Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[Nero]

10 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

 

It's quite obvious that the storm only impacted the areas that love Avatar 2 the most.  If the areas were reversed, A2 would have been up 15-20%.  It's science or math or something. 

It's the way of 14.5 !!!!!

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, Nero said:

It's the way of 14.5 !!!!!

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Dec 22, 2022	1	$14,632,040	+2%	4,202	$3,482	$197,681,686

 

Nah, $14.6m

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Dec 22, 2022	1	$14,632,040	+2%	4,202	$3,482	$197,681,686

 

Nah, $14.6m

hmm

 

$14.5m + (0.1 * days since the 21st)

 

we could be looking at $100m dailies in 86 days from now

Edited December 23, 2022 by IronJimbo

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Dec 22, 2022	1	$14,632,040	+2%	4,202	$3,482	$197,681,686

 

Nah, $14.6m

ruined

I demand a refund

[AndyChrono]

43 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Thursday number is a reflection of the storm, right? In normal circumstances it would go up.

Yes.

 

In 2016, almost every film increased and Rogue One was roughly on par with the overall market.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2016/12/22

 

Avatar 2 was the ONLY increase yesterday.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2022/12/22

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

 

It's quite obvious that the storm only impacted the areas that love Avatar 2 the most.  If the areas were reversed, A2 would have been up 15-20%.  It's science or math or something. 

 

I mean, you joke, but when you start drilling down to subsets the margin for error does actually increase.  Prob not enough to cover this large of a gap, but then again looking at any one day shift is also... squirrelly. 

 

====

 

I think it is fair to say that overall that A2 hasn't yet shown better legs than R1 through its first week, even when accounting for weather and random variation and a dozen other factors.  

 

I think it is also fair to note that SW in general is more frontloaded than a property like A2, and that said frontloadedness might still be a factor in the first M-Th set of days.

 

I think it is also also fair to note that the proof will be in the pudding when it comes to HOW MUCH more backloaded A2 will actually be.

 

(in fact, I dare say most of the arguments  surrounding A2 are differences in opinion on the exact level of backloadedness)

Edited December 23, 2022 by Porthos

[jedijake]

Looking at how certain franchises flip flop all over the place got me thinking of one possibly MOST consistent franchise in terms of reviews and box office performance: Harry Potter.

 

Notice I did not say wizarding world, just Harry Potter.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by jedijake

[Flamengo81]

Genuine question: was Top Gun demostrating the insane legs it ended up having over the first weekdays? In my memory at least, it was not until the second weekend drop that the crazyness begun. So I still think it is way too early to say how this will play out from now on...

[AnDr3s]

waiting for 14.5 for every week day

[ZeeSoh]

21 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

14.5m

@stuart360 @Flip

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

 

 

[Sophia Jane]

You Guys need to notice that Avatar is the only film which increase from yesterday

[MovieMan89]

It’s irritating to be dealing with the weather factor for a movie that is already a bit of unprecedented scenario at the box office (not really being like your typical sequel, but we also don’t know how much it’s not like a sequel either). 
 

A1 had an almost flat second weekend bc of the huge winter storm that impacted its OW. Obviously WOM was what led to a phenomenal hold in the first place, but it definitely would not have been that insane without the deflated OW that happened. So basically, whatever happens this weekend, we could likely assume the third weekend will perform better than it would have otherwise. The ca eat there being that I think it’s easier for a movie to “make up” ground it lost on its 2nd weekend like A1 did than it’s 3rd like A2 will need to do, so that’s unfortunate. 

[cdsacken]

In general 1.65-2B is good. Given the expectations of Avatar not so much

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s irritating to be dealing with the weather factor for a movie that is already a bit of unprecedented scenario at the box office (not really being like your typical sequel, but we also don’t know how much it’s not like a sequel either). 
 

A1 had an almost flat second weekend bc of the huge winter storm that impacted its OW. Obviously WOM was what led to a phenomenal hold in the first place, but it definitely would not have been that insane without the deflated OW that happened. So basically, whatever happens this weekend, we could likely assume the third weekend will perform better than it would have otherwise. The ca eat there being that I think it’s easier for a movie to “make up” ground it lost on its 2nd weekend like A1 did than it’s 3rd like A2 will need to do, so that’s unfortunate. 

yeah it's very annoying, basically delaying the crucial moment for domestic

[ZeeSoh]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TBF I was asked by a certain mod to give 14.5 everyday. Turns out I don't have to even lie for last two days. 

 

8 hours ago, Brainbug said:

TBF I was asked by a certain mod  ZeeSoh to give 14.5 everyday. Turns out I don't have to even lie for last two days. 

 

But seriously

Spoiler

 

No but really

Spoiler

I actually am not the mod who told Charlie that

 

 

[hw64]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

So basically, whatever happens this weekend, we could likely assume the third weekend will perform better than it would have otherwise. The ca eat there being that I think it’s easier for a movie to “make up” ground it lost on its 2nd weekend like A1 did than it’s 3rd like A2 will need to do, so that’s unfortunate. 

 

It's doubly unfortunate because it's happening on Christmas weekend where a lot of people who otherwise don't really go to the movies do so out of tradition, so if you lose a lot of that business due to external factors then a significant portion of it is probably just lost completely and won't be made back later.

Edited December 23, 2022 by hw64

[MovieMan89]

Do we know of any theaters closing early at all this week/weekend bc of the weather? I know some definitely did during the A1 OW snow storms. 

[RamblinRed]

18 minutes ago, Bruce said:

You Guys need to notice that Avatar is the only film which increase from yesterday

 

This is very true, but is also splitting hairs a little.

Of the major holdovers A2 is +2, WF is -2, VN is -4.

That doesn't look statistically significant to me. Just noise around an average. 

I think the +2 is a solid number. 

But it is still up in the air about legs and we likely won't have an answer on that for at least another week.

At this point i'd say it still looks like a blockbuster sequel performing like a blockbuster sequel - but maybe it could be more.

 

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

It's doubly unfortunate because it's happening on Christmas weekend where a lot of people who otherwise don't really go to the movies do so out of tradition, so if you lose a lot of that business due to external factors then a significant portion of it is probably just lost completely and won't be made back later.

The saving grace maybe being that you could say the same about NYD as well. So it may still have a chance to make up a lot of what it lost. I think the most unfortunate scenario would be if this were happening next weekend. A lot of that money would likely be lost. 

[MovieMan89]

Context on how weather affected A1 OW. The irony A2 is now up against a legitimate weather situation 

https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/61739-update-3-avatar-soars-despite-heavy-snowstorms