The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TigerPaw]

29 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

So it looks like we are in for a $150M global OW for the Flash.

I keep on hearing the third act is a big mess with some of the worst CGI ever for such a production. That won’t help the WOM.

My gut tells me it will miss $500M by the end but let’s see.

Having watched it myself, 3rd act was good - even touching. CGI is not that wonky, i caught it in IMAX and CGI is def better than Antman 3 and Thor 4.

 

WoM at least here in Asia will be good, great reviews in Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia already - multiple here will be good but maybe low OW base.

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-2]

673/10780 (6.24% sold) [+141 tickets]

0.44570x GBA            at T-2     [2.01m]

0.32108x Sonic 2      at T-2      [2.01m]

0.24616x Minions 2  at T-2      [2.65m]

0.43447x Nope         at T-2      [2.78m]

0.83189x Shazam 2  at T-2      [2.83m]

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-1]

981/10780 (9.10% sold) [+308 tickets]

0.44570x GBA            at T-1     [2.12m]

0.32108x Sonic 2      at T-1      [2.13m]

0.24616x Minions 2  at T-1      [2.62m]

0.43447x Nope         at T-1      [2.20m]

0.83189x Shazam 2  at T-1      [3.12m]

[Porthos]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:50 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-37]

585/7572 [7.73% sold]   [+39 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              307/776    [+12 tickets] [52.48% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   213/3558  [+11 tickets] [36.41% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           65/3238 [+16 tickets] [11.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-36]

594/7572 [7.73% sold]   [+9 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              311/776    [+4 tickets] [52.36% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   211/3558  [-2 tickets] [35.52% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           72/3238 [+7 tickets] [12.12% of all tickets sold]

Edited June 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23802	24186	384	1.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

384

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	53.71		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		1663	23.09%		9.67m
A2	29.09		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		4494	8.54%		4.95m
Wick 4	79.83		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	7.05%		7.11m
Indy 5	91.00		422	422		0/122	18834/19256	2.19%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     48/7967  [0.60% sold]
MATINEE INFO NOT COMPILED DUE TO LACK OF TIME

---

Sun:   32/457           [7.00% sold]

Mon:  174/2073       [8.39% sold]

Tue:   178/21656     [0.82% sold]

 

===

 

Not too bad of a start, IMO.  Didn't include TGM as a comp because that was a massively frontloaded pic locally.  Will throw in NTTD for at least a couple of days once I have its early access showings.  Am somewhat surprised at the relative lack of tickets for the Sun Walmart+ showtimes (for instance, Century Arden hasn't sold a single ticket for it's Sun showing yet), but that could just mean that Atom isn't very popular locally.

 

Now we just see where it goes from here and how much of a relative fan rush there was for this.

 

(also if folks want to bring up some comps BESIDES TGM [which I flat out refuse to use], lemme know and I'll think it over)

Edited June 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:51 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	19125	20241	1116	5.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	720
Total Seats Sold Today	10

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.98		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		10966	10.18%		8.64m
FX	123.18		36	906		0/178	26804/27710	3.27%		4122	27.07%		9.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     216/6084  [3.55% sold]
Matinee:    68/1728  [3.94% | 6.09% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	19072	20241	1169	5.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

53

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	173.44		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		6409	18.24%		10.75m
JWD	48.21		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	10.66%		8.68m
BA	137.05		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	26.01%		10.42m
Wick 4	107.54		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	21.46%		9.57m
FX	123.31		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	28.36%		9.25m
TLM	81.18		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	17.82%		8.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     226/6084  [3.71% sold]
Matinee:    72/1728  [4.17% | 6.16% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Decided it was time to rope in some new comps.  NTTD , due to difference in pre-sale length, is the clear outlier (yes, yes, let r/boxoffice know — we know, we know).

 

Actually I'm a dum-dum and was multiplying by the wrong comp.  Stupid too-complicated-for-my-own-good spreadsheets.

