Weekend Thread - 03/31-04/02 | #FRI - D&D $15.3M, JW4 $7.9M, HOS - $2.1M, Scream VI $1.55M, Creed III $1.4M, Shazam $1.2M &1001 $700K

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

So this is the 2023 version of the Legend of Tarzan? That was my perception of the film's run at the time. 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Legend-of-Tarzan-The#tab=summary

That's actually a perfect comparison in the sense that it way outperformed expectations but still had a bloated budget to overcome. That said, D&D has reception and WOM to incentivize a sequel that Tarzan didn't.

[GOGODanca]

-	(2)	Scream VI	Paramount Pi…	$711,344	-3%	-36%	3,355	$212	$92,928,065	21
-	(3)	Shazam! Fury of the Gods	Warner Bros.	$580,000	-14%	-42%	4,071	$142	$48,874,953	14
-	(5)	65	Sony Pictures	$225,000	-23%	-44%	2,786	$81	$29,001,139	21
-	(-)	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Qua…	Walt Disney	$200,193	-12%	-36%	1,915	$105	$210,793,747	42
-	(-)	Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century…	$127,644	-8%	-24%	935	$137	$680,952,437	105

[vafrow]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

That's actually a perfect comparison in the sense that it way outperformed expectations but still had a bloated budget to overcome. That said, D&D has reception and WOM to incentivize a sequel that Tarzan didn't.

 

That's the key here. If a movie is badly received, you can't expect any growth from the first.

 

The other factor is that WB had a number of franchises in play at the time, that they probably didn't feel the need to force a franchise. Even though they were badly received, they were still gung ho on the DCEU. Fantastic Beasts was about to launch. Lego Movie gave them an animation division.

 

Paramount wants something to build around here. It gives them some franchises in case building exclusively around the 60 year old movie star jumping out of planes yields some negative outcomes.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

It’s not really pessimistic, we just all know the production budget alone was $151m. 

$350m? 
 

 

Excellent Thursday hold for Scream VI (-3%). Yay. 

 

That's the thing.  I'd love for this to work and go big.  But you can't say $40M DOM is great with that budget, especially since it's not over-indexing internationally.

 

Budget matters when you discuss movies.  And this was budgeted as a big time blockbuster movie.  In fact, for March, didn't it have the highest budget of all the releases, by at least $25M+?

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

Holland has barely had time to do anything else other than Spider-Man, it was a miracle that he was able to do Uncharted and Cherry. 

 

I personally think he should go back to his theatre roots and do a play, he would sell out a run in the West End or Broadway although TBH I'm not sure what role would suit him. 

 

With the lip sync battle, I'd say Singin' in the Rain's lead role would be perfect,,,

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

Shazam will lose more screens next week than Quantumania did thanks to Mario's arrival. Not sure whether it'll be enough to undershoot BvS.

 

It only dropped 42% week to week Thursday, so it's now in full stabilize mode.  Shazam 2 will easily cross $60M DOM, and now the only question is $70M...that might be a too huge a reach...

Edited March 31, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Felandria]

Nothing is doing very well in Orlando right now, because MegaCon is in town.

 

Several of the theaters are nearish the convention center, most of the DND shows are fairly empty, but so is Wick and everything else.

 

Dnd is doing better at Disney Springs, especially in Dolby and Dine In

[Spidey Freak]

4 hours ago, Ken said:

While we're at it, can we try Jem and the Holograms again?

 

Give it the Netflix She-Ra animated reboot treatment first, gain a new fandom, and then try again at live action theatrical.

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

Holland has barely had time to do anything else other than Spider-Man, it was a miracle that he was able to do Uncharted and Cherry. 

 

I personally think he should go back to his theatre roots and do a play, he would sell out a run in the West End or Broadway although TBH I'm not sure what role would suit him. 

 

Pippin!

[JustLurking]

Yeah I mean, it's not so much that D&D's BO is bad relative to expectations (it's above what I thought it would do for sure), but it is bad relative to its budget still. International numbers are poor as well, not just in Asia unfortunately, if Italy is indicative of what's to come in Europe the film is in for a bad time because it didn't even beat JW's week 2 on either wed or thu here, and it wasn't even close.

[keysersoze123]

I think Hasbros is playing a long game in expanding the reach of D&D brand as they are trying to monetize the brand. They are planning a digital version across platforms where they are looking for subscription revenue. So the goal of this movie is definitely not to mint money at BO. Since its very well received, there is good potential for backend revenue post theatrical release as well beyond expanding the brand. 

 

Otherwise it makes little sense in spending 151 million on something that is niche. During COVID era it did kind of make a comeback but ultimately its a shrinking niche. They need a blockbuster game on different platforms for it to be relevant. Only time will tell if this movie helped towards that goal. 

 

I think if it can gross 125m domestic, its a successful domestic BO release. I am not sure if it has that much potential in overseas markets. 

[AGlitchGnome]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 I think Hasbros is playing a long game in expanding the reach of D&D brand as they are trying to monetize the brand. 

 

Since its very well received, there is good potential for backend revenue post theatrical release as well beyond expanding the brand. 

I agree and Outside of the recent controversy about the OGL and their monetization practices, Merchandise is where I would say Hasbro makes most of its money from the DND brand. 

 

This movie already has tie in toys and other merch that came out weeks ago, so i personally expect it to make good money in all the ancillary markets including streaming.

 

If they could keep the budget for a sequel closer to $100m, i think its not impossible to see them use this as a franchise starter.

