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Issac Newton

Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

By Issac Newton, in Numbers and Data

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, with some May presales being low, I'm starting to really think Spidey has a shot to win the whole summer DOM.  It has everything going for it, just like Mario did, and I think the schedule is setting up the same way for it to thrive.

 

Although, here's hoping it's really good...b/c it will need quality to win (not a problem on the 1st film)...

 

Demo for Spidey 1 from 2018 (from Deadline):

 

"As we mentioned previously, exit demos for Spider-Verse were 67% non-families, with men 25+ repping 41% of moviegoers, followed by men under 25 at 26%. Both enjoyed the movie, with men under 25 giving it 96% and men over 25 a 91% positive score. Boys under 12 outnumbered girls 70% to 30% in turnout. Diversity demos were 43% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 16% African-American and 15% Asian."

I tend to agree, but my one hesitation is Little Mermaid opening just a week prior. While both films will bring in adults and aren’t family-only films, the success of Gru, Puss and now Mario were due in part to a dearth of competition for at least 6 weeks before and after release. Or does LM suffer because people are holding out for the release the following week? 

In 2019, Disney released 7 of top 8 grossing movies, with the only exception being Far From Home, also in MCU. By end of summer, how far down the list are we going to have to go to find their first title, whether that be GOTG3 or LM (or even A2 if you just count calendar year gross)?

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
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50 minutes ago, M37 said:

I tend to agree, but my one hesitation is Little Mermaid opening just a week prior. While both films will bring in adults and aren’t family-only films, the success of Gru, Puss and now Mario were due in part to a dearth of competition for at least 6 weeks before and after release. Or does LM suffer because people are holding out for the release the following week? 

In 2019, Disney released 7 of top 8 grossing movies, with the only exception being Far From Home, also in MCU. By end of summer, how far down the list are we going to have to go to find their first title, whether that be GOTG3 or LM (or even A2 if you just count calendar year gross)?

 

 

I see LM/Spidey setting up as DnD/Mario...just to a lesser extent.  The wave of Mario interest ends up dwarfing Little Mermaid...and Spidey carries through June, with disappointments to follow in all 3 immediate follow on releases (sorry, I'm not feeling Flash right now...at least not at a summer-winning level)...

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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I see LM/Spidey setting up as DnD/Mario...just to a lesser extent.  The wave of Mario interest ends up dwarfing Little Mermaid...and Spidey carries through June, with disappointments to follow in all 3 immediate follow on releases (sorry, I'm not feeling Flash right now...at least not at a summer-winning level)...

One thing that could hurt Spider-verse is that it may never have premium screens it's whole run. I assume it'll some not all it's OW and that's it.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

One thing that could hurt Spider-verse is that it may never have premium screens it's whole run. I assume it'll some not all it's OW and that's it.

 

What else is opening that won't give Spidey the full premium set OW?  The Boogeyman is not gonna get PLF allocation over Spidey, and Memorial Day weekend openers will give way, especially if we see the DnD/Mario scenario replay...

 

I actually expect Transformers may struggle to take the full set from Spidey...it will obviously be given a good allocation, but possibly not a total one.

 

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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

What else is opening that won't give Spidey the full premium set OW?  The Boogeyman is not gonna get PLF allocation over Spidey, and Memorial Day weekend openers will give way, especially if we see the DnD/Mario scenario replay...

 

I actually expect Transformers may struggle to take the full set from Spidey...it will obviously be given a good allocation, but possibly not a total one.

 

I imagine Transformers will absolutely take them all. DnD isn't a Disney live action remake of a classic. Of course, not sure Little Mermaid will breakout but I still think it'll keep some of the premium screens with Spidey not getting them all. But, yeah, probably just has them OW. That's going to be a problem for a lot of releases this summer though. Most will only have premiums for a week. That's it.

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Napoleon Summer Tentpole

Napoleon

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Impressive for Evil Dead Rise even if falls short of a $20m opening, considering how other WB movies performed this year with a similar lack of marketing effort. This goes to show how strong the horror genre is, especially if the movie comes from a recognizable brand and are positively reviewed.

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

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Nice start for Evil Dead Rise. High teens seems likely and is a win considering the budget, it was originally for streaming and the scaled back, cheaper marketing campaign. 
 

Seeing it in an hour. Here’s the new official poster:

 

 

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