 

NTTD comp fixed now

 

Aside from that, lets see if this second wave of reactions/reviews really moves the needle or not.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:54 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	197	23670	26492	2822	10.65%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	255
Total Seats Sold Today	409

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.64		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	24.00%		7.70m
BA	109.85		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	62.79%		8.35m
Shazam 2	348.83		111	809		0/159	21916/22725	3.56%		1663	169.69%		11.86m
AtSV	52.23		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	28.96%		9.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     485/6041  [8.03% sold]
Matinee:    117/2323  [5.04% | 4.15% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Couple notes.  Removed the JW4 comp as it ceased being useful, IMO, as it was mostly around for pace purposes.  Also, The Batman had its first night of two EA events at T-2, so both today and tomorrow are gonna be slightly affected pace wise.  This will (hopefully) be counteracted by a stronger final day for The Flash versus it.

 

Conversely, AtSV is starting to accelerate in sales thanks to reviews + no longer worrying about MDW suppressing sales.

 

Aside from those notes?  Comps are what they are.

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	23257	26874	3617	13.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	382
Total Seats Sold Today	795

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	37.92		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	30.76%		8.19m
BA	114.68		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	80.49%		8.72m
Shazam 2	338.35		260	1069		0/165	22098/23167	4.61%		1663	217.50%		11.50m
AtSV	51.41		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	37.12%		8.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     655/6041  [10.84% sold]
Matinee:    169/2323  [7.28% | 4.67% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

[WorkingonaName]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	19072	20241	1169	5.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

53

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	173.44		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		6409	18.24%		18.63m
JWD	48.21		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	10.66%		8.68m
BA	137.05		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	26.01%		10.42m
Wick 4	107.54		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	21.46%		9.57m
FX	123.31		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	28.36%		9.25m
TLM	81.18		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	17.82%		8.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     226/6084  [3.71% sold]
Matinee:    72/1728  [4.17% | 6.16% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Decided it was time to rope in some new comps.  NTTD, due to difference in pre-sale length, is the clear outlier (yes, yes, let r/boxoffice know — we know, we know). 

 

Aside from that, lets see if this second wave of reactions/reviews really moves the needle or not.

Indiana jones confirmed for $200M opening weekend. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/12/2023 at 4:59 PM, across the Jat verse said:

The Flash MiniTC2 T-4

Previews -  3692/56827 (209 showings) $53,809

Comps
0.51x Spider-Verse 2 - $8.8M
0.93x Eternals - $9.3M (inflation-adjusted)
1.83x Black Adam - $13.9M
4.63x Shazam!! - $15.7M

YIKES.

The Flash MiniTC2 T-1

Previews -  6967/58269 (217 showings) $96,133

Comps
0.43x Spider-Verse 2 - $7.5M
0.99x Eternals - $9.9M (inflation-adjusted)
1.59x Black Adam - $12M
4.10x Shazam!! - $13.7M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/9/2023 at 7:31 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Elementals MiniTC2 T-7

 

Previews - 199/32142 (168 showings) $2288

 

Comps

0.97x Puss in Boots - $3.2M

0.20x Minions 2 - $2.2M

Best day of sales so far.

 

FRI - 306/64921 (296 showings) $3450

 

Comps

0.27x Minions 2 - $9.5M (adjusted)

Elementals MiniTC2 T-1

 

Previews - 1244/34305 (176 showings) $14404

 

Comps

0.87x Puss in Boots - $2.9M

0.18x Minions 2 - $2M

 

FRI - 1789/69378 (366 showings) $19704

 

Comps

0.16x Minions 2 - $6M

[YSLDC]

Seems like Flash sales are improving slightly compared to comps (that aren't Spider-Verse). Hope for a strong final day

Edited June 15, 2023 by YSLDC

[Mulder]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	23257	26874	3617	13.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	382
Total Seats Sold Today	795

