AMERICA CHAVEZ IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS WEEKEND THREAD | Aka carbonara civil war thread | 187.42M OW

[SupermanLego]

1 minute ago, MaverickXXR said:

Disney doesn’t over-report their estimates. Domestic and international will both go up with actuals.

Just yday the reports were coming in for 260 MAX internationally and with all the slowing weekend figures its come in 5M plus higher.......hmm the international one seems too good to be true.

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

450 is a nicer number compared to 443

469 would have been really nice

[Flamengo81]

40 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Has there ever been a 5m difference between studio estimates and actuals?

 

I mean percentage terms it is a mere 2.7% but I was thinking 190m.

 

I did not like the movie at all, genuinely did not enjoy it but I still hope for good box office and theater recovery.

The Batman just did that some months ago...

[Killimano3]

Lol whys everyone so depressed. You guys do realize this movie is almost going to match the first one in its OW alone right?

[Eric Prime]

 

[grey ghost]

First off, the MCU desperately needed star power in the begining but now the IP's are strong enough to attract the GA. That's the reason something like Captain Marvel can cross 1 billion easily.

 

And casual fans don't even watch everything Marvel related. Compare the ticket sales of NWH, DS2, and Eternals. Clearly there's a big difference between the number of hardcore fans who consume everything and the casuals.

[SchumacherFTW]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

469 would have been really nice

420.69

[grey ghost]

Disney is wise to milk the Marvel cow as much as possible.

 

By the time people gets tired of the movies and shows Disney would've made over 50 billion from Marvel. Especially if you include loyalty to Disney Plus.

 

So it's clearly better to burn out than fade away like most franchises.

[SupermanLego]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

First off, the MCU desperately needed star power in the begining but now the IP's are strong enough to attract the GA. That's the reason something like Captain Marvel can cross 1 billion easily.

 

And casual fans don't even watch everything Marvel related. Compare the ticket sales of NWH, DS2, and Eternals. Clearly there's a big difference between the number of hardcore fans who consume everything and the casuals.

CM was helped by Endgame. Continuity helped that movie.....not the character. 

[ringedmortality]

What's the chance Doctor Strange is the MCU's lowest grossing movie of the year.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

What's the chance Doctor Strange is the MCU's lowest grossing movie of the year.

Pretty good domestically.

[ThomasNicole]

35 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I know there's a very strict ban on talking about it and we are obligated to pretend it is totally over and doesn't exist or have any impact anymore, but like 25 people I know have COVID right now and positivity rates are up over 20 percent in many major urban areas including here. NWH's triumph over Omicron seems to have made people forget that these kind of spikes have mattered for every single other movie in the past 14 months!

I'm expecting things to be pretty bad by the time JW drops.

 

I don't know if it will have much impact since nothing will close and people overall doesn't care anymore that much, but it's definitely not over and clearly there's a wave tendency appearing.

[LonePirate]

The lack of competition the next couple of weeks  should help it clear $500M domestically before it is done; but it's not coming close to a 3x domestically. There is nothing about the film to warrant repeat viewings or persuade people on the fence to see it. It will be on Disney+ by July 4th most likely which is fine.

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

CM was helped by Endgame. Continuity helped that movie.....not the character. 

 

1 billion for essentially a spin off will always be impressive.

 

There was an Endgame bump but my point is the MCU is a strong enough IP to not need star power any more.

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm expecting things to be pretty bad by the time JW drops.

 

I don't know if it will have much impact since nothing will close and people overall doesn't care anymore that much, but it's definitely not over and clearly there's a wave tendency appearing.

I worry more about Top Gun given the audience and the fact that the wave will be peaking without the clarity on hospitalitization/death rate that we will have by JW. People finally caught up to my huge breakout prediction I've been making all year too. I never get to look smart

[grim22]

41 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I know there's a very strict ban on talking about it and we are obligated to pretend it is totally over and doesn't exist or have any impact anymore, but like 25 people I know have COVID right now and positivity rates are up over 20 percent in many major urban areas including here. NWH's triumph over Omicron seems to have made people forget that these kind of spikes have mattered for every single other movie in the past 14 months!

 

The thing about Covid waves is that unless there's deaths accompanying them, people won't care. The WHCD and Gridiron both had a lot of cases, but due to everyone being triple vaxxed, not a lot of hospitalizations or deaths. If the unvaxxed start getting it and dying again, that will cause big headlines.

 

The vaccines and Paxlovid are both great innovations and we should be thankful. I read the book "The vaccine" which went into the development process with the actual people who developed it, very good book, would recommend.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I worry more about Top Gun given the audience and the fact that the wave will be peaking without the clarity on hospitalitization/death rate that we will have by JW. People finally caught up to my huge breakout prediction I've been making all year too. I never get to look smart

I think presales are too big to not surpass the overall predictions people made for TG2 these past months. 

 

And i don't know, most people won't care and i think the more worried audience will just wait to see on the 2nd week in more empty theaters, but they won't give up watching since these extreme attittudes seems way behind us.

 

At least i worry about safety and i'm still going to theaters, just put my mask that is highly effective and wait for an more empty screening just to be sure, i'm seeing DS2 next week because of that and probably gonna do the same with TG2 and JWD

 

[Valonqar]

23 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

CM was helped by Endgame. Continuity helped that movie.....not the character. 

 

And DS2 was helped by NWH. he was in it, introduced multiverse, and was seen by the largest audience since Endgame. Continuity FTW. If that doesn't bump your movie I don't know what does. The only difference is that some of us expected a bump to over 200M OW but it looks like it will be a bump to CW/AoU OW. Which is huge coming from first DS OW.

Edited May 8, 2022 by Valonqar

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

18 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

What's the chance Doctor Strange is the MCU's lowest grossing movie of the year.

 

90% chance domestically, 70% chance worldwide. Currently thinking....

Multiverse of Madness = $435M DOM -- $600M OS

Love & Thunder = $475M DOM -- $700M OS

Wakanda Forever = $575M DOM -- $650M OS 

 

 

[ringedmortality]

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The thing about Covid waves is that unless there's deaths accompanying them, people won't care.

 

Just wanted to add, also, there are way more cases than have been reported. In the U.S covid testing places have been shutdown as it's not seen as a necessity anymore. So it seems like a lot of cases are just people staying at home and treating it like the common cold. It doesn't really feel life and death to most people anymore.

 

Add that that the summer usually slows down viruses, I think it'll be fine.