The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

Bros, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 19 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 3 (2 showtimes, normal business - first it said the theaters is closed due to the hurricane)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 112 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 123 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 264.

Up 23% since yesterday.
Comps (both counted on Thursday for Thursday): TLC had 745 sold tickets

and Bob's Burgers had 477.

 

Bros, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 34 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 7 (showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 19 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 127 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 148 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 334.

Up 25% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Massive Talent had 440 sold tickets,

The Green Knight had 498 sold tickets,

WSS had 613 sold tickets,

TLC had 695 sold tickets,

Bob's Burgers had 487 sold tickets

and Easter Sunday had 297 sold tickets.

So around 5M OW IMO. Could be better if the walk-ups surprise, Idk.
 

Smile, counted today at 12pm EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 118 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 44 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 49 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 63 (2 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 467.

Up good 53% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): The Forever Purge had 241 sold tickets = x1.75 = 2.3M from previews,

Beast 263,

The Invitation 218 = x2.14 = 1.7M,
Barbarian 289 = x1.61 = 1.4M
The Invisible Man had 927

and Halloween Kills had 1.314.

I guess it will have better walk-ups than Barbarian and The Invitation so maybe 2M+?

 

Smile, counted today at 12pm EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 158 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 98 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 27 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 92 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 147 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 549.

Up ok 38% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Old had 500 sold tickets,

The Invitation 204,

Beast 248,

Malignant 237,

The Invisible Man 894,

Barbarian 249

and HK had 1.575.

Doesn't look frontloaded. It confuses me a bit that its presales seems to be muted in some regions but I can't complain. The presales in my theaters are quite good, the jumps till today were decent and the reviews and WOM should help too so I'm optimistic and say it gets 20M OW.

Edited September 29, 2022 by el sid

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

All 3pm starts in my area. 

Im just seeing 7pm in SW Ontario/Toronto

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Im just seeing 7pm in SW Ontario/Toronto

 

For Smile or Black Adam?

[Eric Loves Rey]

17 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

Bros Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	89	4131	2.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.293x of Free Guy T-1 (644K)

0.424x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (339K)

0.337x of West Side Story T-1 (270K)

0.848x of Marry Me T-1 (445K)

0.395x of Dog T-1 (498K)

0.115x of The Lost City T-1 (374K)

0.324x of Unbearable Weight T-1 (270K)

0.121x of Elvis T-1 (423K)

0.270x of Crawdads T-1 (622K)

2.023x of Easter Sunday T-1 (1.01M)

Bros Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	164	4131	2.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 75

 

Comp

0.234x of Free Guy (515K)

0.524x of Dear Evan Hansen (419K)

0.425x of West Side Story (340K

1.079x of Marry Me (566K)

0.594x of Dog (749K)

0.160x of The Lost City (521K)

0.394x of Unbearable Weight (329K)

0.153x of Elvis (534K)

0.285x of Crawdads (656K)

1.843x of Easter Sunday (921K)

[Tinalera]

40 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

For Smile or Black Adam?

Whoops LOL Black Adam (but Smile doesn't have any 3pm starts either I don't think)

Edited September 29, 2022 by Tinalera

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake Valley preview night report for Smile and Bros. Sugarhouse Cinemark (SLC), Cinemark XD Draper, Cinemark XD Farmington.

 

Smile (nine showings)

Sugarhouse 30

Draper 22

Farmington 45

Total tix sold 97

Comps:

Halloween Kills (Sugarhouse) .337 = $1.62M

Black Phone (Sugarhouse) 100% = 3.2M

NOPE (all three theaters) .322 = 2.06M

 

Bros (seven showings)

Sugarhouse 42

Draper ZERO

Farmington 1

Total tix sold 43

Comps:

Lost City (Sugarhouse) .45 = $1.48M

Elvis (Sugarhouse) .44 = 1.55M

 

Smile has been a slow but steady performer and is looking equally strong over all three theaters. With good reviews and WOM, and the @Krissykins seal of approval, I'm expecting this to continue to build over the weekend and wind up somewhere in the $18-20M range. Call it $1.8/19, because why not $19 again?

