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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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reddevil19 Box Office Gold

reddevil19

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Fast X already beat Guardians OS though

Yes yes darling, keep reading. I mentioned I meant WW, just didn't bother elaborating that pretty much the whole of the rest of the summer slot would need huge OS performances in order to beat GOTG3 WW and that isn't looking likely.

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted (edited)

I legit. think Marvel films are their own beast and would be curious to see presale comps for Flash and Indiana Jones against only non-marvel tentpoles. Avatar, Fast X, Black Adam, Shazam, Transformers Jurassic World, Top Gun, etc. All are preexisting IP with existing fanbases so the dynamic is highly relevant. 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Asteroid City T-9 Jax 6 9 63 63 875 7.20%
    Phx 4 8 26 26 564 4.61%
    Ral 5 10 20 20 848 2.36%
  Total   15 27 109 109 2,287 4.77%
Blackening T-2 Jax 5 13 0 8 1,060 0.75%
    Phx 6 14 7 29 1,584 1.83%
    Ral 6 14 0 11 802 1.37%
  Total   17 41 7 48 3,446 1.39%
Blackening (EA) T-1 Jax 4 4 0 73 357 20.45%
    Phx 3 3 3 75 210 35.71%
    Ral 6 6 7 43 655 6.56%
  Total   13 13 10 191 1,222 15.63%
Elemental T-2 Jax 5 39 25 109 4,734 2.30%
    Phx 6 44 35 144 5,325 2.70%
    Ral 8 39 15 113 4,743 2.38%
  Total   19 122 75 366 14,802 2.47%
Flash T-2 Jax 6 65 97 742 10,144 7.31%
    Phx 6 54 91 854 9,273 9.21%
    Ral 8 63 102 703 8,688 8.09%
  Total   20 182 290 2,299 28,105 8.18%
Indiana Jones T-16 Jax 6 64 11 239 10,205 2.34%
    Phx 6 43 6 142 8,309 1.71%
    Ral 8 53 -2 251 7,972 3.15%
  Total   20 160 15 632 26,486 2.39%
No Feelings T-9 Jax 5 15 1 1 1,284 0.08%
    Phx 6 18 7 7 1,722 0.41%
    Ral 6 17 6 6 1,568 0.38%
  Total   17 50 14 14 4,574 0.31%
No Feelings (EA) T-4 Jax 2 2 4 4 134 2.99%
    Phx 1 1 0 0 71 0.00%
  Total   3 3 4 4 205 1.95%
Oppenheimer T-37 Jax 6 23 3 122 4,698 2.60%
    Phx 6 26 2 112 4,969 2.25%
    Ral 8 22 2 109 2,837 3.84%
  Total   20 71 7 343 12,504 2.74%

 

Flash T-2 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.097x (9.66m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.22x (10.93m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.107x (8.75m)

 - F9 - 1.329x (9.44m)

 - Eternals - .762x (7.24m)

 - Black Adam - 1.235x (9.39m)

 - Morbius - 1.62x (9.24m)

 

I'm getting a bad feeling about this... charts to come.

 

Blackening T-2 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .471x (565m)

 - Men - .511x (216k)

 - Firestarter - .539x (202k)

 - Night House - 2x (520k)

 - Smile - missed

 - Boogeyman - .432x (432k)

 - Forever Purge - .471x (626k)

 - Popes Exorcist - .522x (443k)

 - X - .539x (237k)

 

Blackening + EA T-2 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .533x (1.6m)

 - Smile + EA - missed

 - The Menu + EA - .754x (754k)

 - Boogeyman + EA - 1.671x (1.84m)

 

Elemental T-2 comps

 - Lightyear - .401x (1.96m)

 - Strange World - 6.1x (4.88m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.51x (2.27m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.38x (2.72m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.524x (3.307m)

 - Super Pets - 1.726x (3.8m)

 

The new model is pointing to ~2.3m for this one.

