The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

43 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-0	Jax	6	12	52	262	1,104	23.73%
		Phx	7	16	55	183	1,490	12.28%
		Ral	5	10	28	136	848	16.04%
	Total		18	38	135	581	3,442	16.88%
No Feelings	T-0	Jax	5	19	72	126	1,567	8.04%
		Phx	7	30	67	147	2,568	5.72%
		Ral	7	27	82	168	2,756	6.10%
	Total		19	76	221	441	6,891	6.40%

 

Asteroid City T-0 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.648x (2.32m)

 - The Menu - 2.12x (1.91m)

 - Violent Night - 2.18x (2.4m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.515x (1.89m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 2.22x (1.41m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.81m 

New model prediction - 1.82m

 

No Hard Feelings T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.768x (884k)

 - Violent Night - .831x (914k)

 - 80 for Brady - .757x (568k)

 - Lost City - .322x (805k)

 - A Man Called Otto - .844x (536k)

 - The Menu - .807x (726k)

 

Size adjusted average - 732k

New model prediction - 721k

 

I made a couple adjustments to my growth model for finding comps.  

 

No Hard Feelings - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Otto - .844x (536k)

 - Violent Night - .831x (914k)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.242x (931k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .895x (1.07m)

 - Forever Purge - .995x (1.32m)

 - Prey for the Devil - 1.59x (1.05m)

 - Massive Talent - .84x (588k)

 

Size adjusted average - 875k

 

Asteroid City - Similar growth pattern comps

 - House of Gucci - 1.28x (1.66m)

 - Candyman - 1.124x (2.14m)

 - One Piece - .625x (1.06m)

 - Suzume - 1.442x (980k)

 - RRR - .408x (1.41m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

For my semi-final predictions (before 1hr check) I'll go with 850k for No Hard Feelings (excluding EA) and 1.6m for Asteroid City.  Looking at other areas makes me think these will be pretty far off, but I'm only going off how my regions are selling.

Curious about your methodology here for these growth rate comps. For NHF, sales doubled from last update, and are up ~9x from Fri morn (your T-6), which to me suggests it would approximately double again by final. Around 900 in final sales should comp out to much higher than ~$1M in preview value, no? Would think the current 441 total would be approaching $1M without another update

 

EDIT - I think you may have accidentally compared T-0 for NHF to T-1hr (final) for the comps?

Edited June 22, 2023 by M37

[ZackM]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:34 AM, ZackM said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	29	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	4,055	0	0	0	0
Seats Sold	1,538	1,364	1,247	934	1,189
6/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	422	2,503	39,637	508,690	7.79%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	7	15	36
ATP	Gross
$18.60	$737,248

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	7	29	0	0	0
Seats Added	1,815	4,055	0	0	0
Seats Sold	1,761	1,538	1,364	1,247	934
6/21/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	423	2,510	41,398	510,505	8.11%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	6	16	37
ATP	Gross
$18.55	$767,933

[Liiviig 1998]

Those numbers for Barbie are huge at least for the first day.

 

Don't know how it will behave  though or how front loaded it will be 

[katnisscinnaplex]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Curious about your methodology here for these growth rate comps. For NHF, sales doubled from last update, and are up ~9x from Fri morn (your T-6), which to me suggests it would approximately double again by final. Around 900 in final sales should comp out to much higher than ~$1M in preview value, no? Would think the current 441 total would be approaching $1M without another update

 

EDIT - I think you may have accidentally compared T-0 for NHF to T-1hr (final) for the comps?

Ugh, I used new sales instead of totals for NHF.  I'll make a new post and fix the old one.  Thanks for letting me know

[katnisscinnaplex]

51 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-0	Jax	6	12	52	262	1,104	23.73%
		Phx	7	16	55	183	1,490	12.28%
		Ral	5	10	28	136	848	16.04%
	Total		18	38	135	581	3,442	16.88%
No Feelings	T-0	Jax	5	19	72	126	1,567	8.04%
		Phx	7	30	67	147	2,568	5.72%
		Ral	7	27	82	168	2,756	6.10%
	Total		19	76	221	441	6,891	6.40%

 

Asteroid City T-0 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.648x (2.32m)

 - The Menu - 2.12x (1.91m)

 - Violent Night - 2.18x (2.4m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.515x (1.89m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 2.22x (1.41m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.81m 

New model prediction - 1.82m

 

No Hard Feelings T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.528x (1.764m)

 - Violent Night - 1.658x (1.824m)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.51x (1.132)

 - Lost City - .643x (1.607m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.683x (1.07m)

 - The Menu - 1.609x (1.45m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.41m

New model prediction - 1.77m

 

I made a couple adjustments to my growth model for finding comps.  

 

No Hard Feelings - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Pope's Exorcist - 2.172x (1.85m)

 - Death on the Nile - 1.305x (1.44m)

 - Northman - .803x (1.08m)

 - Encanto - .976x (1.46m)

 - West Side Story - 1.505x (1.2m)

 - The Menu (Total) - 1.058x (1.058m)

 - House of Gucci - .971x (1.263m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.22m

 

Asteroid City - Similar growth pattern comps

 - House of Gucci - 1.28x (1.66m)

 - Candyman - 1.124x (2.14m)

 - One Piece - .625x (1.06m)

 - Suzume - 1.442x (980k)

 - RRR - .408x (1.41m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

For my semi-final predictions (before 1hr check) I'll go with 1.45m for No Hard Feelings (excluding EA) and 1.6m for Asteroid City.  Looking at other areas makes me think these will be pretty far off, but I'm only going off how my regions are selling.