 

Bros is a tale of two worlds. It's having a mini-breakout, at least relative to its wobbly start, in liberal Salt Lake, but is D.O.A. in the more conservative suburbs. Don't really have any good rom-com comparisons, and I don't have any comps with this wide a demographic divide. So I'm not even going to hazard a prediction. But I'd be shocked if Bros makes it to double digits.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by A Star is Delayed

[Menor the Destroyer]

55 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Whoops LOL Black Adam (but Smile doesn't have any 3pm starts either I don't think)

Huh, that's interesting. I wonder why Toronto theaters wouldn't be doing 3pm for Black Adam. 

[cax16]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Huh, that's interesting. I wonder why Toronto theaters wouldn't be doing 3pm for Black Adam. 

Life’s been super busy so I haven’t been able to keep up with this thread but I just got my tickets for preview night for black adam and my theatre has showtimes at 4:30pm.

[Eric Loves Rey]

19 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

Smile Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	567	5982	9.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 67

 

Comp

3.805x of The Forever Purge T-1 (5.06M)

2.215x of Escape Room 2 T-1 (2.66M)

2.156x of Old T-1 (3.23M)

1.909x of Don't Breathe 2 T-1 (1.84M)

0.322x of Halloween Kills T-1 (1.56M)

0.406x of Scream T-1 (1.42M)

0.771x of The Black Phone T-1 (2.31M)

 

Remember the day prior had Early Access shows.

Smile Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	901	5982	15.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 334

 

Comp

1.231x of The Forever Purge (1.64M)

1.559x of Escape Room 2 (1.87M)

1.055x of Old (1.58M)

0.879x of Don't Breathe 2 (848K)

0.314x of Halloween Kills (1.52M)

0.414x of Scream (1.45M)

0.677x of The Black Phone (2.03M)

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Huh, that's interesting. I wonder why Toronto theaters wouldn't be doing 3pm for Black Adam. 

Looking now at showtimes, I stand slightly corrected in Im seeing 3:30-430 Previews-might be a 3PM in there I have haven't checked all the theatres. Admittedly when Im doing the counts Im just clicking previews and not really paying attention to the showtimes LOL. 

 

Between finishing off Smile stuff, doing Halloween Ends, and Black Adam it just all kind of runs together lol.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

Just a reminder Im out and about this weekend, so I won't be near a computer probably till like Tues, so I won't be tracking any remainder of Smile, Halloween or Black Adam till then. Hope everyone has a great weekend!

[filmlover]

Theater counts for next weekend from The Numbers:

 

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 4,000+

Amsterdam: 2,500

TAR: 4

[motionpic05]

49 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Theater counts for next weekend from The Numbers:

 

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 4,000+

Amsterdam: 2,500

TAR: 4

Disney is definitely trying to just quietly release Amsterdam.

Those reviews are brutal.

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	397	12994	3.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 61

 

Comp

1.171x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-15 (22.68M)

5.438x of The Conjuring 3 T-15 (53.32M)

1.225x of Halloween Kills' First Two Days of Release (5.94M)

1.444x of Scream T-15 (5.05M)

Halloween Ends Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	471	13186	3.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

 

Comp

1.266x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-14 (24.52M)

5.962x of The Conjuring 3 T-14 (58.46M)

1.658x of Scream T-14 (5.8M)

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, motionpic05 said:

Disney is definitely trying to just quietly release Amsterdam.

Those reviews are brutal.

I'll be impressed if it makes much more than $25M total at this point tbh.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	336	18174	1.85%

 

Comp

0.683x of F9 T-21 (4.85M)

0.237x of Black Widow T-21 (3.13M)

2.049x of The Suicide Squad T-21 (8.4M)

1.116x of Venom 2 T-21 (12.95M)

0.307x of Eternals T-21 (2.92M)

0.093x of The Batman T-21 (2.01M)

0.449x of Top Gun 2 T-21 (8.64M)

0.241x of Jurassic World 3 T-21 (4.33M)

 

Little all over the place and these comps are obviously all subject to change. But even though it probably won't reach that high, being double The Suicide Squad with similar patterns seems very very good to me.

[Porthos]

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	21387	21813	426	1.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

426

 

Day 1 Comps    

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	239.33		178	178		0/69	11531/11709	1.52%		2352	18.11%		9.81m
SC	76.90		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5847	7.29%		6.77m
LTBC	122.41		348	348		0/127	21962/22310	1.56%		7712	5.52%		14.20m
ET	48.74		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	6.65%		4.63m
Bats	14.79		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	3.62%		3.19m
Morb	116.08		367	367		0/124	17244/17611	2.08%		3477	12.25%		6.62m
JW:D	59.58		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		10966	3.88%		10.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two days of early access only sales totaling 475 tickets, which are counted as part of the total tickets sold but not as “Day 1” sales.

