Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The Chinese opening projections were downgraded to $75M from $200M. I'm honestly starting to think this might not make it to 2 billion.

[stephanos13]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Well yeah, because if you recall a couple pages ago we were talking about how merely average legs would take it over 2b. Merely average legs will not cut it now. Will need great legs for that, which I still believe are possible FYI.

 

The film is well received and has the whole holidays to itself (in most markets, anyway). If people really want those premium good seats they have all the time in the world to get them. But it does need to leg out.

 

And...I mean, yeah, I'm not sure what is wrong to say if it does over 2B it will have had exceptional legs. That's not an insult to the film, rather it should be the opposite?

When say for sure it means is definite. If you had said is possible/likely unless... then it's what you describe above.

 

Anyway we move...

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, stephanos13 said:

When say for sure it means is definite. If you had said is possible/likely unless... then it's what you describe above.

 

Anyway we move...

The fact that I said "unless" means I still think it's possible, but agree not the best choice of words from me. I am a bit bummed due to the disappointing news of past few days I guess.

[Sheldon Cr]

15 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The Chinese opening projections were downgraded to $75M from $200M. I'm honestly starting to think this might not make it to 2 billion.

Avatar 2 can make 2 billion without china..So highly unlikely it doesn't get to 2b. Every fan will want to experience this 2-5 times or more.

[Sheldon Cr]

18 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The Chinese opening projections were downgraded to $75M from $200M. I'm honestly starting to think this might not make it to 2 billion.

It can still make money the slow way. The president is pushing it there till February 

[Liiviig 1998]

Poeple are overreacting Abit here.

 

Expected screen count was chopped to nearly half previous day .  projections dropping from 200 to 75m doesn't surprise me that much.

 

Did we all forget JWD made nearly 3x it's openin weekend with worse conditions  and meh WOM.

 

It's all about WOM and hoping COVID restrictions don't become too much of a hindrance.

 

It can make 300m+ of a 75m OW if wom is really good.

 

And as for missing  2b. World cup is still going on and Christmas holidays will benefit this. 

 

OS OW is below NWH but I can guarantee it's going to leg it out over NWH in most markets.

 

550-650 Dom

1.3bn os -c

275- 400m china

 

Thinking 2.1-2.2bn WW 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jonan23]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Any noteworthy film to watch during Metro Manila Film Festival?

 

Last Year, when Film Board didn't allow NWH to play during this period.. Didn't MMFF 2021 end up flopping with boycotts and empty theatre though it did surpassed 2020 Box Office? 

 

Just curious if there is any film having of overtaking Maid in Malacañang (₱750M)

Yeah, people couldn't wait for Spiderman. There are are no such complaints this year. There is more interest in the MMFF here this year and I think some films like Family Matters and Partners in Crime will be successful though not at Maid's level

 

 

[simoimo19]

About 230K opening day in France ≈ 2M 

World cup affected the number of course , stellar WOM from audiences

[fabiopazzo2]

Yep Under 1.5b for sure..... oh my god why do they exaggerate?

 

 

[Nero]

6 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Yep Under 1.5b for sure..... oh my god why do they exaggerate?

 

 

Who?

[Gavin Feng]

Early reactions:

 

France - 4.4/5 (allocine)

Korea - 9.06/10 (naver)

HK - 4.6/5 (hkmovie)

TW - 3.9/5 (yahoo tw)

[Glogloglo]

This seems to be doing really well in Australia. 90% of theatre screens are playing the movie (3 or 4 shows simultaneously) and a lot of the evening shows are 80% full. I don’t think this is as big as NWH was but word of mouth is fantastic. Keep in mind a movie ticket in Aus is $50 for the nicer seats and $27 for the cheap screens. 

[GipJo]

What are the chances that it will stay in theaters during Chinese New Year? I think this will make or break the bo in China. I think it depends on if The Wandering Earth 2 moves or not.

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, GipJo said:

What are the chances that it will stay in theaters during Chinese New Year? I think this will make or break the bo in China. I think it depends on if The Wandering Earth 2 moves or not.

Wandering Earth 2 won't move out of Spring Festival.

[Sophia Jane]

Primeras calificaciones de #AvatarElCaminoDelAgua en Colombia (9.3/10), la cinta agotó el 95% de las funciones en pre-estreno y acumula ya mas de 202.123 Espectadores, para el fin de semana se espere que supere los 830.000 espectadores en nuestro país, es el estreno mas grande

[hw64]

4 hours ago, JustLurking said:

At this point under 2b feels like it'll happen for sure unless this legs out exceptional through the holidays. I'm going to give atleast a couple of weeks before I'm down to have the maverick convo though. Hopefully the legs are there.

 

More than anything, it's just a major bummer to end the year on a big disappointment, especially when so many other films already disappointed this year.

 

You've gone off the deep end. Seemingly a calm and measured poster a few days ago, now just kneejerking all over the place to the point where you're saying under $2b is basically near-guaranteed off the back of some lowered opening weekend expectations.

 

What happened?

[ThomasNicole]

Excellent reception here in Brazil as well. 

 

Honestly i feel people are jumping way too fast into conclusions. I mean, yeah it feels like everything is going wrong (people in China still afraid of going out, maybe snow in US, world cup on Sunday). 

 

But the reception is all countries it released is pretty good to superb (egg on SK just back up to 95%). Let's see if Cameron legs will strike a third time. 

[JustLurking]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

You've gone off the deep end. Seemingly a calm and measured poster a few days ago, now just kneejerking all over the place to the point where you're saying under $2b is basically near-guaranteed off the back of some lowered opening weekend expectations.

 

What happened?

Best to lower expectations and be positively surprised at this point

 

Jokes aside, China going abysmal relative to expectations plus a few other meh results really do bring forth the possibility of missing 2 billion for me. It's still on the table, of course, but I really don't think it's a lock now. Obviously saying "for sure" (...unless legs are excellent) was a poor choice of words and kneejerky, whatever, but this really will need to leg out hella strong now. Hopefully that's exactly what it does and I will eat my words soon though.

Edited December 15, 2022 by JustLurking

[Gavin Feng]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Excellent reception here in Brazil as well. 

 

Honestly i feel people are jumping way too fast into conclusions. I mean, yeah it feels like everything is going wrong (people in China still afraid of going out, maybe snow in US, world cup on Sunday). 

 

But the reception is all countries it released is pretty good to superb (egg on SK just back up to 95%). Let's see if Cameron legs will strike a third time. 

any local film site like IMDb?

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

any local film site like IMDb?

We have AdoroCinema but the data is too small (and the site is losing it's audience overall).

 

Here we just use twitter a lot for everything, the movie is trending high since the shows started yesterday and everyone is talking about how amazing the experience is and it didn't disappoint after so many years.