The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[DisposedData]

4 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

So people are freaking out over weaker 1st day of the presale cycle? If avatar 2 and PIB2 offer any lesson, even a full OW can't really seal a deal yet. 

I don't think an MCU film should be compared to those, they are a lot more predictable than that.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

When did ticket sales start? its too early for numbers. One thing I can say is sites have not crashed. 

 

9am EST today...

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: vol 3 MTC1 previews - 33127/1130895 606713.29 6901 shows

 

Meh start for sure. if I have to guess its going to start slower than Ant 3. Dont want to extrapolate or predict previews/OW so early. Let us see how things go. 

 

MTC2 initial allocation is 3641 shows. Lowest among all mega MTC openers since last year including Ant 3 !!!

 

So, ummm, my 2 locals had this trend dead on yesterday:)...the power of the locals' sets:)...

Edited April 3, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[MattW]

My guess is that GotG3's start is probably a victim of mario being in full swing ready to open in 2 days with a lot of overlapping demos between the two.

[Firepower]

22 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

So people are freaking out over weaker 1st day of the presale cycle? If avatar 2 and PIB2 offer any lesson, even a full OW can't really seal a deal yet. 

MCU is not Avatar or PiB though, those are WOM movies, MCU is extremely frontloaded.

[Firepower]

I'm not surprised by GOTG3 start. Trailer stats implied lack of interest, it had less views than Ant-Man 3 and just soft views/likes stats in general. Looks like it's a pretty reliable indication, especially with nerd stuff where it needs to have a lot of views and likes by default.

[Flamengo81]

34 minutes ago, YM! said:

Those examples you used had Christmas, holidays and weak competition to fall back on. But I agree otherwise.

And most important: they were not MCU movies which are 100% guaranteed to be way more frontloaded than Avatar and Puss in Boots.

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Still early days for GOTG3, but a friendly reminder for comps that BP2 had Veterans Day amping up its Friday sales (and conversely, perhaps deflating Thu a bit).

Sense and reason? In the tracking thread? Get outta here you!

[PrinceRico]

We also need to remember GOTG2 was a step down in quality from the first so some might might be Igor to rush out and see this one.

[thajdikt]

A big problem in my opinion is that the marketing has done nothing to amp this movie up so far other than it is another Guardians movie. Gunn can tweet about it as much as he like how this is a big goodbye to the Guardians but the marketing has not good a job getting that out. In a post Endgame world where the movies have had mixed reaction it makes sense that the interest isn´t that high 1 month out without a clear hook like Ant-Man. Many are probably waiting to see WOM and reviews after being burnt to many times.

 

Ant-Man got a ticket sales announcement right after a new trailer had dropped during a big football game and Wakanda Forever dropped ticket sales alongside a trailer. For this one they just tweeted. With the premiere just being 7 days before Thursday previews it doesn´t look like the plan is to use WOM to boost the movie either. Wouldn´t be surprised if we get many TV spots that are more revealing if it stays on a trajectory behind Ant-Man. I can´t imagine Gunn missing so I´m surprised that they don´t want to get reactions out earlier.

[froztking]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

Superhero fatigue is possible, but maybe people  are not that excited because they know  Gunn has abandoned ship and went to DC. Anyway, i'm sure it will still be big

first of all how many ppl u think watched first 2 movies for gunn ? not even 10% ! and second the suicide squad didn't even do 200m$  yes it released during covid same as black widow ! but black widow dom was more than tss ww !

[SpiderByte]

6 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

With the premiere just being 7 days before Thursday previews it doesn´t look like the plan is to use WOM to boost the movie either

The premiere is currently scheduled for this week.

[dobrevv]

5 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

A big problem in my opinion is that the marketing has done nothing to amp this movie up so far other than it is another Guardians movie. Gunn can tweet about it as much as he like how this is a big goodbye to the Guardians but the marketing has not good a job getting that out. In a post Endgame world where the movies have had mixed reaction it makes sense that the interest isn´t that high 1 month out without a clear hook like Ant-Man. Many are probably waiting to see WOM and reviews after being burnt to many times.

