Halloween Weekend Thread (10/28-30) | Weekend Estimates: Adam 27.7, Paradise 10, Devil 7, Smile 5, Ends 3.8

[stephen]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

This will be the first sub-$500M domestic grossing October (excluding pandemic year) since ... 2001

A space oddity?

[Coneilg93]

24 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

all the doom and gloom for a -59% drop?    That's actually better than most recent CBM releases.. 

I think the problem is that 200M budget +marketing. Without China, I don't think it will break even.  WB was crazy to put that much money into this movie.

[Mojoguy]

I'm now expecting Hollywood to rush out and give the Terrifier director a Stephen King movie to direct. Just don't give him crap like Tommyknockers please.

 

For the movie after that they will give him a superhero movie to do with a crazy lead actor that chokes women and throws chairs at people's heads.

[Issac Newton]

Title	Estimated weekend	% change	Locations	Location change	Average	Total	Weekend	Distributor
Black Adam	$27,700,000	-59%	4,402		$6,293	$111,138,667	2	Warner Bros.
Ticket to Paradise	$10,000,000	-39%	3,692	149	$2,709	$33,731,570	2	Universal
Prey for the Devil	$7,025,000		2,980		$2,357	$7,025,000	1	Lionsgate
Smile	$5,050,000	-40%	3,221	-75	$1,568	$92,387,230	5	Paramount
Halloween Ends	$3,830,000	-52%	3,419	-482	$1,120	$60,323,710	3	Universal
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$2,825,000	-34%	3,135	-401	$901	$32,560,233	4	Sony Pictures
Till	$2,810,827	673%	2,058	1,954	$1,366	$3,637,474	3	United Artists
Terrifier 2	$1,803,750	3%	1,550	795	$1,164	$7,638,050	4	Cinedigm Entertainment Group
The Woman King	$1,110,000	-41%	1,446	-412	$768	$64,584,240	7	Sony Pictures
TÁR	$1,020,000	104%	1,087	946	$938	$2,487,823	4	Focus Features
Triangle of Sadness	$549,000	-9%	610	330	$900	$2,281,216	4	Neon
The Banshees of Inisherin	$540,000	193%	58	54	$9,310	$790,760	2	Searchlight Pictures
Don’t Worry Darling	$249,000	-71%	576	-730	$432	$44,839,312	6	Warner Bros.
Amsterdam	$209,000	-75%	535	-1,215	$391	$14,571,784	4	20th Century Studios
The Bad Guys	$205,000		1,478		$139	$96,918,440	28	Universal
Barbarian	$201,000	-64%	465	-320	$432	$40,545,610	8	20th Century Studios
Top Gun: Maverick	$120,000	-59%	292	-399	$411	$716,582,761	23	Paramount
Minions: The Rise of Gru	$116,000	-49%	531	-234	$218	$368,981,990	18	Universal
Aftersun	$75,242	24%	17	13	$4,426	$166,030	2	A24
Armageddon Time	$72,000		6		$12,000	$72,000	1	Focus Features
Bros	$31,000	-85%	101	-531	$307	$11,608,710	5	Universal
See How They Run	$24,000	-72%	160	-120	$150	$9,570,542	7	Searchlight Pictures
Moonage Daydream	$20,000	-51%	52	-34	$385	$4,200,310	7	Neon
Cat Daddies	$8,000	-18%	4	1	$2,000	$37,135	3	Gray Hat Productions
The Divine Protector – Master Salt Begins	$2,269	-83%	6	-3	$378	$18,502	2	Freestyle Releasing

[Merkel]

I'm genuinely curious if Minions has enough fuel left in the tank to outgross The Batman 

[AJG]

32 minutes ago, Coneilg93 said:

I think the problem is that 200M budget +marketing. Without China, I don't think it will break even.  WB was crazy to put that much money into this movie.

I read somewhere that, once you take advertising costs into account, a lot of movies actually play at a loss in China. What’s $100m if you only get $25m back? Would their promotional budget exceed the revenue they get back?

[excel1]

As a reminder, WB are no doubt more eager to roll out Black Adam 2 than Dune 2 based on performance.

[WayneBorg]

MINIONS 2 WW:

 

Domestic Box Office	$368,981,990	Details
International Box Office	$565,716,000	Details
Worldwide Box Office	$934,697,990

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Terrifier 2 did great. Slight increase from last weekend, while other horror like Smile and Barbarian dropped somewhat a litle hard. Ends collapsed once AGAIN.

 

Terrifier 2 performing like a nova compared to the other horror movie stars this years in terms of overperformance. Really curious how they will handle Terrifier 3 in terms theater release and how much it will make.

 

It must have been first Halloween with everything after open after covid closures these past 2 years, only way to explain the bigger than expected drops.

 

Terrifier's run has been good and all but surely doubling its theatre count for a very small increase isn't great. If anything it comes across as this being the week when the wheels fell off a bit.

 

Barbarian and Smile are still much bigger overperformers. 

