AMERICA CHAVEZ IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS WEEKEND THREAD | Aka carbonara civil war thread | 187.42M OW

[Taruseth]

5 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Looks like $55m+ true Friday.  $91m opening day.  

So a bit below the true Friday of Age of Ultrons. If it gets similar changes to it or NWH it would get Saturday (~56m) and Sunday (~49.5m) it would end up with an OWend of 195-198m.

Or with AEG %changes to Sat and Sun: 61.5m Sat and 51m Sun for a 203.5M Wend.

HP7-2 would only get it to 49.5m Sat and 41.7m Sun for a Wend of 182m.

 

 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Djsoke said:

Genuine question, what would a "bad" second weekend drop be? NWH fell almost 69% before its legs kicked in, so would bad news bears be a 70%+ drop?

Dropping over 50% for True-FSS. Eternals was -54%, and Black Widow was -62%, but with D+/COVID factors, while Shang-Chi was -48% even coming off of holiday weekend 

 

Penciling in $200M OW here, a typical MCU drop would be $82M+ 2nd weekend. Dropping into $70s, especially mid $70s, would be “bad”

[Cooper Legion]

 

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Dropping over 50% for True-FSS. Eternals was -54%, and Black Widow was -62%, but with D+/COVID factors, while Shang-Chi was -48% even coming off of holiday weekend 

 

Penciling in $200M OW here, a typical MCU drop would be $82M+ 2nd weekend. Dropping into $70s, especially mid $70s, would be “bad”

Reasonably big Solo MCUs in this date —

IM2: 57% true FSS drop

IM3: -54% true fss

CW: -53% 

Gotg2: -49.5%  

 

gotg2 was the smallest and had a small Mother’s Day help 2nd weekend imo. DS2 has the worst reception. In my view a 55% true FSS drop (200-> 74M) is the baseline expectation and it would take sub 70 to be “bad.”

Edited May 7, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[LeoC]

MoM is a perfect movie for Mother's day: its name is MoM and it's about a mother's love for her kids. Take your mother to DS: MoM.

[picores]

180m or 200m, doesnt matter. 400m DOM locked. 1B WW locked. In a few hours. Without China. Doctor Strange 2. Disney wins again.

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, LeoC said:

MoM is a perfect movie for Mother's day: its name is MoM and it's about a mother's love for her kids. Take your mother to DS: MoM.

Metroid: Other M 2.0

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, picores said:

180m or 200m, doesnt matter. 400m DOM locked. 1B WW locked. In a few hours. Without China. Doctor Strange 2. Disney wins again.

180 wouldn't lock 400. 190 does though.

[SupermanLego]

5 minutes ago, picores said:

180m or 200m, doesnt matter. 400m DOM locked. 1B WW locked. In a few hours. Without China. Doctor Strange 2. Disney wins again.

IS every future MCU movie now needs to be some big event type for success...

Edited May 7, 2022 by SupermanLego

[M37]

7 hours ago, Eric loves Rey said:

That is correct.

 

https://www.motionpictures.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MPA-THEME-2019.pdf

 

Hispanics/Latinos make up 18% of the US population, yet represent 21% of moviegoers and 25% of all tickets sold. Crazy to think that as Hollywood emphasizes diverse castings in their projects that there's not much in terms of Latino-led blockbusters. You have Coco, Encanto, In the Heights, the Dora movie, some Eugenio Derbez titles, the upcoming Blue Beetle...and I think that's it. Obviously the diaspora of representation is very complex, as each nation has their own cultures and values, but it's still weird.

Good stuff. Would be very interested in seeing how these demographic compositions have shifted in the post-pandemic market as compared to 2017-19 baseline. Based on BO performance, my gut tells me the groups that were previously overrepresented - Hispanic audiences and age 25-39 bin - are now standing out even more, while the more casual audiences are still “missing” (and IMO never fully come back)

 

 

[picores]

2 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

180 wouldn't lock 400. 190 does though.

 

180m locks 400m, like it or not. No competition ahead in 3 weeks.

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

IS every future MCU movie now needs to be some big event type for success...

