Weekdays Thread (6/6-9) // 12.4m Mon // 13.76m Tue // 12.4m Wed // 9.0m Thurs

[Giesi]

If someone had told me 1 month ago that the new Top Gun would be a leggy mega-grosser AND Kate Bush slaying song charts all around the globe …..

[grim22]

8 minutes ago, Giesi said:

If someone had told me 1 month ago that the new Top Gun would be a leggy mega-grosser AND Kate Bush slaying song charts all around the globe …..

 

With a Jurassic movie coming out and then a Toy Story movie followed by a movie about Elvis

 

[upriser7]

40 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Would Top Gun have dropped 45% this last weekend and not 29%, i would be with you.

 

But this second weekend was so astonishing that were clearly in unprecedented territory now. Phenomenon films often enough dont play by the usual rulebook.

 

Top Gun has Fathers Day weekend + a Holiday Monday on its 4th weekend and the Independence Day Holiday coming up + the usual summer weekdays. Its competition is certainly there, but apart from Dominion and Thor, there are no other big action movies this summer until Bullet Train in August. Plus, the awesome WOM can cancel out the screen loss to a certain degree. More people will just go to fewer screenings.

 

I truly think were in for a historic run.

I also think it's important to remember that the demographics makeup of TGM audience is just vastly different than your typical blockbuster. 60-65% of TGM audience are caucasian whereas that is somewhere around 35% for typical CBM movies. It seems to be attracting audience who frequently do not go to theaters. That's why I think it is less likely to be affected by competition than your normal blockbuster movie

[stripe]

59 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

again gotta factor competition which will steal screens. When they take them screens won’t come back. Still 500+ domestic? Absolutely insane given pre release expectations 

 

A must see movie can perfectly coexist with new competition. Obviously, JW3 and Lightyear will have an impact, but in cases like TGM, it should be minor. As with Avatar, TGM has become an event film that appeals even to those that barely go to a theater but have the perception they can miss the experience.

 

Of course, 500M would already be more than great. I was just trying to predict TGM run looking at the data we have and comparing it with leggy event sized movies. I honestly think that TGM run can be more like a mini Avatar domestically.

[Ozymandias]

6 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Woudnt it be funny if Top Gun outgrosses both Avatar and Avatar 2?

 

Nature looses. Military wins!

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Top Gun: Maverick = First $300M DOM grosser for Tom Cruise.

 

Next goal: TGM = First $1B WW grosser for Tom Cruise

 

Will be interesting how Mission Impossible 7 & 8 does at the box office, considering that the eight film is the finale for the franchise.

[Cmasterclay]

How I felt about Jurassic World Dominion at start of summer versus how I'm feeling about it this week

 

 

[Mango]

52 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Top Gun: Maverick = First $300M DOM grosser for Tom Cruise.

 

Next goal: TGM = First $1B WW grosser for Tom Cruise

 

Will be interesting how Mission Impossible 7 & 8 does at the box office, considering that the eight film is the finale for the franchise.

I’m interested in this too. I don’t think the bumps are gonna be crazy, I think the Top Gun IP was just something most of us severely underlooked in terms of potential. That being said Cruise shooting back up into the limelight and the goodwill he’s getting from Top Gun could very well make at least one of the two upcoming MI movies have $300m potential 

[Eric Lasagna]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

I’m interested in this too. I don’t think the bumps are gonna be crazy, I think the Top Gun IP was just something most of us severely underlooked in terms of potential. That being said Cruise shooting back up into the limelight and the goodwill he’s getting from Top Gun could very well make at least one of the two upcoming MI movies have $300m potential 

They'll be like Fallout where everybody will overpredict it and think it'll cross 300M+ easy because Top Gun 2 made so much money, when it'll only do a slight increase from their predecessors. That's not a bad thing I might add.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

38 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

They'll be like Fallout where everybody will overpredict it and think it'll cross 300M+ easy because Top Gun 2 made so much money, when it'll only do a slight increase from their predecessors. That's not a bad thing I might add.

