The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Theres a mod that don't like it when I point this out but to be clear "underperformance" for a Marvel OW is what most other movies would kill for. This boards perception is very skewed by Endgame and Infinity War. It's less superhero fatigue for Marvel and more ludicrously high expectations for everything.

What are you expecting OW for this? 

[SpiderByte]

Just now, YM! said:

What are you expecting OW for this? 

Probably in the 160+ range.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Probably in the 160+ range.

I’m thinking 140-160m. Don’t think it’s a good start though but can rebound upon reviews and as days go on. I do think the reception of Phase 4 caught up with it could be reason for lower than expected presales but could also be indicative of maybe it being more GA friendly.

[Firepower]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Trailer views and likes are worthless stats for measuring box office. We learned that years ago with detective Pikachu 

That's true, but I wouldn't say it's entirely worthless, Detective Pikachu was more of an exception, but stats can indicate whether there's enough interest or lack of it.

[Flamengo81]

This is very early of course and I think Guardians will stille be able to make something like 140M with good reception. But I think we are just a couple of years early from Batman and Spider-Man being again the only reliable big money makers apart from team up movies. Some movies will still break out and do a lot of money, but the average will go down a lot IMO.

[Hades]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I think GOtg3 should have better walk ups than Ant Man 2. Still it will probably at best GOTG2 which has to be a little disappointing especially after Infinity War/Endgame 

 

The Avengers boost is not really a thing anymore, as we saw with Antman 3 and soon Captain Marvel 2

 

 

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, Flamengo81 said:

This is very early of course and I think Guardians will stille be able to make something like 140M with good reception. But I think we are just a couple of years early from Batman and Spider-Man being again the only reliable big money makers apart from team up movies. Some movies will still break out and do a lot of money, but the average will go down a lot IMO.

To be clear this is you saying a 140 million opening is not a lot of money, and that only Batman and Spider Man make big money...despite that 140 would be above the previous Batman movie

[DisposedData]

3 minutes ago, Firepower said:

That's true, but I wouldn't say it's entirely worthless, Detective Pikachu was more of an exception, but stats can indicate whether there's enough interest or lack of it.

I think people also forget that only one Detective Pikachu trailer broke out. The second one have a very small amount of views that should have been a red flag.

[Firepower]

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Deadline stats for GOTG3 trailer on it´s first day is that it was bigger than Ant Man and even DS2, it was jut more spread out 

 

But honestly, this isn´t a reliable indication at all

 

Thor had a way bigger trailer views than Wakanda Forever and DS2 despite opening 40-50M lower than both

I track only Youtube because other platforms are usually not reliable and often used to create fake view records where studios pull numbers out of their ass, it has to be consistent on all platforms. DS2 had more views than Thor on Youtube and Thor had around Wakanda Forever views. It isn't reliable indication, but I've seen many examples where it indicated breakout or underperformance. And while I could be very wrong in the end, GoTG3 trailer views indicated underperformance.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Firepower

[SpiderByte]

13 minutes ago, Hades said:

 

The Avengers boost is not really a thing anymore, as we saw with Antman 3 and soon Captain Marvel 2

 

 

I really think people greatly overestimated how much a 3 second shot of her logo in the last seconds of Infinity War affected Captain Marvels box office. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by SpiderByte

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Let us see where it is tomorrow morning. For all you know it amps up once folks are back from school/work 🙂

 

I assume GOTG3 will have a trailer on tonight's final March Madness game, so Disney can hope that pumps sales...

[TwoMisfits]

38 minutes ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

 

Can I agree....I think I wrote in the GTG3 DOM vs Dr Strange 2 club that I saw it as almost a dead heat box office wise...but that was BEFORE the double hit of a horribly received Ant Man sequel and the big bad being an actual big bad in real life.  I gotta think between that, and this being an end, so it's almost now DCU-like - why watch now when you can wait for D+ b/ you know everything can't continue - it could be in trouble.

 

More than Ant Man 3 total DOM isn't a lift - that should be easy.  But more than Thor 4 total DOM?  It better be a very good movie...

 

And this for a suspected $250M production budget...ehhhh....

Edited April 3, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Flamengo81]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

To be clear this is you saying a 140 million opening is not a lot of money, and that only Batman and Spider Man make big money...despite that 140 would be above the previous Batman movie

That is exactly why I said "a couple of years early", I NEVER said 140M is not a lot of money. Let's also not ignore this is the final movie of the trilogy, the MCU brand is still very strong (for now) and the first two ones are very beloved. The Batman was the first entry of a movie that had to pay the sins of the disastrous BvS, was out of any big cinematic shared universe like MCU, had a very less GA friendly tone and was not PG-13 in a lot of places.

The thing is: Batman and Spider-Man are strong enough IP's to create hype unto themselves, regardless of a strong shared universe behind them (better if has though) or the genre as a whole going crazy strong. Can you imagine a Guardians movie outside of the MCU, with different actors and with the superhero genre far behind it's peak doing reliable big numbers? I can't. That is what I am saying.

[thajdikt]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I assume GOTG3 will have a trailer on tonight's final March Madness game, so Disney can hope that pumps sales...

According to Gunn re trailer:

 

 

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

So... Should I start a "Guardians 3 below Guardians 1 WW" club?

[Landon1195]

Is superhero fatigue real?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Also, if even a proven property like Guardians isn't cutting it, then the far riskier The Marvels is utterfly fucked. If I were Nia Decosta I'd seriously start thinking about asking for my name to be removed from the film, because otherwise it's more or less destined to kill her career.

[Eric is Quiet]

7 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Also, if even a proven property like Guardians isn't cutting it, then the far riskier The Marvels is utterfly fucked. If I were Nia Decosta I'd seriously start thinking about asking for my name to be removed from the film, because otherwise it's more or less destined to kill her career.

Dude, we don't need this hyperbole. She'll get another job. Also, this is getting super off-topic.

[el sid]

Later in the week I will at least once count the Thursday and/or Friday presales of Super Mario but for the moment I think enough people track it.

So something else:
Air had today 117 sold tickets for Thurday.
Comp: Champions had also on Monday of the release week for Thursday 21 sold tickets.

And for Friday Air had today 103 sold tickets.
Comps: Champions had also on Monday of the release week for Friday 70 sold tickets
and King Richard finally = on Thursday for Friday had 283 sold tickets.

Not spectacular but quite ok so far.

[Porthos]

Got done setting up sheets and...

 

GOTG3 12:40pm:           1317/29568 [4.45% sold] 205 showtimes

 

NWH 2am:                     6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                  10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:         1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:               5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:                 2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

BP2 2:15pm:                   2197/33919 [6.48% sold]

 

(AM3 being a evening release isn't a good comp and thus not included)

 

*sees a ton of posts made since last night*

 

Yeah... That'd do it.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Porthos