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	37.92		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	30.76%		8.19m
BA	114.68		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	80.49%		8.72m
Shazam 2	338.35		260	1069		0/165	22098/23167	4.61%		1663	217.50%		11.50m
AtSV	51.41		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	37.12%		8.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     655/6041  [10.84% sold]
Matinee:    169/2323  [7.28% | 4.67% of all tickets sold]

ATSV slipping to under 9 million............yeesh. It's possible Sacto's underindexing as you've said but like everything there looks like an 8-9 million Preview number, with even Batman shaping up higher. Going to put the range at 9-10 million, with 10 being the high end. 54-70 million range for the weekend.

[vafrow]

On 6/14/2023 at 3:58 AM, vafrow said:

 

T-2 Flash Thursday preview update

Milton, ON

 

Another update. Another day where things aren't bad, but not great. 17% jump in sales, which roughly keeps pace, but doesn't make up ground.

 

0.857x of Fast X for $6.4M

2.077x of ROTB for $15.8M

0.254x of ATSV for $4.4M

 

Tomorrow, I should be able to bring in a GOTG3 comp, but barring anything unusual, that'll likely hover in the 6-6.5M range.

T-1 Flash Thursday preview update

 

Milton, ON

 

Flash finally had a good day. Just under 40% growth to get to 75 tickets sold. Still off the pace of comps to land closer to what others are seeing, but, it is in range to catch it with its own good walk up rate.

 

0.987x of Fast X for $7.4M

2.273x of ROTB for $17.3M

0.294x of ATSV for $5.1M

0.401 of GOTG3 for $7.0M

 

In terms of walk ups, if this sees a 100% walk up rate, it would land in a $9.5M range like we're seeing elsewhere. That type of walk up is generally rare  but we saw Transformers hit it. It doesn't feel out of the question.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

I've been tracking Elemental at my theatre (Milton, On) since it came along, but it's been at a single ticket sold for the last few weeks, so, not worth reporting.

 

However, the Saturday and Sunday sales have been decent, but almost all through a few big group blocks it seems of 10+ seats.

 

I have no benchmarks, but Saturday is at 70 tickets sold (Flash is at 51 for some basic benchmark).

 

Sunday is only at 23, which is surprising given fathers day, Flash only at 6.

 

Again, I don't have detailed comps to really do much with this, but it is encouraging that the weekend days are much better than previews.

 

Elemental T-1, Milton, ON

 

Not much to report on Elemental. Sales went from 1 to 3. Will try and monitor walk ups for anything interesting. No real change over the rest of the weekend either.

 

For a market with a lot of young families, I would hope to see this pick up, but we'll see.

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

On 6/14/2023 at 1:46 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Note that these *do* still include JW4 to remain apples to apples. Without JW4:

T-4 9.56

T-3 9.31

T-2 9.24

Sacto did at last kick up slightly:

Spoiler

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

T-4 9.35M

T-3 9.08M

T-2 8.99M

T-1 9.13M

 

Without S2:

Spoiler

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

T-4 8.85M

T-3 8.48M

T-2 8.28M

T-1 8.56M

 

Without JW4:

T-4 9.56

T-3 9.31

T-2 9.24

9.34M

 

My overall impression at T-1:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.75	$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.275	$46.16	$47.48	$48.79	$50.11	$51.43	$52.75	$54.07	$55.39	$56.71
	5.45	$47.69	$49.05	$50.41	$51.78	$53.14	$54.50	$55.86	$57.23	$58.59
	5.625	$49.22	$50.63	$52.03	$53.44	$54.84	$56.25	$57.66	$59.06	$60.47
	5.8	$50.75	$52.20	$53.65	$55.10	$56.55	$58.00	$59.45	$60.90	$62.35
	5.975	$52.28	$53.78	$55.27	$56.76	$58.26	$59.75	$61.24	$62.74	$64.23
	6.15	$53.81	$55.35	$56.89	$58.43	$59.96	$61.50	$63.04	$64.58	$66.11
	6.325	$55.34	$56.93	$58.51	$60.09	$61.67	$63.25	$64.83	$66.41	$67.99
	6.5	$56.88	$58.50	$60.13	$61.75	$63.38	$65.00	$66.63	$68.25	$69.88
	6.675	$58.41	$60.08	$61.74	$63.41	$65.08	$66.75	$68.42	$70.09	$71.76