100%

[Tokugennumataka]

I think we're in for another treat on the 4th weekend. Whatever damage done by JWD should be done and will show nice received a nice recovery followed by a very strong Father's Day bump. Won't be surprised by a 43M+ weekend if the 3rd frame sees 55M+. 

[Mango]

47 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

They'll be like Fallout where everybody will overpredict it and think it'll cross 300M+ easy because Top Gun 2 made so much money, when it'll only do a slight increase from their predecessors. That's not a bad thing I might add.

Surely the inflation surge could help a big. Fallout did what, $220m? That’s got to be around $240-250m by now after the inflation and premium screens getting a bigger priority now. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.

[John Marston]

Mission Impossible movies have shot to the top of Netflix probably as a Top Gun afterglow. Can see the same happening with the new movie next year 

[MrPink]

My main concern about MI7 right now is that Falout came out closer to the end of July with little competition in August, which is not the case for MI7's current slot. Even if Oppenheimer and Barbie end up not posing a huge threat (but Oppenheimer is sure to take IMAX), The Marvels two weeks later is much bigger than anything Fallout faced. And it'll be harder to maintain enough theaters to get to Labor Day compared to Fallout with its current date.

Edited June 7, 2022 by MrPink

[Eric Lasagna]

My big thing with M:I 7 getting to 300M is that I don't see how it can grow its audience even further. The franchise has been ongoing for over 25 years, has had a new movie on an average of every four years or so between movies. At this point, the only people who are going to see it are likely already fans of these movies, and the only way I could see any more growth would be if they got some huge A-lister paired up with Cruise or something. That's not the case, so why would somebody with no real connection or interest in the franchise suddenly care?

 

Top Gun 2 is different, because there's only one movie to catch up with and the movie was designed where you didn't have to see the original to understand what's going on. I took my parents to see Maverick, but they have zero interest in this new Mission: Impossible. My mom's never seen them, my dad's only seen the first one, and I've never seen them express much interest in catching any of the other ones. What's the hook for them?

 

And for the record, I see around 250M for both of them, maybe DR2 could get to like 265M with some nostalgia finale factor behind it, but any higher than that is a huge leap IMO

[Maggie]

12 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

My big thing with M:I 7 getting to 300M is that I don't see how it can grow its audience even further. The franchise has been ongoing for over 25 years, has had a new movie on an average of every four years or so between movies. At this point, the only people who are going to see it are likely already fans of these movies, and the only way I could see any more growth would be if they got some huge A-lister paired up with Cruise or something. That's not the case, so why would somebody with no real connection or interest in the franchise suddenly care?

 

Top Gun 2 is different, because there's only one movie to catch up with and the movie was designed where you didn't have to see the original to understand what's going on. I took my parents to see Maverick, but they have zero interest in this new Mission: Impossible. My mom's never seen them, my dad's only seen the first one, and I've never seen them express much interest in catching any of the other ones. What's the hook for them?

 

And for the record, I see around 250M for both of them, maybe DR2 could get to like 265M with some nostalgia finale factor behind it, but any higher than that is a huge leap IMO

I'm excited about MI:DR, but you are right. I don't see it increasing too much. There is no hook for the next movie to increase big. It's business as usual. TG2's success won't attract new audience for a 7th movie in a series, if it was the first maybe, but seventh has its fans, i doubt it can attract new ones. Hoping for the best tho

[Maggie]

 

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

 

Wow, it hit the higher end of estimates, I'd say >$50M Weekend is locked

Edited June 7, 2022 by Cheddar Please

[MrHardapple]

Higher, the actuals always come in higher than expected.

What an amazing bo run this is!

Edited June 7, 2022 by MrHardapple

[The Dark Alfred]

Agreed that MI won't do a huge jump because of Top Gun, but for a franchise entering its 7th and 8th film, the potential to keep improving and most likely to post the highest numbers in the series yet is already a success. Not knowing WoM (which will be a big factor, the last three entries were keep getting better reception) I'd say 250m for DR1 and 300m for DR2 is doable. DR2 could hit 1 billion WW, assuming it gets a greenlight in China, Fallout did $180m there.  Either way Cruise is looking at two 250m domestic and 800m+ WW films and if he does Edge of Tomorrow 2 that is a guaranteed hit as well.