WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

So this weekend made about $213m in total, a comparable number to pre-pandemic summer. Can we have another round of $200m this coming weekend?

 

 

Next weekend:

 

Lightyear: 70M

Dominion: 50M

Top Gun: 40M

 

Would mean 160M from those 3 + lets say another 15M from holdovers, 175M. So its not impossible, we would just need Lightyear opening higher than my conservative guess here and better holds from both Dominion and Top Gun. Without Fathers Day, 200M overall weekend would have been very tough though imo.

[Nublar7]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Next weekend:

 

Lightyear: 70M

Dominion: 50M

Top Gun: 40M

 

Would mean 160M from those 3 + lets say another 15M from holdovers, 175M. So its not impossible, we would just need Lightyear opening higher than my conservative guess here and better holds from both Dominion and Top Gun. Without Fathers Day, 200M overall weekend would have been very tough though imo.

Are we really thinking Dominion will see a 66% drop next weekend? Especially with Fathers day? Fallen Kingdom has the biggest second weekend drop of the franchise and that was only 59% (I use the word "only" loosely). Not arguing your point at all, just curious if that is indeed the thought going into next weekend. 

[WittyUsername]

Looks like TGM won’t be making $700 million domestically after all. It’s still doing amazing business, but people may have gotten carried away. 

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Looks like TGM won’t be making $700 million domestically after all. It’s still doing amazing business, but people may have gotten carried away. 

from what I saw of the 3rd weekend is that screens in the evening were at max capacity... I think its got more in the tank once dominions opening weekend is out of the way

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, Nublar7 said:

Are we really thinking Dominion will see a 66% drop next weekend? Especially with Fathers day? Fallen Kingdom has the biggest second weekend drop of the franchise and that was only 59% (I use the word "only" loosely). Not arguing your point at all, just curious if that is indeed the thought going into next weekend. 

 

50M is like the lowest i think it could go next weekend should WOM be just mediocre and not good like with FK. Its a very conservative guess from my side. I obviously hope for it to match FK's 61M and with Fathers Day it should get there.

[M37]

36 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

So this weekend made about $213m in total, a comparable number to pre-pandemic summer. Can we have another round of $200m this coming weekend?

 

FSS was under $200M, and the only chance we have of a summer weekend above that threshold is Thor, though a string of $150+ is decent 

[titanic2187]

28 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Next weekend:

 

Lightyear: 70M

Dominion: 50M

Top Gun: 40M

 

Would mean 160M from those 3 + lets say another 15M from holdovers, 175M. So its not impossible, we would just need Lightyear opening higher than my conservative guess here and better holds from both Dominion and Top Gun. Without Fathers Day, 200M overall weekend would have been very tough though imo.

Both LY and Dominion could go higher as high as $80m and $60m. That would give $180m from top 3, and I agree not impossible but that would need some high-end performance from both JWD and LY.

 

On 6/11/2022 at 12:59 PM, Ryan Reynolds said:

weird there is no big studio comedy this Summer

If Nope is really unfinished as what rumors claim, Universal should try to bring forward Bros to July 22. That one has a breakout potential. 

[misterpepp]

Wouldn't Easter Sunday qualify as a studio comedy this summer? Unless we're only talking larger-budgeted like Lost City.

[harrisonisdead]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If Nope is really unfinished as what rumors claim, Universal should try to bring forward Bros to July 22. That one has a breakout potential. 

All of the material from Nope's recent marketing push (new trailers and character posters from a few days ago) continues to list a July 22 release date. Feel like they wouldn't be reaffirming that date at this point if there were substantial doubt in it being able to make it in time.

[EmpireCity]

Nope isn't moving.  