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Sacto did at last kick up slightly:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

T-4 9.35M

T-3 9.08M

T-2 8.99M

T-1 9.13M

 

Without S2:

  Reveal hidden contents

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

T-4 8.85M

T-3 8.48M

T-2 8.28M

T-1 8.56M

 

Without JW4:

T-4 9.56

T-3 9.31

T-2 9.24

9.34M

 

My overall impression at T-1:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.75	$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.275	$46.16	$47.48	$48.79	$50.11	$51.43	$52.75	$54.07	$55.39	$56.71
	5.45	$47.69	$49.05	$50.41	$51.78	$53.14	$54.50	$55.86	$57.23	$58.59
	5.625	$49.22	$50.63	$52.03	$53.44	$54.84	$56.25	$57.66	$59.06	$60.47
	5.8	$50.75	$52.20	$53.65	$55.10	$56.55	$58.00	$59.45	$60.90	$62.35
	5.975	$52.28	$53.78	$55.27	$56.76	$58.26	$59.75	$61.24	$62.74	$64.23
	6.15	$53.81	$55.35	$56.89	$58.43	$59.96	$61.50	$63.04	$64.58	$66.11
	6.325	$55.34	$56.93	$58.51	$60.09	$61.67	$63.25	$64.83	$66.41	$67.99
	6.5	$56.88	$58.50	$60.13	$61.75	$63.38	$65.00	$66.63	$68.25	$69.88
	6.675	$58.41	$60.08	$61.74	$63.41	$65.08	$66.75	$68.42	$70.09	$71.76

 

Is a sub 6.0 multiplier really the average case at this point. Quantumania on the long weekend got to a 6.06 multiplier. I was thinking the slightly better word of mouth would counteract the summer weekday effect.

 

It wouldn't be a huge shift, but probably enough to have the bullseye number get over $60M.

 

Other than that, everything there looks in line with what the tracking is showing, even if seeing that many reasonable scenarios under $50M is jarring.

 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

20 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Sacto did at last kick up slightly:

  Hide contents

 

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

T-4 9.35M

T-3 9.08M

T-2 8.99M

T-1 9.13M

 

Without S2:

  Reveal hidden contents

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

T-4 8.85M

T-3 8.48M

T-2 8.28M

T-1 8.56M

 

Without JW4:

T-4 9.56

T-3 9.31

T-2 9.24

9.34M

 

My overall impression at T-1:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.75	$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.275	$46.16	$47.48	$48.79	$50.11	$51.43	$52.75	$54.07	$55.39	$56.71
	5.45	$47.69	$49.05	$50.41	$51.78	$53.14	$54.50	$55.86	$57.23	$58.59
	5.625	$49.22	$50.63	$52.03	$53.44	$54.84	$56.25	$57.66	$59.06	$60.47
	5.8	$50.75	$52.20	$53.65	$55.10	$56.55	$58.00	$59.45	$60.90	$62.35
	5.975	$52.28	$53.78	$55.27	$56.76	$58.26	$59.75	$61.24	$62.74	$64.23
	6.15	$53.81	$55.35	$56.89	$58.43	$59.96	$61.50	$63.04	$64.58	$66.11
	6.325	$55.34	$56.93	$58.51	$60.09	$61.67	$63.25	$64.83	$66.41	$67.99
	6.5	$56.88	$58.50	$60.13	$61.75	$63.38	$65.00	$66.63	$68.25	$69.88
	6.675	$58.41	$60.08	$61.74	$63.41	$65.08	$66.75	$68.42	$70.09	$71.76

My $47m contest prediction is now in the matrix! 