 

I'd much rather see Terrifier's director be given a solid commitment in terms of a run of three or so films where he has 10/20m to work with than see him given the keys to a big franchise.

 

 

As for the Black Adam numbers....again, it seems weird because in and of themselves for an original lesser known character they're good. At the same time they struggle to justify the immense budget.....maybe it's possible we aren't being told something and the budget for BA includes some rolled-in filming for the sequel already?

 

On the other hand, it seems strange that some are eager to paint Black Adam as a horrendous bomb given the sheer desperation that we saw last year with the *actual* horrendous bomb of Suicide Squad and how many were then, and still are, in denial about that movie's failure due to, mostly, enjoying the film themselves.

[Cmasterclay]

Kind of a rough weekend all around. But given the absolutely insane crowds at every downtown event over the last two days, I would chalk them up to three years of pent up Halloween demand.

 

They are expanding the platform releases too fast and too early. These movies need momentum, holidays, and early awards to help build buzz. I thought Till was very good (in a predictable, stately way) but nobody is rushing out to see Till on Halloweekend, and now it looks bad.

[GOGODanca]

https://twitter.com/TheRock/status/1586785020764508161?t=mdzuBnzutL9SYfYbYZ1xXQ&s=19

[OncomingStorm93]

"Black Adam Box Office Hits $100M Faster Than Any DC Movie Since Aquaman"

 

I don't know what's funnier, the fact that hitting the very high bar of, uh, $100m, faster than another film is something The Rock thinks is celebratory, or that you have to pretend Joker and The Batman don't exist to get this headline that you're celebrating.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Non-IP Top 10 post pandemic domestic update:

 

 

Nope- 123.2m (171.3m WW) (44.3m OW)

Free Guy- 121.6m (331.5m WW) (28.3m OW)

The Lost City- 105.3m (190.8m WW) (30.4m OW)

Everything Everywhere- 70m (100.7m WW)

The Woman King- 64.5m (87.2m WW) (19m OW)

Dog- 61.7m (84.9m WW) (14.8m OW)

Tenet- 58.5m (365.2m WW) (9.3m OW)

Don't Worry Darling- 44.8m (83.5m WW) (19.3m OW)

Barbarian- 40.5m (42.5m WW) (10.5m OW)

The Northman- 34.2m (69.1m WW) (12.2m OW)

 

SOON TO BE:

Ticket To Paradise- 33.7m (119.3m WW) (16.5m OW)

[YM!]

5 hours ago, excel1 said:

As a reminder, WB are no doubt more eager to roll out Black Adam 2 than Dune 2 based on performance.

You doomed 200m, why would you want to doom a sequel?

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

They are expanding the platform releases too fast and too early. These movies need momentum, holidays, and early awards to help build buzz. I thought Till was very good (in a predictable, stately way) but nobody is rushing out to see Till on Halloweekend, and now it looks bad.

If this were the case, they would be holding all of these movies for limited December launches before expanding them in January, or doing the "one week qualifying run" thing before officially opening them during January/February when awards season is officially in full swing. But even NY/LA theaters only have so much space, and trying to drag a movie's run out from October to January vs. striking while the iron is hot (at least as much as you can, limited releases are usually always wide by the fourth weekend in release) just doesn't seem viable in this day and age. The fact that the theaters that would help power movies like Call Me by Your Name or The Favourite to those insane $100K+ PTAs that would fuel buzz went under (and have no sign of reopening in the foreseeable future) isn't helping matters either.

 

There's also the issue of timing, meaning they want the movies to make as much as they can before theaters are forced to drop them. Because it's expected to be so big, and because it's so long (add 20 minutes or so of trailers and you end up with an over 3 hour movie), Black Panther is going to be consuming a ton of theater space in less than two weeks to meet demand, and then after that there will be a total of 7 major studio releases over the following three weekends. Then we get to Christmas, which is going to be mostly all about Avatar because that rumored running time means theaters are going to have to devote a lot of space to it. The entire 12/19-Christmas Day frame in 2018 saw a total of 9 movies either opening or expanding to wide release, but this year, the weekend before Christmas and Christmas Weekend itself combined are for now confirmed to have "only" a total of six wide releases, with the other five (Puss in Boots, Whitney, the also reportedly 3 hour long Babylon, the wide expansions for Spoiler Alert and Women Talking) hoping to take advantage of the holidays as much as they can without posing even the slightest bit of a threat to challenging Avatar.

 

Till's expansion isn't exactly good, but given that it was always going to be a difficult sell in any scenario, it's acceptable enough given the circumstances. TAR and Triangle of Sadness look to finish with about $5M each before finding bigger audiences on streaming. Banshees expansion is solid, we'll see how it does when it goes wide next weekend. Armageddon Time seems DOA.

Edited October 30, 2022 by filmlover

[Eric S'ennui]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If this were the case, they would be holding all of these movies for limited December launches before expanding them in January, or doing the "one week qualifying run" thing before officially opening them during January/February when awards season is officially in full swing. But even NY/LA theaters only have so much space, and trying to drag a movie's run out from October to January vs. striking while the iron is hot (at least as much as you can, limited releases are usually always wide by the fourth weekend in release) just doesn't seem viable in this day and age. The fact that the theaters that would help power movies like Call Me by Your Name or The Favourite to those insane $100K+ PTAs that would fuel buzz went under (and have no sign of reopening in the foreseeable future) isn't helping matters either.

