Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

domestically it sure is. No way to spin it 

bond is not known for being a 200 mill dom fran in the us, reminder

Edited October 17, 2021 by john2000

[titanic2187]

HK over 50m certainly help its chance to pass 100m , even by crawling to that threshold. V2 good Saturday means the odd of over 200m is still looking good. Currently 14m ahead of BW at the same point of running. 

 

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, with NTTD losing all remaining PLFs next weekend and competing with Dune for similar demo audience, will it be looking at another 50%+ weekend drop?   

I honestly don't think so, If F9 able to only -50.3% when BW took over, NTTD will have some solid chance holding better than that. Spectre drop 55% in 3rd week because of HG part 2 that came over 100m, Dune isn't going to be that big and part of the "suffering" of losing PLF/IMAX screen was already reflected in this weekend  

[filmlover]

I mentioned this in the tracking thread the other day but I get the sense #MeToo movies are going to be this decade's answer to all the timely War In Iraq-themed movies that Hollywood made in the second half of the 2000s that pretty much all sputtered. Bombshell barely hit $30M despite the insane amount of talent behind it, Promising Young Woman likely would've struggled to find much of an audience in theaters had its original April 2020 release happened, and now The Last Duel fizzled. Don't be surprised when She Said (the movie version of the book by the two journalists who took down Weinstein starring Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan) doesn't light the box office on fire next year either.

[ThomasNicole]

Last Duel disaster is predictable, Disney is dumping Fox projects (and worse, they're good).

 

They did that with The Empty Man (released last year without any promotion and the movie only find it's audience this year with digital release available), and this keeps happening this year. The Night House is another pretty good movie that nobody saw, i'm pretty sure Antlers and French Dispatch will be the same.

 

They only applied the same "fuck this" attitude to Last Duel too and it's evident for quite some time. The movie being very disturbing just finished the disaster.

 

The only Fox movie they give a shot was Free Guy, and i bet only because it fits their more commercial family friendly formula.

[Cooper Legion]

Oddly high number of old hands in this thread who seem to be expressing the view that moviemaking is more of a charity work for the benefit of (a small niche of) the masses, or a hobby. Which, sure, it can be. But we all know that’s not the primary objective (or sufficient to justify their continued greenlighting) when budgets get into tens of millions coming from publicly traded companies.
 

Mad props to the Shyamalan model though — he made some successful movies, got his money, and he spends his money making movies he wants to make. Absolutely no fiduciary considerations there and perfectly free to make as many willful flops as his heart desires until,the purse runs out (not saying that I think he has made any deliberate flops, just, like — he could! That’s unusual).

Edited October 17, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[Cooper Legion]

19 minutes ago, john2000 said:

bond is not known for being a 200 mill dom fran in the us, reminder

It is adjusted. John Marston is completely on point here — the domestic total is gonna be really really bad for bond, a franchise with an almost unparalleled wealth of historical comps that is clearly having generational issues in this market.   

 

But DOM isn’t even the main market for these things, on a global level they’re still rocking and rolling.

[Cooper Legion]

22 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

HK over 50m certainly help its chance to pass 100m , even by crawling to that threshold. V2 good Saturday means the odd of over 200m is still looking good. Currently 14m ahead of BW at the same point of running. 

 

I honestly don't think so, If F9 able to only -50.3% when BW took over, NTTD will have some solid chance holding better than that. Spectre drop 55% in 3rd week because of HG part 2 that came over 100m, Dune isn't going to be that big and part of the "suffering" of losing PLF/IMAX screen was already reflected in this weekend  

V2 is looking to miss 200 and F9’s 3rd weekend hold is inflated by July 4 depressing the 2nd.

[Val357]

28 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol, it isn't "horrid" for Bond.  

"Lowest attended" really puts it in perspective though. I mean, this is Craig's swan song, the man who headlined the most financially successful set of Bond films ever. It's not horrible but this should have done better.

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Last Duel disaster is predictable, Disney is dumping Fox projects (and worse, they're good).

 

They did that with The Empty Man (released last year without any promotion and the movie only find it's audience this year with digital release available), and this keeps happening this year. The Night House is another pretty good movie that nobody saw, i'm pretty sure Antlers and French Dispatch will be the same.

 

They only applied the same "fuck this" attitude to Last Duel too and it's evident for quite some time. The movie being very disturbing just finished the disaster.

 

The only Fox movie they give a shot was Free Guy, and i bet only because it fits their more commercial family friendly formula.

how did they not give Last Duel a shot? Wide release. Great reviews.
Fact is that it’s audience are only coming out for IP movies, which is tragic.  Nothing to do with the studio or the film. It’s the audience’s fault. 

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

V2 is looking to miss 200 and F9’s 3rd weekend hold is inflated by July 4 depressing the 2nd.

i cant see how v2 can miss 200 dom personally its very close to v1 in terms of mill added  week to week, i would say final total 200-205

Edited October 17, 2021 by john2000

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i cant see how v2 can loose 200 dom

It’s 32M away off a 26.6M week — but inflated by Columbus Day. Adjust for that and more of a 24.6M week. So it needs 43% avg drops. But the most important week is the next one, where there is reasonably high competition (or maybe ron+dune will be like 35, that could certainly help the holdovers a bit I guess).   
 