 

===

 

Man, it figures that the film I come back to for tracking has rotten comps locally.  Like, I'm not really sure I have a even a single decent comp for it.  One of the big problems is that historically DC under-performs in Sacramento (at least relative to Marvel), so even using mid-range Marvel movies like Shang-Chi or Eternals is problematic, and that's before getting into the ATP hikes that began to roll out just after Eternals bowed. 

 

In fact, I wasn't planning on using any comps from before Nov last year, but, well, The Batman is a pretty rotten comp, and I highly doubt Black Adam will follow JW:D's pre-sale patterns. Which just left Morbin' Time as a sole comp.  And while that might have been fun for shits and giggles, wouldn't have made for a good comp box.

 

So instead, throw out the outliers of Batsy and LTBC/JW:D and that gives a range of about 5m to 10m which... I dunno?  Maybe?  Or if one is skeptical of the TSS and Eternals comps,  about 6m to 8m (after adjusting for a diff between Marvel and DC locally)?

 

Honestly, kiiinda like the Shang-Chi comp, but I've already harped on the dangers of comping DC and Marvel locally.  Not to mention it'll need really good reviews to match SC's run.

 

Still, if folks got better ideas (and ideally after Nov '21), I'm open to them.

[DAJK]

Bros numbers tonight across theatres I tracked seems actually pretty close with Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. Studio comedy that unfortunately just plays to a niche crowd I guess (a shame, since I liked both those movies this year). Going to guess 7M weekend or so, 20M total.

 

Smile actually performed pretty similar to The Black Phone in quite a few markets. Won't be surprised to see this make it to 20M this weekend.

[Legion Again]

Verrrry crudely BA looks like about 7, good for 50ish wknd. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Quorum Updates

Halloween Ends T-15: 54.49% Awareness, 6.61 Interest

Black Adam T-22: 52.49%, 5.94

Ticket to Paradise T-22: 29.89%, 5.21

Call Jane T-29: 17.94%, 4.77

Prey for the Devil T-29: 25.71%, 5.23

Creed III T-155: 31.09%, 5.46

 

Bros T-1: 34.78% Awareness, 4.7 Interest

Comps (All Final): Dear Evan Hansen w/ 31.52% Awareness & 4.92 Interest, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent w/ 33% & 5.04, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42, Easter Sunday w/ 26.34% & 4.64, Don't Worry Darling w/ 32.02% & 5.17

 

Final General Awareness: 28% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 26% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 82% chance of over 5M, 45% over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 28% chance of over 5M

 

The Good House T-1: 18.62% Awareness, 4.63 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Outfit w/ 15.05% Awareness & 4.97 Interest, Mr. Malcolm's List w/ 23.2% & 4.38, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris w/ 18.93% & 4.28, Vengeance w/ 18.09% & 5.55

 

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digits

General Interest: 26% chance of double-digits

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of double-digits

Original - Low Interest: 29% chance of 5M

 

Smile T-1: 43.26% Awareness, 5.92 Interest

Comps (All Final): Old w/ 34.26% Awareness & 5.62 Interest, Candyman 38.61% & 4.67, The Black Phone w/ 40% & 5.94, Nope w/ 44.26% & 6.08

 

Final General Awareness: 89% chance of double-digit opening, 83% over 20M, 69% over 30M

General Interest: 100% chance of double-digit opening, 91% over 20M, 83% over 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of double-digit opening & 20M, 75% over 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of double-digit opening, 75% over 20M, 50% chance over 30M

 

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile T-8: 32.31% Awareness, 4.87 Interest

Comps (All Final): Spirited Untamed w/ 38.66% Awareness & 5.2 Interest, Peter Rabbit 2 w/ 41.22% & 5.26, Ron's Gone Wrong w/ 26.4% & 5.05, Paws of Fury w/ 45.27% & 5.23

 

Final General Awareness: 28% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 26% chance of double-digit opening

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of double-digit opening

Animation/Family Interest: 57% chance of double-digit opening

*Note the Final number for Lyle, Lyle Crocodile is subject to change*