 

There's also the issue of timing, meaning they want the movies to make as much as they can before theaters are forced to drop them. Because it's expected to be so big, and because it's so long (add 20 minutes or so of trailers and you end up with an over 3 hour movie), Black Panther is going to be consuming a ton of theater space in less than two weeks to meet demand, and then after that there will be a total of 7 major studio releases over the following three weekends. Then we get to Christmas, which is going to be mostly all about Avatar because that rumored running time means theaters are going to have to devote a lot of space to it. The entire 12/19-Christmas Day frame in 2018 saw a total of 9 movies either opening or expanding to wide release, but this year, the weekend before Christmas and Christmas Weekend itself combined are for now confirmed to have "only" a total of six wide releases, with the other five (Puss in Boots, Whitney, the also reportedly 3 hour long Babylon, the wide expansions for Spoiler Alert and Women Talking) hoping to take advantage of the holidays as much as they can without posing even the slightest bit of a threat to challenging Avatar.

 

Till's expansion isn't exactly good, but given that it was always going to be a difficult sell in any scenario, it's acceptable enough given the circumstances. TAR and Triangle of Sadness look to finish with about $5M each before finding bigger audiences on streaming. Banshees expansion is solid, we'll see how it does when it goes wide next weekend. Armageddon Time seems DOA.

I don't think Clay is asking nor expecting these movies to stay through until December or January. And I think it's fair to say Tar and Till should have at least waited a little bit longer before going into over 1,000 theaters just to drum up a little bit more hype. Like them being in the same TC as Triangle of Sadness' 610 theaters this weekend, then 1,000 for Tar and 2,000 for Till the following weekend, where there is nothing out apart from the fans-only One Piece movie, would make way more sense. It allows them to get more buzz and word of mouth for one more weekend and audiences who were busy with Halloween are more willing to come out.

 

Banshees is set to go to about 500-600 theaters next weekend, and probably won't get to 1,000 until the 18th or Thanksgiving, with it probably going a little longer before the December holidays kick in. It's a good strategy capitalizing on word of mouth and the November holidays. But I guess at the end of the day, Focus and UA don't really care and are just waiting for these movies to hit PVOD, where the supposed real money is. So what do I know?

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

I don't think Clay is asking nor expecting these movies to stay through until December or January. And I think it's fair to say Tar and Till should have at least waited a little bit longer before going into over 1,000 theaters just to drum up a little bit more hype. Like them being in the same TC as Triangle of Sadness' 610 theaters this weekend, then 1,000 for Tar and 2,000 for Till the following weekend, where there is nothing out apart from the fans-only One Piece movie, would make way more sense. It allows them to get more buzz and word of mouth for one more weekend and audiences who were busy with Halloween are more willing to come out.

 

Banshees is set to go to about 500-600 theaters next weekend, and probably won't get to 1,000 until the 18th or Thanksgiving, with it probably going a little longer before the December holidays kick in. It's a good strategy capitalizing on word of mouth and the November holidays. But I guess at the end of the day, Focus and UA don't really care and are just waiting for these movies to hit PVOD, where the supposed real money is. So what do I know?

Triangle of Sadness and TAR are both already at sub-$1K PTAs, so it seems like this is as good as it's getting for either of these movies. Honestly, even with the acclaim and awards buzz for Cate, I always felt the latter was going to struggle to connect (being a nearly 160 minute long character drama about a controversy-plagued fictional conductor) unless Focus had saved it for a more awards-friendly November/December date (and even then a total in the teens was probably the best case scenario), but I guess they figured the audience for it was more likely to catch it on streaming and made Spoiler Alert (which will likely make the most money of their awards bets this year as the most basic/mainstream-looking one out of all of them) their entry in the holiday sweepstakes.

[misterpepp]

I wouldn't be surprised if Empire of Light and The Whale also went wide on Xmas weekend, the former especially since its awards chances seem to be fading.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, datpepper said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Empire of Light and The Whale also went wide on Xmas weekend, the former especially since its awards chances seem to be fading.

The Numbers has The Whale listed as a wide release for the 9th, though I'm skeptical of that, especially when they haven't even released a trailer yet (it sounds like a difficult movie to try and market, but perhaps they're looking to use the "Brendan's Comeback" narrative that's already been building as much as they can).

[misterpepp]

39 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Numbers has The Whale listed as a wide release for the 9th, though I'm skeptical of that, especially when they haven't even released a trailer yet (it sounds like a difficult movie to try and market, but perhaps they're looking to use the "Brendan's Comeback" narrative that's already been building as much as they can).

 

And conversely, BOM is listing Empire of Light as wide and Whale as limited! I always figured they were limited on the 9th, but maybe one or both of them will take advantage of the empty weekend.