping it doesn’t happen to Nolan in the Best Director category. 

 

 I've read somewhere, here or elsewhere, about the accidental split.  Something gets the most of #2 votes while the frontrunner with the most #1 votes doesn't get enough of them to win the first round so the one with enough #2 votes jumps over it. It's complicated system that should be abolished but AMPAS wants agreeable winners rather than divisive ones so here we are.

 

6 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I too, think Nolan is locked for best director but let's not put the guard down since there are precedents that you can win anything on the road only to fumble at the Oscar

 

Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon (won GG, DGA, BAFTA) but lost to Soderbergh for Traffic at the Oscar

Ben Affleck for Argo (won GG,CC, DGA and BAFTA) but wasn't even nominated. Ang Lee got Oscar instead.

Sam Mendes for 1917(won GG, CC, DGA and BAFTA) but still lost to Bong at the Oscar.

 

You can throw in Fincher case too but Fincher did lost DGA to Hooper so there was some small hint at the Oscar upset.

 

 

 

Because there's no complete overlap with AMPAS. GG and CC aren't even AMPAS. BAFTA overlaps to a degree but now it's getting more difficult cause jury gets to nominate 2 or 3 not the whole BAFTA body. So that's 12 people's choice. DGA and Director's Branch don't overlap either. It's even worse with SAG-AFTRA where AFTRA is no part of Actors Branch. 

 

That said, every case is different. In Lee case, you can see that GG, BAFTA and DGA enbraced foreign talent but AMPAS went American. Affleck snub for Argo seems to be some kind of split vote with Bigelow (2 political thrillers) that robbed both of a nomination. It's very weird that directors who directed political thrillers got snubbed. Lee won cause nobody really liked Lincoln save DDL performance. Mendes is an interestign case. Parasite win is explicable cause 1917 being one man show was never going to appeal to Acting Branch who are the largest voting block within AMPAS. But Bong upset was out of the left field though Parasite surge overall must have worked its magic. 

[redfirebird2008]

13 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

 I've read somewhere, here or elsewhere, about the accidental split.  Something gets the most of #2 votes while the frontrunner with the most #1 votes doesn't get enough of them to win the first round so the one with enough #2 votes jumps over it. It's complicated system that should be abolished but AMPAS wants agreeable winners rather than divisive ones so here we are.

 

 

Because there's no complete overlap with AMPAS. GG and CC aren't even AMPAS. BAFTA overlaps to a degree but now it's getting more difficult cause jury gets to nominate 2 or 3 not the whole BAFTA body. So that's 12 people's choice. DGA and Director's Branch don't overlap either. It's even worse with SAG-AFTRA where AFTRA is no part of Actors Branch. 

 

That said, every case is different. In Lee case, you can see that GG, BAFTA and DGA enbraced foreign talent but AMPAS went American. Affleck snub for Argo seems to be some kind of split vote with Bigelow (2 political thrillers) that robbed both of a nomination. It's very weird that directors who directed political thrillers got snubbed. Lee won cause nobody really liked Lincoln save DDL performance. Mendes is an interestign case. Parasite win is explicable cause 1917 being one man show was never going to appeal to Acting Branch who are the largest voting block within AMPAS. But Bong upset was out of the left field though Parasite surge overall must have worked its magic. 

Mendes won for American Beauty. Not surprised with 1917 that they chose a first time winner over him. 

[keysersoze123]

This is going to be the most predictable oscars ever for sure in a long time. Betting odds are also showing the same. 

 

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/oscars-odds/

 

minus couple of tech awards to barbie and Best Supp Actress, Oppeneheimer should sweep everything else. 

[cannastop]

On 1/31/2024 at 9:59 PM, Issac Newton said:

 

Official Poster here

will it be shown in any IMAX theaters? Such as 109 Cinemas Osaka ExpoCity or Grand Cinema Sunshine in Tokyo?

Edited February 2 by cannastop

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

will it be shown in any IMAX theaters? Such as 109 Cinemas Osaka ExpoCity or Grand Cinema Sunshine in Tokyo?

@Issac Newton shared this in Japan thread. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

26 minutes ago, cannastop said:

will it be shown in any IMAX theaters? Such as 109 Cinemas Osaka ExpoCity or Grand Cinema Sunshine in Tokyo?

 

Both Osaka Expo City &Grand Cinema Sunshine Ikebukuro confirm about releasing the film in their respective cinema 

 

Just somehow @eigarankingnews post is hinting a confusion to me.

【訂正】
申し訳ありません。IMAXの上映はまだ正式には決まっていないようです。

— タロイモ🎬興行収入まとめ (@eigarankingnews) February 1, 2024

[cannastop]

14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Both Osaka Expo City &Grand Cinema Sunshine Ikebukuro confirm about releasing the film in their respective cinema 

 

Just somehow @eigarankingnews post is hinting a confusion to me.

So it might show at these cinemas but not necessarily on the IMAX screens? Conflicting information...