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	23802	24186	384	1.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

384

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	53.71		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		1663	23.09%		9.67m
A2	29.09		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		4494	8.54%		4.95m
Wick 4	79.83		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	7.05%		7.11m
Indy 5	91.00		422	422		0/122	18834/19256	2.19%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     48/7967  [0.60% sold]
MATINEE INFO NOT COMPILED DUE TO LACK OF TIME

---

Sun:   32/457           [7.00% sold]

Mon:  174/2073       [8.39% sold]

Tue:   178/21656     [0.82% sold]

 

===

 

Not too bad of a start, IMO.  Didn't include TGM as a comp because that was a massively frontloaded pic locally.  Will throw in NTTD for at least a couple of days once I have its early access showings.  Am somewhat surprised at the relative lack of tickets for the Sun Walmart+ showtimes (for instance, Century Arden hasn't sold a single ticket for it's Sun showing yet), but that could just mean that Atom isn't very popular locally.

 

Now we just see where it goes from here and how much of a relative fan rush there was for this.

 

(also if folks want to bring up some comps BESIDES TGM [which I flat out refuse to use], lemme know and I'll think it over)

 

Is A2 Avatar 2 - if not, I'd suggest that one, even though it's December for similar long length blockbuster sequel with a Caucasian and male slanted audience full of amazing on screen visuals...

[M37]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

Less than 2 days from release, and Flash sales remain .... soft, but also weird? Its not really following any typical pattern: pacing now well below the more GA friendly films like BA and ATSV, but also not like a typical CBM. I even did a spot check on the Tampa/St Pete market, not so much for volume but just too look at sales patterns and found ... even more weirdness.

IMO, there is clearly something going on "under the hood", disrupting typical sales patterns, and I have a guess as to what that might be [alas, this post is already long enough], but data is such that one can reasonably argue that its pulling an AMWQ-style big fan rush and little GA appeal and will continue to limp to the finish and IM poorly, or that it will be walk-up heavy (and IM better) from here, more similar to Fast X

 

Values vs the common comps continue the downward slide

 

But if you want some level of reasonable hopium, here's what I wrote on T-3 regarding Fast X, where the casual audience did in fact show up, and a walk-up friendly finish led to a $7.5M preview

 

And though data is more limited, here's how Flash has been holding vs Fast X comps: still some downwards motion in last day or two, but longer term track has mostly held steady.  Maybe the all that promo work & early review release helped to pull some sales earlier, with both Sacto and Orlando slightly ahead of where they landed at T-14, and outlier Philly coming back down to the pack

 

Again, I don't think necessarily believe those comp $ values will verify, but am watching the relative pace here closely, which does still keep $10M+ Thursday in play

 

I'm sure others are as tired of talking about this film as I am, but personally am not convinced we "have seen enough" to really nail down with reasonable precision what kind of sales and IM pattern will follow through Sunday. Anything from like $55M to $75M OW wouldn't surprise me from here

Definitely some recovery - or at least stopping the bleeding - in the last round of Flash updates at T-1. Comps to ATSV declined, but that was vs a >90% RT review release day, and actually went UP vs Black Adam. Again, still very much following the Fast X trajectory over this last week, and while I don't think those comps values will very, that pace profile gives some hope not only for a solid walk-up Thursday coming in closer to $10M than $9M, but also for the IM not crashing as the walk-up rate should continue in the weekend

 

The $9.7M average shown (sans outlier Philly) is probably close to where things currently stand [Hopefully @ZackM drops off some Alpha numbers to help confirm overall trend is the same], with room to improve slightly up to the finish

 

 

Let's just say I'm liking my Flash contest guess 😎

[RamblinRed]

For those that track this, have the weekend sales picked up for Flash at all, or is it still pretty anemic?