Updated comps due to entry error

 

No Hard Feelings T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.528x (1.764m)

 - Violent Night - 1.658x (1.824m)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.51x (1.132)

 - Lost City - .643x (1.607m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.683x (1.07m)

 - The Menu - 1.609x (1.45m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.41m

New model prediction - 1.77m

 

No Hard Feelings - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Pope's Exorcist - 2.172x (1.85m)

 - Death on the Nile - 1.305x (1.44m)

 - Northman - .803x (1.08m)

 - Encanto - .976x (1.46m)

 - West Side Story - 1.505x (1.2m)

 - The Menu (Total) - 1.058x (1.058m)

 - House of Gucci - .971x (1.263m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.22m

 

For my semi-final predictions (before 1hr check) I'll go with 1.45m for No Hard Feelings (excluding EA)

[Flopped]

I could see Barbie having a Fault in Our Stars (but with bigger #s) type run leg-wise. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

I could see Barbie having a Fault in Our Stars (but with bigger #s) type run leg-wise. 

Gerwig is way stronger director. I am expecting very high ratings. Not sure Fault will be a great comp. 

[Eric Prime]

So like...is No Hard Feelings gunning for 20M+ now? Like I'm seeing stuff around 1.7M from people here, and there's no reason for this not to be frontloaded. Would be fun to see this be the #1 victor after all.

[titanic2187]

I think probably need to keep everyone's expectation on Barbie in check after very good presale. Afterall, Barbie is actionless romantic comedy, unlike the Lost City which you still have thrilling action to sell the movie to wider crowd beyond the core target audience. That will definitely put a limit to your sky. I mean, when was last time an actionless drama become a mega-hit? That probably is Joker in 2019.

 

Also, it is nice to see Barbie to make a splash in a standard hall. Movies has been insanely skewing PLF post-Covid. Barbie breaking out in non-PLF certainly will put lesser restrain on both Oppen and MI7. This is good for overall market as every type of hall are attracting crowd.    

 

[Mulder]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

I think probably need to keep everyone's expectation on Barbie in check after very good presale. Afterall, Barbie is actionless romantic comedy, unlike the Lost City which you still have thrilling action to sell the movie to wider crowd beyond the core target audience. That will definitely put a limit to your sky. I mean, when was last time an actionless drama become a mega-hit? That probably is Joker in 2019.

 

Also, it is nice to see Barbie to make a splash in a standard hall. Movies has been insanely skewing PLF post-Covid. Barbie breaking out in non-PLF certainly will put lesser restrain on both Oppen and MI7. This is good for overall market as every type of hall are attracting crowd.    

 

I agree we need to see more to Barbie but this reasoning doesn't make sense to me. You don't 'need' action to breakout. If the movie's just fun and engaging and gives people what the trailers are selling (A somewhat meta tongue-in-cheek comedy/analysis of Barbie as a brand) then yeah it'll do well.

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

So like...is No Hard Feelings gunning for 20M+ now? Like I'm seeing stuff around 1.7M from people here, and there's no reason for this not to be frontloaded. Would be fun to see this be the #1 victor after all.

I feel like 10x has kind of been the post-pandemic “default” (even for small preview stuff)… in schooltime. In summer I would guess maybe 8-9x? Thinking 1.5-> 13 or so still hit could go to high teens

Edited June 22, 2023 by LegionGPT

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I agree we need to see more to Barbie but this reasoning doesn't make sense to me. You don't 'need' action to breakout. If the movie's just fun and engaging and gives people what the trailers are selling (A somewhat meta tongue-in-cheek comedy/analysis of Barbie as a brand) then yeah it'll do well.

Problem is statistically the movie that making big money (regardless of their cost) is heavily skewing action-packed spectacle, even if that means a bunch of them are just lazy CGI fare. And this is especially true if you are an live action film. Action sells, that isn't even a reasoning, that is correlate closely to size of the BO.   

[GOGODanca]

what are you guys expectations for insidious 5 ow?

[Mulder]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Problem is statistically the movie that making big money (regardless of their cost) is heavily skewing action-packed spectacle, even if that means a bunch of them are just lazy CGI fare. And this is especially true if you are an live action film. Action sells, that isn't even a reasoning, that is correlate closely to size of the BO.   

I'm not saying it doesn't, but to pretend action is the only thing which does or can is just kind of silly imo.

[titanic2187]

Just now, Mulder said:

I'm not saying it doesn't, but to pretend action is the only thing which does or can is just kind of silly imo.

It is not silly when it is backed by statistic, completely scientific. And it is never a harmful thing to keep people expectation realistic. 

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is not silly when it is backed by statistic, completely scientific. And it is never a harmful thing to keep people expectation realistic. 

Expectations isn’t realistic tho? Some people talk like Barbie fans are expecting 200M OW or something but honestly at least on this forum most people are talking about 80-100M, which is reasonable based on first day of presales 

 

Of course it needs to keep good pace, need good reviews, so it’s definitely very open to change, but it seems reasonable

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is not silly when it is backed by statistic, completely scientific. And it is never a harmful thing to keep people expectation realistic. 

Somehow I feel like every single time I see someone talk about “keeping expectations realistic” they mean “keeping expectations low” when those are in fact two totally different things from each other.

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

No Hard Feelings

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
101	504	16402	3.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

125

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Excellent pace. Thinking mid teens for OW ~$15M

Unofficial comp ~$1.5M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

No Hard Feelings

 

THURSDAY

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
102	647	16554	3.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 1:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

143

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

mid teens for OW 

 

 Comp $1.6M previews

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

ASTEROID CITY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
42	416	6016	6.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Growth has definitely stalled for the past few days 

 

Comp $1.3M previews 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

ASTEROID CITY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
42	552	6016	9.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

109

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Show count is really low which will probably depress preview numbers by a bit

 

Comp $1.2M previews