Nah, Antman 3 or Blade will not this type of movie and its fine

[picores]

Btw, this is looking to mimic the overall numbers of Captain America. Civil War in the end, with +400m DOM, +700 OS and 1.150m WW. Is someone really underwhelmed with this numbers? 

[M37]

37 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

 

Reasonably big Solo MCUs in this date —

IM2: 57% true FSS drop

IM3: -54% true fss

CW: -53% 

Gotg2: -49.5%  

 

gotg2 was the smallest and had a small Mother’s Day help 2nd weekend imo. DS2 has the worst reception. In my view a 55% true FSS drop (200-> 74M) is the baseline expectation and it would take sub 70 to be “bad.”

Chuck out IM2, as that was still midnight previews, pushing more business to weekend, and prob IM3 because the early preview starts were still new/relatively unknown (11x IM)

 

Looking at those last two - plus IW, Endgame and even Captain Marvel - I stand by what I said. CW had the lowest OW/total gross X of any April/May MCU film since 2013. (Would accept argument that we’re seeing bigger second weekend drop in general post-COVID, so maybe that shifts expectation somewhat)

 

EDIT: Reality is, MCU of late has set a really high bar of “success” for second weekends/legs, and Strange is going to fall short of that. How many outliers does it take before it becomes the norm/expectation?

Edited May 7, 2022 by M37

[Grebacio]

12 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Nah, Antman 3 or Blade will not this type of movie and its fine

Ant Man maybe, Kang is in the movie

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

1 minute ago, picores said:

Btw, this is looking to mimic the overall numbers of Captain America. Civil War in the end, with +400m DOM, +700 OS and 1.150m WW. Is someone really underwhelmed with this numbers? 

Don't even get me started. Under 200M didn't felt like a possibility at all days ago. 

 

And now 180-190...whatever. Obviously WoM and reviews were underwhelming. The movie is more underwhelming than these numbers tbh lol

 

But I think this for the best. The MCU shouldn't keep getting away with these mediocre movies. 

 

I can't imagine Feige not realizing that Phase 4 has been a bust.

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Don't even get me started. Under 200M didn't felt like a possibility at all days ago. 

 

And now 180-190...whatever. Obviously WoM and reviews were underwhelming. The movie is more underwhelming than these numbers tbh lol

 

But I think this for the best. The MCU shouldn't keep getting away with these mediocre movies. 

 

I can't imagine Feige not realizing that Phase 4 has been a bust.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have our first true meltdown of the weekend thread.

[joe liviig]

1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

So a bit below the true Friday of Age of Ultrons. If it gets similar changes to it or NWH it would get Saturday (~56m) and Sunday (~49.5m) it would end up with an OWend of 195-198m.

Or with AEG %changes to Sat and Sun: 61.5m Sat and 51m Sun for a 203.5M Wend.

HP7-2 would only get it to 49.5m Sat and 41.7m Sun for a Wend of 182m.

 

 

AOU SAT stayed flat from true friday due to the manny/mayweather fight and then rebounded by dropping 11% on sun.

 

think it will play closer to civil war which jumped 22% from true friday and dropped 30.7% on sunday. And suprisingly it also released on the same date in 2016. which gets it to around 204m but 67m sat seems way too big So will go with lower sat but better sun drop 

 

AOU,CW,EG all dropped roughly 59% drop second weekend .

IW 55%

[Krissykins]

This has 200,000 likes on Twitter and it was only posted yesterday lol 

 

 

[fabiopazzo2]

14 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Ant Man maybe, Kang is in the movie

Yeah but Kang is not Thanos. And i will not expect an event movie

Thor is an event movie? No but will be big 
BP? Probably 

Marvels? No

Ant man? No

Blade? No

F4? No

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

I do have a lotta hope for Thor 4 tho. 

 

I now do think it's going to be bigger than Doctor Strange MoM. If it has good reviews. Something that doesn't feel like a certainty anymore in the MCU. 

 

But with MoM coming under expectations and if Thor is as good as I feel it is, I 100% believe it will be bigger.