 

Asteroid City T-9 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .741x (1.48m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.633x (1.82m)

 - The Menu - 1.313x (1.31m)

 - Violent Night - 1.514x (1.67m)

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-9 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .6x (300k)

 - Violent Night - .25x (275k)

 - 80 for Brady Total - .097x (124k)

 - Lost City Total - .089x (288k)

 

Indiana Jones T-16 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .329x (5.59m)

 - F9 - 1.254x (8.9m)

 - JW3 - .333x (5.9m)

 - NTTD - 1.94x (10.08m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .405x (5.95m)

 

Oppenheimer T-37 comps

 - JW3 - .355x (6.29m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Asteroid City T-8 Jax 6 9 10 73 875 8.34%
    Phx 4 8 12 38 564 6.74%
    Ral 5 10 2 22 848 2.59%
  Total   15 27 24 133 2,287 5.82%
Blackening T-1 Jax 5 13 23 31 1,060 2.92%
    Phx 7 16 5 34 1,646 2.07%
    Ral 6 14 5 16 802 2.00%
  Total   18 43 33 81 3,508 2.31%
Blackening (EA) T-0 Jax 4 4 14 87 357 24.37%
    Phx 3 3 9 84 210 40.00%
    Ral 6 6 8 51 655 7.79%
  Total   13 13 31 222 1,222 18.17%
Elemental T-1 Jax 5 39 31 140 4,734 2.96%
    Phx 7 49 38 182 5,897 3.09%
    Ral 8 39 45 158 4,743 3.33%
  Total   20 127 114 480 15,374 3.12%
Flash T-1 Jax 6 68 144 886 10,428 8.50%
    Phx 7 59 204 1,058 9,670 10.94%
    Ral 8 63 127 830 8,688 9.55%
  Total   21 190 475 2,774 28,786 9.64%
Indiana Jones T-15 Jax 6 64 4 243 10,205 2.38%
    Phx 6 43 13 155 8,309 1.87%
    Ral 8 53 9 260 7,972 3.26%
  Total   20 160 26 658 26,486 2.48%
No Feelings T-8 Jax 5 15 2 3 1,284 0.23%
    Phx 6 18 0 7 1,722 0.41%
    Ral 6 17 2 8 1,568 0.51%
  Total   17 50 4 18 4,574 0.39%
No Feelings (EA) T-3 Jax 2 2 2 6 134 4.48%
    Phx 1 1 4 4 71 5.63%
  Total   3 3 6 10 205 4.88%
Oppenheimer T-36 Jax 6 23 2 124 4,698 2.64%
    Phx 6 26 5 117 4,969 2.35%
    Ral 8 22 2 111 2,837 3.91%
  Total   20 71 9 352 12,504 2.82%

 

Flash T-1 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.133x (9.97m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.33x (11.34m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.98x (8.22m)

 - F9 - 1.272x (9.03m)

 - Eternals - .812x (7.71m)

 - Black Adam - 1.215x (9.23m)

 - Morbius - 1.6x (9.13m)

 

For @Into the Legion-Verse I'll start adding the "size adjusted averages".  Flash - $8.56m

New model is predicting 7.91m previews.  I'm still thinking in the 9m range personally.

 

Blackening T-1 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .54x (648k)

 - Men - .628x (266k)

 - Firestarter - .73x (274k)

 - Night House - 2.893x (752k)

 - Smile - .466x (791k)

 - Boogeyman - .723x (723k)

 - Forever Purge - .6x (798k)

 - Popes Exorcist - missed

 - X - .596x (262k)

 

Size adjusted average - 534k

 

Blackening + EA T-1 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .521x (1.56m)

 - Smile + EA - .765x (1.53m)

 - The Menu + EA - .851x (851k)

 - Boogeyman + EA - 1.955x (2.15m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

Elemental T-1 comps

 - Lightyear - .407x (1.99m)

 - Strange World - 5.106x (4.085m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.55x (2.32m)

 - Paws of Fury - 4.85x (2.45m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.743x (3.59m)

 - Super Pets - 1.622x (3.57m)

 - Bad Guys - 3.158x (3.63m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.56m

The new model is pointing to ~2.25m for this one.