 

Ant-Man got a ticket sales announcement right after a new trailer had dropped during a big football game and Wakanda Forever dropped ticket sales alongside a trailer. For this one they just tweeted. With the premiere just being 7 days before Thursday previews it doesn´t look like the plan is to use WOM to boost the movie either. Wouldn´t be surprised if we get many TV spots that are more revealing if it stays on a trajectory behind Ant-Man. I can´t imagine Gunn missing so I´m surprised that they don´t want to get reactions out earlier.

they have 1:30 min new trailer but i think cause blue beetle and spiderverse were said to release trailers today they didnt release it 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

A big problem in my opinion is that the marketing has done nothing to amp this movie up so far other than it is another Guardians movie. Gunn can tweet about it as much as he like how this is a big goodbye to the Guardians but the marketing has not good a job getting that out. In a post Endgame world where the movies have had mixed reaction it makes sense that the interest isn´t that high 1 month out without a clear hook like Ant-Man. Many are probably waiting to see WOM and reviews after being burnt to many times.

 

Ant-Man got a ticket sales announcement right after a new trailer had dropped during a big football game and Wakanda Forever dropped ticket sales alongside a trailer. For this one they just tweeted. With the premiere just being 7 days before Thursday previews it doesn´t look like the plan is to use WOM to boost the movie either. Wouldn´t be surprised if we get many TV spots that are more revealing if it stays on a trajectory behind Ant-Man. I can´t imagine Gunn missing so I´m surprised that they don´t want to get reactions out earlier.

We don't have a hard premiere date yet I thought (as we discussed in the GOTG thread that website keeps changing it). 

 

Anyway very poor start (by MCU standards) from what I can see. I think 24h PS could end significantly below Ant-Man 3. We'll see if it can recover but definitely feels like brand damage is catching up to the MCU. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Agreed. This is another data point toward that theory. This is a strong brand now seeing a reduction in enthusiasm we saw a year ago for Doctor Strange.

Theres a mod that don't like it when I point this out but to be clear "underperformance" for a Marvel OW is what most other movies would kill for. This boards perception is very skewed by Endgame and Infinity War. It's less superhero fatigue for Marvel and more ludicrously high expectations for everything.

Edited April 3, 2023 by SpiderByte

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

We don't have a hard premiere date yet I thought (as we discussed in the GOTG thread that website keeps changing it). 

 

Anyway very poor start (by MCU standards) from what I can see. I think 24h PS could end significantly below Ant-Man 3. We'll see if it can recover but definitely feels like brand damage is catching up to the MCU. 

Let us see where it is tomorrow morning. For all you know it amps up once folks are back from school/work :-)

[ThomasNicole]

To be fair, Guardians is probably the most GA friendly franchise into the MCU alongside with Black Panther so maybe it will just not behave like the most typical fanboy titles 

 

Mario can be overshadowing it as well, and it´s reasonable to think maybe this time people will just wait for reviews after 5 of the last 8 MCU movies disappointed the audience 

 

56 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I'm not surprised by GOTG3 start. Trailer stats implied lack of interest, it had less views than Ant-Man 3 and just soft views/likes stats in general. Looks like it's a pretty reliable indication, especially with nerd stuff where it needs to have a lot of views and likes by default.

Deadline stats for GOTG3 trailer on it´s first day is that it was bigger than Ant Man and even DS2, it was jut more spread out 

 

But honestly, this isn´t a reliable indication at all

 

Thor had a way bigger trailer views than Wakanda Forever and DS2 despite opening 40-50M lower than both

[SpiderByte]

Trailer views and likes are worthless stats for measuring box office. We learned that years ago with detective Pikachu 

Edited April 3, 2023 by SpiderByte

[John Marston]

I think GOtg3 should have better walk ups than Ant Man 2. Still it will probably at best GOTG2 which has to be a little disappointing especially after Infinity War/Endgame 

[Eric Prime]

On 4/1/2023 at 7:22 PM, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

I don't pay close attention to MTC's numbers (sorry Keyzer ), but I feel like Thor numbers should be the goal here, unless I'm misunderstanding things. But I'm banking on lower than that. MCU oversaturation has already been a problem, and now I feel like fandom morale is at an all-time low, especially with Majors being outed as a terrible person. Makes it kind of hard to get excited for any new movie, especially one that doesn't lead into anything for the future Avengers titles. Would love to be proven wrong of course.