The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	182	737	358	0	18
Seats Added	15,669	80,875	33,239	0	2,790
Seats Sold	41,682	26,190	16,409	10,747	8,949
7/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,805	361,999	1,250,976	28.94%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	43	267	777	1,450
ATP
$16.34

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$25.3	$25.7	$23.1	$26.2	$27.1	$28.6
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

Out of likes but that is a really strong day. So with 160K final day it finishes around 522k. like for like should be around 510K. Should be good for ~27m previews. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Out of likes but that is a really strong day. So with 160K final day it finishes around 522k. like for like should be around 510K. Should be good for ~27m previews. 

Ignore, huge mistake in remembering numbers. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[ThomasNicole]

27-28M would probably locks 150M OW. Hoping tomorrow will deliver again.

 

After all the doom and gloom, that would be nice. 

 

Could be better? Sure, but could be worse too.

[ThomasNicole]

My group of friends loved the movie (they really dislike Eternals and was meh on DS2) pretty much because it was such a fun time in their words. 

 

Hopefully it will be like this in US, an A cinemascore could do wonders with lack of competition.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Hopefully it will be like this in US, an A cinemascore could do wonders with lack of competition.

I was just looking at the schedule for the rest of the summer through the fall and let's just say it's going to be really light. Not including the various re-releases, August has a total of 8 confirmed wide releases (although Barbarian and Three Thousand Years of Longing barely qualify since they open on the last day of the month), September has 5 (possibly 6 depending on how wide See How They Run will be opening), and October also has 6. Theaters might want to continue getting used to movies sticking around for months and months a little while longer.

Edited July 7, 2022 by filmlover

[THUNDER BIRD]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Out of likes but that is a really strong day. So with 160K final day it finishes around 522k. like for like should be around 510K. Should be good for ~27m previews. 

Dr Strange 2 Multiplier will mean sub 140 with these previews.

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	217	9229	39390	23.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 958

 

Comp

0.392x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-2 (19.58M)

1.057x of The Batman T-2 (22.83M)

0.594x of Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (21.38M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	223	10650	39959	26.65%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,421

 

Comp

0.406x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-1 (20.32M)

1.080x of The Batman T-1 (23.33M)

0.615x of Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (22.13M)

[charlie Jatinder]

Nice. So WED coming on sort of expected number. Now on to the big THU. Hoping for 150K+, preferably closer to 175K.

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	273	13040	2.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.411x of F9 T-16 (2.92M)

4.707x of Space Jam 2 T-16 (61.66M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	286	13040	2.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp

0.407x of F9 T-15 (2.89M)

3.446x of Space Jam 2 T-15 (45.14M)

[Liiviig 1998]

22 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

27-28M would probably locks 150M OW. Hoping tomorrow will deliver again.

 

After all the doom and gloom, that would be nice. 

 

Could be better? Sure, but could be worse too.

Sticking with my 155m OW.

Think reception stateside should be better A/A-  for a finish around DS2 domestic.

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Sticking with my 155m OW.

Think reception stateside should be better A/A-  for a finish around DS2 domestic.

 

even better legs than Ragnarok?

[titanic2187]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I was just looking at the schedule for the rest of the summer through the fall and let's just say it's going to be really light. Not including the various re-releases, August has a total of 8 confirmed wide releases (although Barbarian and Three Thousand Years of Longing barely qualify since they open on the last day of the month), September has 5 (possibly 6 depending on how wide See How They Run will be opening), and October also has 6. Theaters might want to continue getting used to movies sticking around for months and months a little while longer.

That depend on how fast the movie go to Disney+. If this is another 48 days bullshit treatment for a giant grosser, competition or not will be a non-factor. 

 

37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Out of likes but that is a really strong day. So with 160K final day it finishes around 522k. like for like should be around 510K. Should be good for ~27m previews. 

I believe it is safe to say the movie will continue to outpace DS2 from here, including IM throughout the weekend. I just can’t see a fun adventure, with less fan-bait plot and less interconnected, attract casual moviegoers lesser than DS2. 

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

That depend on how fast the movie go to Disney+. If this is another 48 days bullshit treatment for a giant grosser, competition or not will be a non-factor. 

 

I believe it is safe to say the movie will continue to outpace DS2 from here, including IM throughout the weekend. I just can’t see a fun adventure, with less fan-bait plot and less interconnected, attract casual moviegoers lesser than DS2. 

Thor is also a part 4 movie and opening in July which should lead more people to go to early shows than in May. Also I’d say even casuals these days are intrigued by the multiverse/crossover stuff (especially after NWH and how DS2 teased Professor X in the previews) 

Edited July 7, 2022 by John Marston

[THUNDER BIRD]

11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I just can’t see a fun adventure, with less fan-bait plot and less interconnected, attract casual moviegoers lesser than DS2. 

Because DS 2 was a bigger movie.

 

It was being set up nicely since WandaVision aired, then Loki, What If, Spiderman NWH just boosted it to be this grand Multiversal event movie.

 

The fact that It didn't turn out to be like that is different issue completely.

[charlie Jatinder]

Please take legs, DSitMoM discussions to respective thread. Pre-sales and Buzz posts only.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Thor sales are fine for PLF here but anemic for regular showtimes (like 430, etc). The 3D at both AMC and Cinemark remains untouched 

[titanic2187]

28 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Thor is also a part 4 movie and opening in July which should lead more people to go to early shows than in May. Also I’d say even casuals these days are intrigued by the multiverse/crossover stuff (especially after NWH and how DS2 teased Professor X in the previews) 

The worry of being spoiled and less enthusiastic review should push some crowd from preview day to actual weekend. And I don’t think LT will scare some families away like DS2.

[M37]

Glad to see Thor had a good day - the doom and gloom was getting to be a bit much.  With that said, it looks more like the depression impact of the holiday finally caught back up, and would advise caution on over-correcting the outlook too much in the opposite direction

 

Adding another 150K+ tickets - much less 160K or 175K - for Alpha on Thursday would be a significant anomaly from the data and pattern in hand.  More likely outcome based on my analysis is an additional 120K-135K sales, for a final total under 500K.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by M37

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Glad to see Thor had a good day - the doom and gloom was getting to be a bit much.  With that said, it looks more like the depression impact of the holiday finally caught back up, and would advise caution on over-correcting the outlook too much in the opposite direction

 

Adding another 150K+ tickets - much less 160K or 175K - for Alpha on Thursday would be a significant anomaly from the data and pattern in hand.  More likely outcome based on my analysis is an additional 120K-135K sales, for a final total under 500K.

 

 

DS2 went 38k-142k, Thor going 41k-150k doesn't seem like too big of an ask. 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

DS2 went 38k-142k, Thor going 41k-150k doesn't seem like too big of an ask. 

But that 41K for Thor was partially a catch-up from previous days of diminished sales, and a weak total for MoM in context of its final week trajectory. For T-2 & T-1, it’s 77K vs 68K, so if you want to extrapolate for T-0, that’s a least a more reasonable comparison 

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by M37