Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[thajdikt]

Cameron legs will strike no matter what, don´t fear. This movie will earn all the money. 

[Nikostar]

Could it be that we have over hyped the film and people are just not interested. I mean Avatar came out 13 years ago and 3d is no longer popular. The fact that it is underperforming everywhere could be because of interest.

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Could it be that we have over hyped the film and people are just not interested. I mean Avatar came out 13 years ago and 3d is no longer popular. The fact that it is underperforming everywhere could be because of interest.

Even if this does disappoint and go sub 2b, saying "people are not interested" is a joke. Say it misses and goes ~1.6-1.9b (random number) with shit ERs and demolished by covid in china, that would still be a huge film.

 

Disappointment and flop are not synonims.

[Gkalaitza]

20 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Could it be that we have over hyped the film and people are just not interested. I mean Avatar came out 13 years ago and 3d is no longer popular. The fact that it is underperforming everywhere could be because of interest.

Its underperforming the " $2b is an absolute lock and 2.5b is a safe bet" projections and excitement. That projection is a "this has insane amounts of interest and hype and will ouperform anything anyone was thinking a couple of years ago" . A Downgrade/underperformance from that doesnt get us to "people arent interested" , it gets us to "less people are interested but still more than basicaly any movie other than idk 2-3  in the last decade" . 

 

And it should be noted that most of the underperformance will likely come from China as a % of optimistic projections last week. And thats more because it turns out we got ahead of ourselves with the covid situation and it seems much more tricky than people thought and with many variable and fear. The drop in projections there is unlike anywhere else and that isnt remotely explained by "no interest" since it started top 2-3 all timestrong in interest and presales stats . If China drops from 500m that most people (not even optimists)  were predicting a week ago to 250m and thus be the reason the movie misses 2b it seems to me that its a very particular thing in China's situation and not something universal ,despite other markets probably underperforming (but less comperably)

 

It should still do at worst a cool Dom 500 - China :200 - OS 1b =1.7b with an extremely suboptimal Chinese situation and garbage exchange rates almost everywhere. Thats not a "people arent interested" deal

Edited December 15, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Excellent reception here in Brazil as well. 

 

Honestly i feel people are jumping way too fast into conclusions. I mean, yeah it feels like everything is going wrong (people in China still afraid of going out, maybe snow in US, world cup on Sunday). 

 

But the reception is all countries it released is pretty good to superb (egg on SK just back up to 95%). Let's see if Cameron legs will strike a third time. 

Yeah. I have seen nothing but insane praise in social media except for a few people. I think the legs will be spetacular over here...

[interiorgatordecorator]

this is a bit disheartening

always dangerous having to rely on above average legs to get to what many (and I) saw as a lock (2 billion);

and seeing a 200 million drop in projections will always sting

even if the magic happens legs-wise it seems like we all slightly overstimated how much (initial) interest there was in avatar

Edited December 15, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Danhjpn]

14 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

this is a bit disheartening

always dangerous having to rely on above average legs to get to what many (and I) saw as a lock (2 billion)

and seeing a 200 million drop in projections will always sting

even if the magic happens legs-wise it seems like we all slightly overstimated how much interest there was in avatar

Need to wait 2 months after the OW to check the legs and interest.

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

this is a bit disheartening

always dangerous having to rely on above average legs to get to what many (and I) saw as a lock (2 billion);

and seeing a 200 million drop in projections will always sting

even if the magic happens legs-wise it seems like we all slightly overstimated how much (initial) interest there was in avatar

I will wait until 2nd weekend to judge Avatar 2 but now the word-of-mouth locally is hyperpositive online. 

[GipJo]

Maoyan updated their prediction, 36.7 mil first day including early screening, 124 mil first weekend, 360 mil in total run. China looks bleak at this point, it needs great leg in other international market.

[Flamengo81]

16 minutes ago, GipJo said:

Maoyan updated their prediction, 36.7 mil first day including early screening, 124 mil first weekend, 360 mil in total run. China looks bleak at this point, it needs great leg in other international market.

I would be really happy with these numbers given the cirscunstances not gonna lie

[NCsoft]

Yeah, $360M at this point would be a really good number.

I think we might observe some really peculiar legs/behavior during its China run, the potential upside I think can still be pretty big.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

15 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

 

´+13% over JWD is pretty grim and means less admits than it (even if there are important factors that will result in a lower ow)

all up to legs now

Edited December 15, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Issac Newton]

12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

´+13% over JWD is pretty grim and means less admits than it (even if there are important factors that will result in a lower ow)

all up to legs now

Market shares are strong, including some at the 99% level. On a like-for-like basis at today’s exchange rates, it’s estimated that the first day overall results are 124% ahead of the original Avatar, 70% above Top Gun: Maverick, 13% higher than Jurassic World: Dominion, 12% behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and 23% behind Spider-Man: No Way Home.

[JustLurking]

17 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

´+13% over JWD is pretty grim and means less admits than it (even if there are important factors that will result in a lower ow)

all up to legs now

Eh, not really. A lot of those markets are deflated (either WC or just backloadedness). In SK  JWD had 2x its OD admits but will have less than half its OW admits for example.

[Issac Newton]

Top Ten Markets:

 

Korea: $3.3M

France: $2.9M
Germany: $2.5M
Italy: $1.6M
Indonesia: $800K
Sweden: $600K
Thailand: $600K
Denmark: $600K
Norway: $500K
Netherlands: $500K

[Purple Minion]

Deadline:

Before some markets begin in earnest, there are strong previews (not included in the total Wednesday tally above). Mexico’s sneaks are at $1.5M and Brazil’s at $1M for a total $4.4M across the whole Latin America region. Despite only being previews, The Way of Water was No. 1 in all Latin American markets on Wednesday. In the main, 55% of box office for the region came from 3D and other premium formats.  

Elsewhere, Australia registered $1.3M of previews (again not included in the $15.8M to date reported above)

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Purple Minion said:

Deadline:

Before some markets begin in earnest, there are strong previews (not included in the total Wednesday tally above). Mexico’s sneaks are at $1.5M and Brazil’s at $1M for a total $4.4M across the whole Latin America region. Despite only being previews, The Way of Water was No. 1 in all Latin American markets on Wednesday. In the main, 55% of box office for the region came from 3D and other premium formats.  

Elsewhere, Australia registered $1.3M of previews (again not included in the $15.8M to date reported above)

 

so more like $21.5M on Wednesday? Seems decent enough all things considered

[The Dark Alfred]

Mediocre start so far, but it's early days. It's going to have a long holiday run nand decent drops most areas. Obviously if it falls below 2 billion WW that's a disappointment and puts future sequls in doubt, but it's too early to be negative. Having released only trash, boring trailers obviously didn't help. WoM should be similar level to the first one, so that's a good sign.