 

Asteroid City T-8 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .887x (1.77m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.586x (2.29m)

 - The Menu - 1.291x (1.16m)

 - Violent Night - 1.602x (1.76m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.487m

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .966x (483k)

 - Violent Night - .337x (371k)

 - 80 for Brady Total - .133x (169k)

 - Lost City Total - .135x (440k)

 

Size adjusted average - 496k

 

Indiana Jones T-15 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .327x (5.56m)

 - F9 - 1.216x (8.64m)

 - JW3 - .338x (5.98m)

 - NTTD - 1.86x (9.67m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .406x (5.97m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.006x (8.95m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.261x (9.38m)

 

Size adjusted average - 8.02m

 

Oppenheimer T-36 comps

 - JW3 - missed

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Based on my Denver theaters, looks like Regal is allowing discount day for MI7 previews. Gonna be fun for comps

It would make it impossible to project the movie. We cannot even get the actual ticket price for MTC1 as you have to sign into to the site to get the discount. We would need to heavily discount preview for sure. 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It would make it impossible to project the movie. We cannot even get the actual ticket price for MTC1 as you have to sign into to the site to get the discount. We would need to heavily discount preview for sure. 

 

For the record, my Cinemarks are not having discount day for MI7, and I'd imagine that's chain wide.

They are also having no discount day for July 4th.

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It would make it impossible to project the movie. We cannot even get the actual ticket price for MTC1 as you have to sign into to the site to get the discount. We would need to heavily discount preview for sure. 

Some cinemas do discount directly right? I was checking few days back, in NYC tix on other day were $15+ while TUE $9

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I legit. think Marvel films are their own beast and would be curious to see presale comps for Flash and Indiana Jones against only non-marvel tentpoles. Avatar, Fast X, Black Adam, Shazam, Transformers Jurassic World, Top Gun, etc. All are preexisting IP with existing fanbases so the dynamic is highly relevant. 

Considering the most recent average for Flash against GOTG3 is like $7.5M for Thursday, and the overwhelming majority of discussion is in the roughly $8.5-$10.5M range, the "Marvel films are their own beast" factor is already being taken into account, in that no one is leaning on those numbers to estimate

 

Also, Avatar and to some degree TGM are not great comps for most movies, because they didn't have a great final week compared to presales prior to that point

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
Spoiler

 

18 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Asteroid City T-8 Jax 6 9 10 73 875 8.34%
    Phx 4 8 12 38 564 6.74%
    Ral 5 10 2 22 848 2.59%
  Total   15 27 24 133 2,287 5.82%
Blackening T-1 Jax 5 13 23 31 1,060 2.92%
    Phx 7 16 5 34 1,646 2.07%
    Ral 6 14 5 16 802 2.00%
  Total   18 43 33 81 3,508 2.31%
Blackening (EA) T-0 Jax 4 4 14 87 357 24.37%
    Phx 3 3 9 84 210 40.00%
    Ral 6 6 8 51 655 7.79%
  Total   13 13 31 222 1,222 18.17%
Elemental T-1 Jax 5 39 31 140 4,734 2.96%
    Phx 7 49 38 182 5,897 3.09%
    Ral 8 39 45 158 4,743 3.33%
  Total   20 127 114 480 15,374 3.12%
Flash T-1 Jax 6 68 144 886 10,428 8.50%
    Phx 7 59 204 1,058 9,670 10.94%
    Ral 8 63 127 830 8,688 9.55%
  Total   21 190 475 2,774 28,786 9.64%
Indiana Jones T-15 Jax 6 64 4 243 10,205 2.38%
    Phx 6 43 13 155 8,309 1.87%
    Ral 8 53 9 260 7,972 3.26%
  Total   20 160 26 658 26,486 2.48%
No Feelings T-8 Jax 5 15 2 3 1,284 0.23%
    Phx 6 18 0 7 1,722 0.41%
    Ral 6 17 2 8 1,568 0.51%
  Total   17 50 4 18 4,574 0.39%
No Feelings (EA) T-3 Jax 2 2 2 6 134 4.48%
    Phx 1 1 4 4 71 5.63%
  Total   3 3 6 10 205 4.88%
Oppenheimer T-36 Jax 6 23 2 124 4,698 2.64%
    Phx 6 26 5 117 4,969 2.35%
    Ral 8 22 2 111 2,837 3.91%
  Total   20 71 9 352 12,504 2.82%

 

Flash T-1 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.133x (9.97m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.33x (11.34m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.98x (8.22m)

 - F9 - 1.272x (9.03m)

 - Eternals - .812x (7.71m)

 - Black Adam - 1.215x (9.23m)

 - Morbius - 1.6x (9.13m)

 

For @Into the Legion-Verse I'll start adding the "size adjusted averages".  Flash - $8.56m

New model is predicting 7.91m previews.  I'm still thinking in the 9m range personally.

