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Eric Burnett

The Fall Guy | May 3, 2024 | Universal | Ryan Gosling, Emily Blunt | Based off the 80s TV show

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I think the industry tracking is released tomorrow for this. Any thing less than 35-40 or something and Universal has their work cut for them in these next few weeks to break out enough so that strong WOM and legs could turn this into a profitable hit and start a franchise. 

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Really strong reviews and buzz from  screenings  at SWSW and Cinema Con. Yes industry screenings don't automatically  translate to strong response from audiences or regular critics. Monkey Man just proved that. But by all indications this will be a crowd pleaser that plays strong with the GA.

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when you have 2 Barbenheimer actors of course you can't not try to use that to sell this movie too. They made it at the Oscars, they made it at Snl and it's ok

but now it's time to focus on the movie and let that rest in peace. 

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12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Ugh. Hey maybe this will move the needle. They have the goods on this movie why is it so hard to get that across.

Maybe Universal isn’t confident. I doubt this will move the needle in any significant way. 

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6 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Maybe Universal isn’t confident. I doubt this will move the needle in any significant way. 

This movie will mostly rely on Post release WOM. Just hope the OW is good enough for that to mean anything.

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This is sitting at 90% on RT right now and most of those reviews are not eh it's okay. Most of them are enthusiastic this movie is a blast type of reviews. It seems where Universal is failing is getting the GA to check those out. Still think it can be saved in the last week with late buys and Walkups. Then WOM kicks in with Mothers day in second weekend if Women enjoy it as much or more than men it should have a strong hold.It would be better to have a strong hold off a 35-40 million opening than a 25-30 million though.
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There’s nothing to really give the GA a reason to care about this film. “Ryan Gosling does stunts and flirts with Emily Blunt in slo mo” gives Red Notice vibes, not summer kickoff or “watch this in theaters” vibes. Also the whole “hey look, Barbenheimer” thing is old. It was nearly a year ago. People aren’t going to watch an entirely different thing because of Kenergy or Oppenheimer’s wife. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are just not big draws, at least not for this type of film with this type of budget.

 

I do agree with other comments saying this will probably be a more of a WOM film, but even with Apes looking weak and Furiosa probably being weak as well, will it catch on enough? We’ll see.

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3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

It would be better to have a strong hold off a 35-40 million opening than a 25-30 million though.

Agreed. Right now, I'm thinking it opens around the $35-45M range, and maybe a similar multiplier to Bullet Train so long as the word of mouth is good.

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I do agree and think the overreliance on the Barbenheimer connection isn't doing much for this. Real "last year called, it wants its meme back" energy, especially now that the movie year of 2023 is well into the rearview mirror over a month after the Oscars ended.

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