The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[John Marston]

JW is  a more walk up friendly franchise so still not convinced of a huge underperformance 

[filmlover]

FWIW Jurassic World is selling very well at the (extremely popular) theater I'm seeing it at this weekend and they have a show starting every 30 minutes on average. I think it's going past that $125M projection from earlier, even if we don't see anything close to record-breaking numbers.

[charlie Jatinder]

wait. who said lightyear start is bad?

[motionpic05]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

wait. who said lightyear start is bad?

Some people (including me) just said that the pre-sales for their theatres didn't start out all that amazing.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Some people (including me) just said that the pre-sales for their theatres didn't start out all that amazing.

I wouldn't expect Lightyear to be any sort of monster in terms of pre-sales tbh. It's exactly the kind of blockbuster where walk-up business will be what really drives it.

[M37]

29 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

So... what are your predictions (as of right now) for Jurassic World: Dominion and Lightyear?

 

I'm going with:
JW: $150 million

Lightyear: $75 million

Roughly 4.3 and 1.9 Morbillions for OWs, respectively 

[keysersoze123]

Quote

Venom 2

Mon - 62869/603195 1060965.85 3057 shows (+10645)
Tue - 79487/684682 1324576.71 3641 shows (+16618)
Wed - 105386/694819 1723845.68 3758 shows (+25899)
Previews Final - 206846/705013 3203659.08 3897 shows (+101460)

its pace is now below Venom 2 after being up yesterday. At this rate tomorrow it will be well down and final day also will stay down. I am thinking closer to 250K finish than 300K. TGM last week had really low alpha ratio. Not sure if JWD will have exactly same though much lower than SH movies like Bats or DS2. I am thinking 15-16m previews at this point. Even with 9x previews which is not a joke with early previews start its looking at 135-144m OW. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

[WrathOfHan]

Lightyear's selling very soft here for a movie out in 9 days; standard shows at the most popular theaters have sold almost no tickets and IMAX/Dolby sales aren't anything to write home about yet. Advertising is everywhere for it too, so it's not lack of awareness.

[WrathOfHan]

41 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

So... what are your predictions (as of right now) for Jurassic World: Dominion and Lightyear?

 

I'm going with:
JW: $150 million

Lightyear: $75 million

JW: 150M

Lightyear: ... should I start the Elvis over Lightyear OW club  

[Yandereprime101189]

Elvis might be big. I have a feeling it will be. Hell, the trailers make me want to  go out and see it.

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	140	3110	24443	12.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 393

 

Comp

1.921x of F9 T-3 (13.64M)

1.768x of Venom 2 T-3 (20.51M)

1.995x of No Time to Die T-3 (12.57M)

1.015x of Top Gun 2 T-3 (19.55M)

 

Well...it's doing better than Top Gun 2 now.

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	3501	26260	13.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 391

 

Comp

1.806x of F9 T-2 (12.83M)

1.618x of Venom 2 T-2 (18.77M)

1.873x of No Time to Die T-2 (11.8M)

0.973x of Top Gun 2 T-2 (18.73M)

 

Yeah this is boned. Oh well.

[motionpic05]

1 minute ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	3501	26260	13.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 391

 

Comp

1.806x of F9 T-2 (12.83M)

1.618x of Venom 2 T-2 (18.77M)

1.873x of No Time to Die T-2 (11.8M)

0.973x of Top Gun 2 T-2 (18.73M)

 

Yeah this is boned. Oh well.

 

I don't think we need to dig it's grave yet. Friday looks a little better. 

[LegendaryBen]

4 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	3501	26260	13.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 391

 

Comp

1.806x of F9 T-2 (12.83M)

1.618x of Venom 2 T-2 (18.77M)

1.873x of No Time to Die T-2 (11.8M)

0.973x of Top Gun 2 T-2 (18.73M)

 

Yeah this is boned. Oh well.

@John Marston what are your final predictions on JWD? Are you still convinced it will overperform?

[motionpic05]

Anyone ever find out where the $125m OW prediction came from?

 

It definitely looks Friday is way better than Thursday. 

$125m is the floor in my opinion. But, $200m is far out the window.

[Grebacio]

51 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

So... what are your predictions (as of right now) for Jurassic World: Dominion and Lightyear?

 

I'm going with:
JW: $150 million

Lightyear: $75 million

JW: 153M

Lightyear: 102M

[Eric Prime]

Lightyear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	102	184	19172	0.96%

 

Comp

2.706x of Jungle Cruise T-9 (7.31M)

2.217x of Encanto's First Day of Sales (3.32M)

0.274x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-9 (1.71M)

1.057x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2's First Day of Sales (6.61M)

 

@Blankments wanted to be notified when I got the first batch of Lightyear presales up. So...here you go. I'm sure people will pronounce doom and gloom, but short ticket windows like these are very complicated, considering other movies have so much longer time to build up sales, hence using Sonic's first day as a comparison. I do think it might need a bit more momentum than normal, but things are still up in the air IMO

[Borobudur]

Is it a less passionate review pushing even more people to actual weekend than usual for JWD? 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Borobudur

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	38	26275	0.14%

 

Comp

0.218x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-24 (1.36M)

 

I have only this comp to go off of...and it's not really a good comp for a movie like this...fun. 🙃

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	47	26275	0.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.193x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-23 (1.2M)

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

@John Marston what are your final predictions on JWD? Are you still convinced it will overperform?

impossible to know for sure imo  until opening day 

[Alex SciChannel]

I saw the film today and my theater had a blast. WOM will definitely be good imo.