 

Blackening T-1 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .54x (648k)

 - Men - .628x (266k)

 - Firestarter - .73x (274k)

 - Night House - 2.893x (752k)

 - Smile - .466x (791k)

 - Boogeyman - .723x (723k)

 - Forever Purge - .6x (798k)

 - Popes Exorcist - missed

 - X - .596x (262k)

 

Size adjusted average - 534k

 

Blackening + EA T-1 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .521x (1.56m)

 - Smile + EA - .765x (1.53m)

 - The Menu + EA - .851x (851k)

 - Boogeyman + EA - 1.955x (2.15m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

Elemental T-1 comps

 - Lightyear - .407x (1.99m)

 - Strange World - 5.106x (4.085m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.55x (2.32m)

 - Paws of Fury - 4.85x (2.45m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.743x (3.59m)

 - Super Pets - 1.622x (3.57m)

 - Bad Guys - 3.158x (3.63m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.56m

The new model is pointing to ~2.25m for this one.

 

Asteroid City T-8 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .887x (1.77m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.586x (2.29m)

 - The Menu - 1.291x (1.16m)

 - Violent Night - 1.602x (1.76m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.487m

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .966x (483k)

 - Violent Night - .337x (371k)

 - 80 for Brady Total - .133x (169k)

 - Lost City Total - .135x (440k)

 

Size adjusted average - 496k

 

Indiana Jones T-15 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .327x (5.56m)

 - F9 - 1.216x (8.64m)

 - JW3 - .338x (5.98m)

 - NTTD - 1.86x (9.67m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .406x (5.97m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.006x (8.95m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.261x (9.38m)

 

Size adjusted average - 8.02m

 

Oppenheimer T-36 comps

 - JW3 - missed

 

 

Hmm those actually look nicer than I expected (in the sense that over like 5-6 movies no clearly poor result). Clearly some information loss is inevitable when condensing multiple nums into a single num and the process used isn’t perfect or anything but I do think it should have some predictive value and make it easier to see day to day movement at a glance (compared to a  day where say 4 comps move up and 3 down etc).

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ThomasNicole Blockbuster

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, YSLDC said:

It'll be funny if The Flash pulls something like a 9M previews, doom and gloom, and then it exploded with 8.5 IM

That would be still 76M only, like many said, 75M is pretty much best case scenario atp and that’s still bad. 
 

Let’s just hope July will be better and that Indy can avoid this same path (since this one does have room to be very walkup heavy)

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

Lol guys I’m getting real concerned about Flash’s IM this weekend.

 

Thursday sales at my locals are pretty solid (I would say 9-10M possible). Then Friday has ZERO tickets sold at one theatre, 2 tix at another, and a handful at another (but given how they are all seated together I think it’s one group). Saturday has ZERO at two theatres and a decent amount at a third. And Sunday has 1 ticket sold across all 3 :lol: 

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Lol guys I’m getting real concerned about Flash’s IM this weekend.

 

Thursday sales at my locals are pretty solid (I would say 9-10M possible). Then Friday has ZERO tickets sold at one theatre, 2 tix at another, and a handful at another (but given how they are all seated together I think it’s one group). Saturday has ZERO at two theatres and a decent amount at a third. And Sunday has 1 ticket sold across all 3 :lol: 

Same near me. Pretty good for Thursday but the rest of the weekend (PLF screens aside) *crickets* for the most part.

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XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Lol guys I’m getting real concerned about Flash’s IM this weekend.

 

Thursday sales at my locals are pretty solid (I would say 9-10M possible). Then Friday has ZERO tickets sold at one theatre, 2 tix at another, and a handful at another (but given how they are all seated together I think it’s one group). Saturday has ZERO at two theatres and a decent amount at a third. And Sunday has 1 ticket sold across all 3 :lol: 


That’s bleak for sure, but do you have anything comparable to bounce the info against? I suppose we better hope that walkups are decent because presales through the weekend right now seem to be point sub-$50M….

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