[titanic2187]

Decent hold for DS2, and has a better hold than CW in its 6th weekend. Marvel film tends to overperform during Father's day, so I am expecting a 25% drop next weekend 

 

[EmpireCity]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

Decent hold for DS2, and has a better hold than CW in its 6th weekend. Marvel film tends to overperform during Father's day, so I am expecting a 25% drop next weekend 

 

 

It might, but DS2 is going to lose a ton of screens this week as theaters bail out on it in anticipation of it going to Disney+ in a week.  

[WittyUsername]

45 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

from what I saw of the 3rd weekend is that screens in the evening were at max capacity... I think its got more in the tank once dominions opening weekend is out of the way

But does it have enough to make an extra $300 million+? 

[The Panda]

I predict next weekend Top Gun 2 increases because it’s a dad movie

[titanic2187]

I think every movie beat estimate thanks to strong Sunday. 

1	N	Jurassic World: Dominion	Universal	$145,075,625		4,676		$31,026	$145,075,625	1
2	(1)	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pi…	$51,855,344	-42%	4,262	-489	$12,167	$395,199,280	3
3	(2)	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	Walt Disney	$5,215,065	-43%	3,345	-420	$1,559	$398,137,923	6
4	(4)	The Bad Guys	Universal	$2,533,380	-24%	2,416	-456	$1,049	$91,810,825	8
5	(3)	The Bob’s Burgers Movie	20th Century…	$2,466,496	-47%	2,605	-820	$947	$27,215,036	3
6	(5)	Downton Abbey: A New Era	Focus Features	$1,757,605	-45%	2,011	-1,460	$874	$40,100,330	4
7	(-)	Everything Everywhere All At Once	A24	$1,271,108	-37%	1,434	n/c	$886	$63,031,678	12
8	(-)	Firestarter	Universal	$833,340	+733%	150	-193	$5,556	$9,265,600	5
9	(-)	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	Paramount Pi…	$750,559	-56%	1,067	-1,025	$703	$189,877,243	10
10	N	Ante Sundaraniki	Self Distrib…	$621,000		350		$1,774	$621,000	1
11	(-)	The Lost City	Paramount Pi…	$543,591	-61%	353	-458	$1,540	$104,944,924	12

[LonePirate]

So today (Monday) TGM looks to surpass $400M and leap over DS2 to be the #1 domestic film of the year so far. Who saw either of those happening before the summer season started?

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Yay! Weekend actuals go up for JWD, TGM & DS2.

 

Can we see a case where Top Gun 2 overperforms through rest of June & July?

[JohnnyGossamer]

37 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

So today (Monday) TGM looks to surpass $400M and leap over DS2 to be the #1 domestic film of the year so far. Who saw either of those happening before the summer season started?

I think there were actually few here expected it. Just a few though. But, it's not just over DS2... The way it's holding, it has a real shot being the #1 DOM movie this year over Batman, Strange, Jurassic, Thor, Black Panther, Avatar. Those are HUGE cinematic brands. That's nuts. Still hoping it legs it out to 600M+ DOM.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I think there were actually few here expected it. Just a few though. But, it's not just over DS2... The way it's holding, it has a real shot being the #1 DOM movie this year over Batman, Strange, Jurassic, Thor, Black Panther, Avatar. Those are HUGE cinematic brands. That's nuts. Still hoping it legs it out to 600M+ DOM.

 

The only thing that im wondering about is if there is an eventual limit concerning the amount of people that are willing to go see Top Gun in the first place. What i mean with that is that i could personally imagine that for many people, a movie about military planes doing cool stuff just isnt something theyre interested in, no matter how good it may be. Im not saying that this could be factor that could negatively affect its later legs, ive just been thinking about this recently.

 

For the record, i believe it will cross 600M eventually, but yeah, its just something i thought about.

[The Dark Rock]

1 hour ago, WittyUsername said:

But does it have enough to make an extra $300 million+? 

 

No. Probably around close to $170-200m which will be somewhere $570-600m depending on how it holds in coming weeks.

 

Two months back people would have been ok with $51-52m OW and 150m finish 

Incredible and probably the story of the year boxoffice wise.