THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[efialtes76]

20 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

55-61-52

+10% on Saturday and -15% on Easter Sunday?

I don't think so.

[Firepower]

Insane, people are nuts. Pixar needs an all-time masterpiece every time to do well at box office, otherwise they bomb or underperform. Laika flops very often despite consistent praise. Illumination doesn't need a masterpiece or even just good feature to do better than Pixar masterpiece, with 2.5 times lower budgets than Pixar too, truly magicians in terms of commercial appeal.

Edited April 8, 2023 by Firepower

[efialtes76]

Air-$5M.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

In addition to that: the well-received ones have all done gangbusters on the plus: Encanto, Luca and Turning Red were amongst the most streamed movies in 2021 and 2022. Honestly if both had longer windows or went theatrical with a strong marketing campaign, I think all would’ve gone 100m+, maybe 150-200m+ for some. 
 

i think Elemental will slightly underperform but I think Wish will be the big hit they want. Big Disney musical reminiscent of the 90s and SpiderVerse animation could be big, just need to really market it hard (ie 3 trailers and massive campaigns). Elio from the Coco co-director/writer Adrian Molina seems like a knockout hit but needs KFP4 to move. IO2 is IO2 and I think the 2024 WDAS is Zootopia 2.

Agree for sure...

 

I somehow forgot Encanto too... If released right now or this summer that would clean up. That's probably the most loved of the recent ones. Everyone I know with kids couldn't stop talking about how much their kids loved it and would sing a lot. Unfortunately, none of those people caught it in theaters as it went to streaming pretty quickly with the pandemic still raging a bit that November.

 

It's kind of miracle that No Way Home did so phenomenally well just a month later. No matter how that movie's viewed now in hindsight regarding its quality, it really brought people back to cinemas in a HUGE way which was awesome.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Insane, people are nuts. Pixar needs an all-time masterpiece every time to do well at box office, otherwise they bomb or underperform. Laika flops very often despite consistent praise. Illumination doesn't need a masterpiece or even just good feature to do better than Pixar masterpiece, with 2.5 times lower budgets than Pixar too, truly magicians in terms of commercial appeal.

 

As I've said before, the best quality movies don't tend to have the best box office result.  You just need a "good enough" movie that's an amazing crowd pleaser to really sky box office...

 

[filmnerdjamie]

16 minutes ago, YM! said:

So 210M five day then.

 

Around where I had it as I told @Shawn.

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by filmnerdjamie

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Insane, people are nuts. Pixar needs an all-time masterpiece every time to do well at box office, otherwise they bomb or underperform. Laika flops very often despite consistent praise. Illumination doesn't need a masterpiece or even just good feature to do better than Pixar masterpiece, with 2.5 times lower budgets than Pixar too, truly magicians in terms of commercial appeal.

That comes a lot with when you have built a name for yourself on quality. It’s why Marvel Studios has been struggling Phase 4-5 after the Infinity Saga whereas most competitors just need to be good. Same for Pixar/WDAS, being good enough works for stuff like Illumination, Sony, Dreamworks etc but there’s a pedigree that comes with it.

[thajdikt]

So even with pretty horrible legs, which I don´t think happens, 1B should be in the bank?

[Cheddar Please]

I still feel like this movie is likely to overperform estimates again in the next 2 days (Luis gave an actually good prediction for once, so I'll use his range of 200 to 220 as a good baseline). 

 

55-60-45 for 160m 3 day, 218m 5 day

[kayumanggi]

 

[Firepower]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

As I've said before, the best quality movies don't tend to have the best box office result.  You just need a "good enough" movie that's an amazing crowd pleaser to really sky box office...

 

I'm pretty sure Pixar masterpiece usually implies amazing crowd pleaser too, but they still have to work much harder for the same box office results or less.

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

That comes a lot with when you have built a name for yourself on quality. It’s why Marvel Studios has been struggling Phase 4-5 after the Infinity Saga whereas most competitors just need to be good. Same for Pixar/WDAS, being good enough works for stuff like Illumination, Sony, Dreamworks etc but there’s a pedigree that comes with it.

I see what you mean, there's definitely some truth to it, but it's still sad. Laika rarely does well even with great reception. Dreamworks also has to work much harder to get sky high results, unless it's Shrek.

[kayumanggi]

 

[OceanBlvd]

Global record for Mario . Who would’ve thunk?

Edited April 8, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[Kalo]

So.. with $195m 5-day opening. I just don't see any other film Beating Mario this year. It is getting a VERY good audience response and after seeing the film and really enjoying, I see kids LOVING it and Mario and Nintendo fans. this is going to have legs.

 

I really don't see finishing below $450m. and even has a shot at $500m imo. 

 

I don't see any other film hitting that mark this year. GOTG VOL 3 might do $400m or so. If The Little Mermaid were good and Disney had better goodwill from there live action remakes, it might have a shot at $400m. but I'm thinking it's not going to be very good. will probably grossing $300-$350m. there is going to be a lot of $200-$300m films this year. which hasn't happened in a while surprisingly.  

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Nice. Sub 50% drop this weekend despite Mario and losing 700+ locations. 

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, Godzilla said:

I didnt say Disney shouldn't make movies with messages but it shouldn't be your main priority as an entertainment company. It should be about making a product that families will enjoy first. 

 

Lmao Zootopia is nothing but one huge message and the movie is a classic.

 

Lightyear had a 2 second kiss and that's why you think Disney Animation had a bad year in 2022?

 

It had nothing to do with covid and Pixar going straight to video for two years straight?

 

DeSantis is wrong. There's nothing wrong with a movie like Zootopia telling kids diversity should be celebrated or having movies centered on minorities like Moana. 

 

I bet Zootopia 2, the Moana remake, Elemental and whatever so-called woke movies Disney puts out does 300% more than Lightyear assuming Iger doesn't lose his mind and send them all to streaming in 15 days or less.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by grey ghost

[thedude11]

34 minutes ago, YM! said:

I fail to see the difference in messaging between the recent output and the majority of Disney stuff 2010-2019 in animation. Can you imagine the scrutiny Zootopia and Coco would face today? But both would still be huge hits.

 

Quality is a main problem of why both Lightyear and Strange World failed (both failed to take off streaming either) because both were very boring and unimaginative but it had very little to do with the “go woke, go broke” mentality that doesn’t really exist despite a frustrated loud minority. Even on OW, Lightyear did well in the Midwest and red states, but underperformed on the East and West coast. I also think in addition to that when you have mediocre WOM and know that Disney will put it on the plus within 30-45 days that’ll eat at your legs. TLM is very likely to do 300m+ domestically. 

it feels less subtle and deft now and they use social issues as a marketing crutch. there’s a reason half of america has a sour taste in their mouth when they hear disney and it’s the own fault of the mouse

[Flip]

8 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

I still feel like this movie is likely to overperform estimates again in the next 2 days (Luis gave an actually good prediction for once, so I'll use his range of 200 to 220 as a good baseline). 

 

55-60-45 for 160m 3 day, 218m 5 day

Sunday is going to have a much larger decrease, if today is 60 tomorrow will be like 37

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Nice. Sub 50% drop this weekend despite Mario and losing 700+ locations. 

 

I say sub 30% drop.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Removing the rainbow elephant from Strange World wouldn't have helped it. In fact I'd argue it would've made it even worse, as frankly the representation is the only selling point that movie really had.