Roughly 172.6 by th, maybe 180.8 by sun, 183 by next th, 17 away on a 10.4 week takes  38% drops with a large drop likely from Eternals.

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Last Duel disaster is predictable, Disney is dumping Fox projects (and worse, they're good).

 

They did that with The Empty Man (released last year without any promotion and the movie only find it's audience this year with digital release available), and this keeps happening this year. The Night House is another pretty good movie that nobody saw, i'm pretty sure Antlers and French Dispatch will be the same.

 

They only applied the same "fuck this" attitude to Last Duel too and it's evident for quite some time. The movie being very disturbing just finished the disaster.

 

The only Fox movie they give a shot was Free Guy, and i bet only because it fits their more commercial family friendly formula.

If The French Dispatch even does only 1/3 of The Grand Budapest Hotel that would actually be above average for an indie in this day and age. Even the specialty market has become fickle in recent years with Oscar movies scoring big averages while non-contenders (remember Last Flag Flying? Or The Front Runner?) have struggled to fill up seats even in arthouse theaters.

[EmpireCity]

10 minutes ago, Val357 said:

"Lowest attended" really puts it in perspective though. I mean, this is Craig's swan song, the man who headlined the most financially successful set of Bond films ever. It's not horrible but this should have done better.

 

We are still at the tail end of a global pandemic that tends to make sick and even kill older people.  Many places still have indoor mask mandates, and the idea of sitting in a theater for 163 minutes + trailers and ad reel is a turnoff to some.  The numbers it is doing are good and the overall global total of $700m+ is great. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Universal is actually having a really great year between F9, Forever Purge, Old, Candyman, and Halloween all delivering hits on different levels and only a few notable money-losers (Spirit Untamed, Boss Baby 2, Dear Evan Hansen) in their lineup. Sing 2 is their only remaining release for 2021 and should also at least cross $100M, so their recovery year will end up looking pretty good in the end.

They really are having a great year. Four of the hits are horror films too, nice. 
 

Great worldwide total for Bond and strong international numbers for Venom too. I’m happy with that Halloween Kills UK number too considering it was pushed to smaller rooms only. 

[Ozymandias]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

 

thats.........

 

 

yooouch for The Last Duel.  Variety says it cost 100m too.

 

It got screwed by a triple whammy of factors IMO with Disney dumping their Fox acquisitions because "hey we're a shitty conglomerate only catering to specific audiences" , older adults not returning to pre-COVID levels, and the subject matter.

 

I might see the movie this week late at night on a weekday(so I'll be the only one in the theater with no chuds breathing on me) but a buddy of mine saw it and said he couldn't believe that movie got made with a budget because of the Roshomon-like structure and the bleakness of it all.  He said its a movie deeply admirable more than it is enjoyable except for the epic duel itself which is an absolute banger.

 

 

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

It is. Not being finished in time for festivals are kinda normal, House Of Gucci and Licorice Pizza also is in the same situation, and all 3 are in the predictions for lots of categories on Oscar. 1917 was finished hours before the premiere very close to release and was the runner up on Best Picture.

 

Nightmare was actually supposed to premiere in Venice according to the festival chief, but they didn't manage to finish it. Now it will premiere on Oscar Museum (Gucci and Licorice too).

 

I don't think Disney is expecting a box office hit, but they expect awards nominations.

 

Are there actual dates for Nightmare and Gucci at this Oscar Museum place?

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Venice wanted it and Gucci from what they saw. Both will be premiering at something the Academy Museum is doing, so I'd still bank on Nightmare Alley being a contender.

Eh, considering those same sources on Venice said that Tragedy of MacBeth was so bad it got rejected (clearly, it wasn't!), I'd take that with a grain of salt. Both movies still could well be good, but I'm banking on high 70s RT for both of them.

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Oddly high number of old hands in this thread who seem to be expressing the view that moviemaking is more of a charity work for the benefit of (a small niche of) the masses, or a hobby. Which, sure, it can be. But we all know that’s not the primary objective (or sufficient to justify their continued greenlighting) when budgets get into tens of millions coming from publicly traded companies.
 

Mad props to the Shyamalan model though — he made some successful movies, got his money, and he spends his money making movies he wants to make. Absolutely no fiduciary considerations there and perfectly free to make as many willful flops as his heart desires until,the purse runs out (not saying that I think he has made any deliberate flops, just, like — he could! That’s unusual).

Movies aren't charity work, but they are art first and foremost, yes, not just branded content to shit out for money. 

[Dementeleus]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Movies aren't charity work, but they are art first and foremost, yes, not just branded content to shit out for money. 

I’m not sure this is true anymore, not for American studio movies.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I’m not sure this is true anymore, not for American studio movies.

Oh, it certainly isn't true in practice, but it SHOULD be true and how we all think of it - and it is a shame to see so many posters ready to dunk.

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Movies aren't charity work, but they are art first and foremost, yes, not just branded content to shit out for money. 

This seems more like wishful thinking than an acknowledgement of reality. A majority of movies exist in the first place because the people who financed it expect a positive return on average, not because they want to say something beautiful about the human condition or whatever

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by Let There Be Legion