Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[Lion Roar]

 

[RRA]

4 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

I mean they have similar structure sure but acting like Ant-Man, Winter Soldier, Thor Ragnarok and Black Panther are nearly the same is silly.

 

C'mon.

It’s like arguing “all 007 films are the same” as if The Spy Who Loved Me and Skyfall are story/tone-wise interchangeable. Hell you have people aching 007 to be “escapist” again (I don’t need to decode that for you folks.)

 

Folks should visit spandex cinema forums sometime. What was a popular complaint when GOTG2 and Ragnarok came out? “Too jokey, why can’t more MCU movies be more balanced like The Winter Soldier?” 

What’s funny is I revisited the first Cap movie and I realized that after 26 something movies, MCU hasn’t cranked out another movie like that and it’s throwback period piece tone despite being one of the more important movies in the MCU canon.  

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Moderation

 

Okay, this Marvel debate has gone on long enough. It's a new day tomorrow, so let's not reheat these arguments that aren't going anywhere.

[Cmasterclay]

Michael Myers kills so many people in the new Halloween movie that it would be the biggest media story in American history if it actually happened in real life

[Cmasterclay]

[Eric the Fall Guy]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Wasn't Chucky trying to kill a first grader tho?  

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Wasn't Chucky trying to kill a first grader tho?  

All I know is they did Freddy dirty

[Legion Again]

38 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Michael Myers kills so many people in the new Halloween movie that it would be the biggest media story in American history if it actually happened in real life

I mean I doubt he even gets to the Vegas shooting nums and that was largely forgotten within a month. “Bunch of people killed by maniac” doesn’t stick with American public/media the way important stories like “some Dr. Suess books going out of print” do.

[EmmaPeel]

19 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

I mean I doubt he even gets to the Vegas shooting nums and that was largely forgotten within a month. “Bunch of people killed by maniac” doesn’t stick with American public/media the way important stories like “some Dr. Suess books going out of print” do.

Wasn't there a line to that effect in the the 2018 movie? Something like "worse stuff happens today, a few people getting killed by one person with a knife isn't that bad". 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

OCTOBER 15-17:

 

1. "Halloween Kills" - 32.2

2. "No Time To Die" - 24.6 / 99.8

3. "Venom 2" - 16.4 / 168.0

4. “The Addams Family 2" - 6.0 / 41.1

5. "The Last Duel" - 5.5

6. “Shang Chi" - 2.7 / 217.1

7. "Free Guy" - 0.7 / 120.8

8. "Many Saints of Newark" - 0.5 / 8.4

9. "Lamb" - 0.4 / 1.8

10. "Dear Evan Hansen" - 0.4 / 14.6

 

OCTOBER 22-24:

 

1. "Dune" - 38.1

2. "No Time To Die" - 13.8 / 122.5

3. "Halloween Kills" - 11.9 / 52.2

4. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 9.5

5. "Venom 2" - 9.1 / 182.3

6. "The Addams Family 2" - 3.4 / 46.2

7. "The Last Duel" - 2.9 / 10.2

8. "Shang Chi" - 1.5 / 219.4

9. "Free Guy" - 0.4 / 121.4

10. "The French Dispatch" - 0.3

 

OCTOBER 29-31:

 

1. "Dune" - 17.8 / 66.5

2. "No Time To Die" - 8.3 / 135.5

3. "Last Night in Soho" - 6.5

4. "Halloween Kills" - 6.8 / 62.7

5. "Venom 2" - 5.2 / 190.4

6. "Antlers" - 4.5

7. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 4.2 / 16.7

8. "The French Dispatch" - 3.5 / 3.9

9. "My Hero Academia" - 3.3

10. "The Addams Family 2" - 2.5 / 49.9

 

Edited October 16, 2021 by ViktorLosAngeles

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

Can Halloween 2 pass 100m?? This is a step down from B+ of the first film. With this wom , likely to quickly collapse after this and crawling to 100m like GvK. Hopefully the 3rd week hold will be solid.   

[ViktorLosAngeles]

If it really opens to 47.5 million $ that Deadline is predicting, it can. But I think previews were front loaded, so don't be surprised when the opening weekend ends up in 30's. If so, 70-75 million $ is the maximum, me thinks.

[ViktorLosAngeles]

"Halloween Kills" multiple predictions:

 

1. Scenario 1, if the Deadline predictions are true, but the drops are big:

 

1. 47.5 million $

2. 15.5 / 75.7 million $

3. 9.0 / 88.7

4. 3.1 / 93.8

5. 1.2 / 96.0

6. 0.4 / 96.7

 

Total gross: 97 million $

 

2. Scenario 2, if the Deadline predictions are true, but drops are modest:

 

1. 47.5 million $

2. 19.8 / 79.7 million $

3. 11.5 / 97.2 million $

4. 4.1 / 103.9 million $

5. 1.5 / 106.3 million $

6. 0.5 / 107.2 million $

7. 0.2 / 107.5 million $

 

Total gross: 108 million $

 

3. Scenario 3, if the previews were front loaded, but weekend was still stable:

 

1. 37.5 million $

2. 13.9 / 61.7 million $

3. 8.1 / 74.0 million $

4. 3.0 / 78.8 million $

5. 1.1 / 80.8 million $

6. 0.4 / 81.5 million $

 

Total gross: 82 million $

 

4. Scenario 4 - my prediction:

 

1. 32.2 million $

2. 11.9 / 52.2 million $

3. 6.8 / 62.7 million $

4. 2.4 / 66.7 million $

5. 0.9 / 68.4 million $

6. 0.3 / 69 million $

 

Total gross: 69.5 million $

 

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

If it really opens to 47.5 million $ that Deadline is predicting, it can. But I think previews were front loaded, so don't be surprised when the opening weekend ends up in 30's. If so, 70-75 million $ is the maximum, me thinks.

The tracking thread suggests the Friday could be around $21.5m, so an opening in the 30’s doesn’t seem possible. 

[Legion Again]

A realistic worst case scenario at this point is like 5 15 14 8 for 42M. More likely to go over 50 than under 40 (it will very probably stay in the 40-50 zone tbc)

Edited October 16, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[Ryan Reynolds]

30 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

If it really opens to 47.5 million $ that Deadline is predicting, it can. But I think previews were front loaded, so don't be surprised when the opening weekend ends up in 30's. If so, 70-75 million $ is the maximum, me thinks.

another 2 weekends before Halloween will help legs

[picores]

Anything over 40m OW is good for HK, even with high frontloadness a 2x overall multiplier is nearly guaranteed. A total between 80m and 100m DOM looks great to me given the heavy drops this horror smashing hits trend to have. 

 

My guess if 21m OD holds is 46m OW and 105m DOM.

[Spidey Freak]

16 hours ago, Let There Be Legion said:

I mean I doubt he even gets to the Vegas shooting nums and that was largely forgotten within a month. “Bunch of people killed by maniac” doesn’t stick with American public/media the way important stories like “some Dr. Suess books going out of print” do.

 

Fox News would rather spend the whole week moaning about Superman's bisexual son than covering some small town murders.

 

...unless Michael were Muslim.

[Legion Again]

37 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Fox News would rather spend the whole week moaning about Superman's bisexual son than covering some small town murders.

 

...unless Michael were Muslim.

I haven’t  seen the movie (or in fact, any movie in this franchise, or any slasher ever), but I imagine they would fill at least a couple hours with “see, this is why defund was dumb and cops needs more tanks” sort of riffs.    
 

Also noting that Michael is obviously Antifa.