A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Reddroast]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

You do you I guess? Just don't pass it off as some huge upset of a club lol.

No it's the certainty of the stans... That has me on guard

[DAR]

@freezingcoldtakes

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

You do you I guess? Just don't pass it off as some huge upset of a club lol.

With the pushback he got.... lol

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

No it's the certainty of the stans... That has me on guard

Okay. Go celebrate in 2 weeks instead of now then, idk.

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

But those daily estimates are informed? It’s not like Anthony is logging into ComScore and entering numbers into a spreadsheet himself, but rather being sourced those figures (it’s their extrapolation from a daily number for which I often take issue, but for TGM Deadline put up a $153M 4-day before Paramount came out their $151 Sun est

 

Yesterday, we had TFri estimates of $38 (Deadline source), $38-$40 from EC, and (I think) $36 from Charlie, all from the same data (though Charlie’s was later in the day). There’s some nuance/MOE in that process, and maybe their source(s) aren’t as good with it as others, but it’s not an uniformed extrapolation 

“Informed” probably poor word choice. But deadline tends to pick from among the lowest reasonable nums based on info, so nums increasing throughout weekend is the base case and staying flat throughout weekend is actively poor. Which forces us to identify breakouts with magnitude of increase rather than presence of it.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Korra Legion

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

With the pushback he got.... lol

I get that there are some stans and all, but his club has OVERWHELMINGLY more people in than out. If 80% of people are going in on your club, you made a pretty safe club. Even a lot of people who went out only did so on the assumption that it would have giant China numbers which is obviously not happening now with covid exploding there.

 

Come on.

[Flopped]

PLEASE GIVE US THE SATURDAY NUMBER 

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, Flopped said:

PLEASE GIVE US THE SATURDAY NUMBER 

42-43

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

42-43

If this does end up being the number, there's a chance it misses 130 for its OW.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

No it's the certainty of the stans... That has me on guard

Stans are gonna stan 🤷‍♂️

 

Some of us have gone out of our way to temper expectations based on data in hand - not what outcome is preferred - and what is likely moving forward vs not.  Like @XXR Tulkun Rider said there’s still a good amount of uncertainty, but the range is (slowly) becoming more defined

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

“Informed” probably poor word choice. But deadline tends to pick from among the lowest reasonable nums based on info, so nums increasing throughout weekend is the base case and staying flat throughout weekend is actively poor. Which forces us to identify breakouts with magnitude of increase rather than presence of it.

I just think it’s a matter of their source(s) being more conservative, adjusting by at most say 10% from base case, when the actual variability is more like +/-20%. But that they consistently underpredict “surging” movies (and over predict pre-sale heavy ones) is itself a data point 

[Alexdube]

13 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Because we can read the room. China is going to make less than the original did. Europe as a whole will probably make 60% of the first. DOM likely comes in $150-200M less than the first. WOM is good but it's not "OMG you have to experience this!" good like the 1st one was. There is still plenty of unknown on how much it ends up making, but we're talking arguments in the $1.6-2.2B range, no where near $2.9B+

I mean a lot of people are definitely saying this and more. It's not like everyone is saying it's mid, wom doesn't necessarily work like an average. It definitely has that "never before seen" factor, which is huge.

 

[Reddroast]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Stans are gonna stan 🤷‍♂️

 

Some of us have gone out of our way to temper expectations based on data in hand - not what outcome is preferred - and what is likely moving forward vs not.  Like @XXR Tulkun Rider said there’s still a good amount of uncertainty, but the range is (slowly) becoming more defined

Never go full stan.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

I just think it’s a matter of their source(s) being more conservative, adjusting by at most say 10% from base case, when the actual variability is more like +/-20%. But that they consistently underpredict “surging” movies (and over predict pre-sale heavy ones) is itself a data point 

I mean, I have beef with reliably “conservative” forecasters, so that is part of it 😛  

 

Part of that beef is I feel it can create a mirage of surging when a movie just does normally. A lot of times when a movie is “surging” it’ll gradually do like +40% from deadline first article to actuals but a good prediction at the time of their 2nd update would have been like +-5% from actuals.   
 

Some movies are able to achieve “surging” vs not conservative biased predictions though which is a huge breakout sign

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I mean a lot of people are definitely saying this and more. It's not like everyone is saying it's mid, wom doesn't necessarily work like an average. It definitely has that "never before seen" factor, which is huge.

 

More of a “never seen before except that one time 13 years ago” factor. Which is still something! Not quite the same something though.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If this does end up being the number, there's a chance it misses 130 for its OW.

 

Hmmmm.....

 

*does some back of the envelope math*

 

*pulls a semi-random multi of 4.25x*

 

Hmmmm.....

 

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Porthos

[Ozymandias]

@charlie Jatinder #s plz

[cooldude97]

rewatching avatar 1 before i see the movie 2 tomorrow but f#$# man a creative as Pandora is those mech designs are super generic and boring looking  

[DAR]

The World Cup ends tomorrow.

 

And let me add it will be done by noon in the States

Edited December 18, 2022 by DAR

[Cap]

I just glanced at my IMAX screen for now until Christmas. They are seats all the way booked to Christmas. The 2:30 and 6:30pm are the most popular. It’s sold out for tomorrow (10:30am, 2:30pm, 6:30pm) and the 6:30pm on Tuesday is sold out. 
 

The 2D showings are still lacking. Tomorrow it looked like some people were showing up for the 2D showings around the 3 to 6 window, but the showings before, and after was still really bare. So it looks like the PLFs in my area, at least, are supporting the long legs theory.