 

That being said, this move still needs to do fairly well over is theatrical run to warrant them considering the option IMO

[Eric Prime]

5 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

So this is the 2023 version of the Legend of Tarzan? That was my perception of the film's run at the time. 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Legend-of-Tarzan-The#tab=summary

There's a film that made a decent amount of cash but I genuinely forget it exists until somebody randomly brings it up. Which is weird, because that movie was a huge meme on the forums 7 years ago (so weird to think 2016 was 7 years ago lol). Never forget "The V".

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

5 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

Nah Power Rangers is one of those things you like as a kid but think is stupid as an adult so there is not much nostalgia outside of maybe the theme song and how hot the Pink Ranger was 

 

 

This is a very good take IMO. Power Rangers is an absolute sand trap. It is untappable nostalgia because the core product itself is bad, bordering on there not even being anything there to hang anything on.

 

I dearly hope the BO for D&D is enough to allow a franchise to develop. Saw it this evening and while not flawless it does every core element right for both D&D fans and non-fans to find things to really relish in it. It is perhaps missing a bit of special sauce, but it really does deserve the chance to grow.

 

It does though feel that that difference between a more frugal $100m budget and that actual $150m budget may just be an exponential factor.

 

But I'm very worried now that the inevitable movement for the next week is that Mario comes out and does a Spider-man No Way Home. Ie: It is utterly bang-average but inherent good-faith towards the property and there being **STUFF** that people prexistingly have decided they like makes people cream themselves over it and convince themselves it's amazing, and everything else gets blown out of the water in the blast radius. 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, AGlitchGnome said:

I agree and Outside of the recent controversy about the OGL and their monetization practices, Merchandise is where I would say Hasbro makes most of its money from the DND brand. 

 

This movie already has tie in toys and other merch that came out weeks ago, so i personally expect it to make good money in all the ancillary markets including streaming.

 

If they could keep the budget for a sequel closer to $100m, i think its not impossible to see them use this as a franchise starter.

 

That being said, this move still needs to do fairly well over is theatrical run to warrant them considering the option IMO

Yeah, I was looking at Hasbro's financials not that long ago and was shocked at how big a chunk of it was Wizards of the Coast. Which is more Magic than D&D, but even so, Hasbro is *dying* to grow and better monetize D&D. But the movie needs to either break out to GA or get good enough word of mouth that there's a sequel and *it* breaks out to justify part of the budget as marketing.

[Eric Prime]

8 hours ago, vafrow said:

I have no issue with Paramount spending this much on this property. We don't know if this will successfully launch a scalable franchise, but if this at all looked cheap, it would turn people off.

 

We need studios taking some swings on new, scalable franchise attempts. And putting the resources in to try and get the best possible product to start is the best way to do so.

 

 

I've really come to dislike the "they should have made it cheaper" argument. I know people say this with good intentions and wanting to see movies succeed, but cutting out 50M or whatever out of a movie really does hurt a film creatively and would have probably led to a whole action sequence being cut or the film just looking worse visually and aesthetically. Plus the timeline from greenlight to release is very long and arduous and studio execs don't have a crystal ball to know what's a hit or not. Studios have to sometimes take a risk and put a little extra money in something if they want bigger rewards. If Paramount execs in 2007 decided Transformers or whatever should be cut down 50M because it's an "unproven property", then I don't think we would have gotten any sequels.

[Ryan Reynolds]

https://deadline.com/2023/03/box-office-dungeons-dragons-1235314579/

 

Friday Midday: Right now, Paramount/eOne’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves is looking at $16M today, including those $5.6M previews for a $40M start. I’m told that won’t buckle.

Top five pics:

1.) Dungeons & Dragons (Par) 3,855 theaters, Fri $16M, 3-day $40M/Wk 1

2.) John Wick Chapter 4 (LG) 3,855 theaters, Fri $8.2M (-72%), 3-day $30M (-59%), Total $124.6M/Wk 2

3.) His Only Son (Angel) 1,920 theaters, Fri $2.1M, 3-day $5.8M/Wk 1

4.) Creed III (MGM) 2,827 theaters, Fri $1.5M, 3-day $5.2M (-37%), Total $148.7M/Wk 5

5.) Scream VI (Par) 3,106 theaters, Fri $1.4M (-42%), 3-day $4.6M (-44%), Total $97.5M/Wk 4

Edited March 31, 2023 by Ryan Reynolds

[Krissykins]

Good for them, Paramount did a good job with the heavy marketing and opening it up to people who have no idea about the games. Shame about the budget, but maybe they’ll find a way to continue it. 
 

I thought this could honestly have opened around $7-10m at some point a few months ago lol. 

[Cooper Legion]

That would be acceptable but still hoping for some deadline low-ball juice

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2023/03/box-office-dungeons-dragons-1235314579/

 

Top five pics:

1.) Dungeons & Dragons (Par) 3,855 theaters, Fri $16M, 3-day $30M/Wk 1

2.) John Wick Chapter 4 (LG) 3,855 theaters, Fri $8.2M (-72%), 3-day $30M (-59%), Total $124.6M/Wk 2

3.) His Only Son (Angel) 1,920 theaters, Fri $2.1M, 3-day $5.8M/Wk 1

4.) Creed III (MGM) 2,827 theaters, Fri $1.5M, 3-day $5.2M (-37%), Total $148.7M/Wk 5

5.) Scream VI (Par) 3,106 theaters, Fri $1.4M (-42%), 3-day $4.6M (-44%), Total $97.5M/Wk 4