GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[TigerPaw]

2 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

1. Dune 2: $750M

2. The Marvels: $500M

3. Hunger Games: $450M

Issue with Hunger Games would be tue distribution of Lionsgates; where we may not know the strength of many foreign distributors. I.e. For John Wick 4, it was not shown in 1/3 of theaters in Taiwan as well as in Singapore due to respective local distributor disagreement with local theaters, plus in Singapore - there was not a single IMAX showing. Donnie Yen's star power helped with the numbers so JW4 still beat all other 3 (despite theater count disadvantages). 

With so many releases in Nov, studio distributors with subsidiaries overseas (i.e. WB and Disney) would have strong advantage over screen and theater count.. So Hunger Game overseas gross will likely not be that strong.

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, OceanBlvd said:

I think Dune 2 will tank because now people know it’s not good. The first movie was the first movie. People don’t know what to expect, so they are willing to give it a chance. They jumped on it for the novelty of it all. The potential for a huge franchise starter, which did not happen. Not the second time me fears.

Huh???? What are you on about? Audiences liked the movie. It's why it got a sequel.

[thajdikt]

Dune was very much well received, part 2 will be bigger, only question is how much

[OceanBlvd]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Huh???? What are you on about? Audiences liked the movie. It's why it got a sequel.

I don’t know anyone who likes it outside of Film Twitter. Same with Margot Robbie/Ryan Gosling. “Barbie” would be another interesting watch to see if Twitter hype materializes to anything.

 

Also, I think Mermaid will do well despite Twitter and certain groups being against it.

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, OceanBlvd said:

I don’t know anyone who likes it outside of Film Twitter.

Well, that doesnt matter. We know for a fact that general audiences did like it based on various pieces of data (including the boxoffice numbers itself).

[Brainbug]

While this OW is not catastrophe-level for Guardians (aka under 100M), its very disappointing in the context of Vol 2's numbers and Marvels overall trajectory. It shows imo that even a quality product isnt safe from the "suphero fatigue" so to speak, like others have mentioned. A ton of people who flocked to literally every Marvel movie pre-Endgame are seemingly lost for the foreseeable future, if not forever.

 

And honestly, its Marvels and Disneys faults. They can only blame themselves. Phase 4 - despite something like No Way Home - overall was a big, steep decline in quality compared to everything that came before and worst of all, it didnt feel connected. It didnt have an easy-to-understand path the movies followed and Ant-Man 3 clearly failed to estrablish that new path for Phase 5, aka the new villain. Its a huge mess.

 

I too think The Marvels is pretty much doomed this November. Who exactly is hyped for it? Captain Marvels big success is, in my opinion, much much more Endgame-related than Captain Marvel-related. Ms. Marvel is a show that very few people watched or cared about. What is the hook here? I dont see it and thats why i think it will fall short of even a 80M OW, i see it more in the 60Mish range now.

 

Heres hoping that GOTG develops great legs because seemingly, audiences really like it and good movies should always be rewarded with success in an ideal world. But the MCU is in a really dire state now.

[DTP]

For post-Endgame MCU, I've gone to the movies to see NWH, DS2, and BP2. I'd rate them all good (but not great) movies that were fun to watch on the big screen.

 

I skipped Thor due to reviews/WOM and had no interest in seeing AM3. 

 

I'll probably go see GOTG3 next weekend. 

[wildphantom]

This should have done close to what Vol 2 opened with, but the reception of the recent films has resulted in a hit, no question. 
 

That doesn’t mean WOM can’t have it leg it out, but it will create better good will for the MCU going forward once people do catch up with it.  So regardless of how it does itself, its return to form will have an impact on forthcoming films you’d have thought. 

[Maggie]

Will GOTG3 make it to 300M domestic with this opening?

[thajdikt]

6 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Will GOTG3 make it to 300M domestic with this opening?

Unlikely, but small chance I would say. Would need to get 115 at least imo

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

People aren't really mentioning the 65/35 gender gap but i think theres a clue here.

 

Some of the MCU success was that compared to other iterations of superhero franchises it managed universal pull.

 

65/35 is overt "boy movie" territory perceptually.

 

That might be a Gunn thing in that he has excellent reception but the appeal here may be among a *slighty* more niche market or it may be that the wider culture aroumd the MCU (including perhaps that it simply is less cool) is convalescing.

 

Either way, that 65/35 is an eye openee IMO. 

 

OS seems like the potential soother here. Seems like better performances there may salve the DOM narrative.

 

Agree that 700m ww is the benchmark here for okay v disappointment. 750 would be good/solid and 800m a big success at this point. The billion references (mostly not on here but on youtube and the like) were always silly and never were going to help this film.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, OceanBlvd said:

I don’t know anyone who likes it outside of Film Twitter. Same with Margot Robbie/Ryan Gosling. “Barbie” would be another interesting watch to see if Twitter hype materializes to anything.

 

Also, I think Mermaid will do well despite Twitter being against it.

 

It's a slow building 2.5h grim sci fi film that is effectively nothing but a buildup for the second film and got an A- cinemascore with great scores on literally every aggregator. Perhaps it is your circle who is missing something and not the opposite.

[reddevil19]

8 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

OS seems like the potential soother here. Seems like better performances there may salve the DOM narrative.

The one caveat is that Fast X is coming and could potentially kill it overseas. Internationally that has the potential to have a huge impact on GOTG3, which isn't really a worry domestically. It definitely will be a movie where we can't go by OW alone.

[thajdikt]

10 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

People aren't really mentioning the 65/35 gender gap but i think theres a clue here.

 

Funny enough, this was what deadline wrote in the article in Tuesday:

 

"While the pic is hot with all demos, we hear that GOTG leans a tad female given main star Chris Pratt."

 

Another certified deadline moment

[Mr Roark]

58 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

This should have done close to what Vol 2 opened with, but the reception of the recent films has resulted in a hit, no question. 
 

That doesn’t mean WOM can’t have it leg it out, but it will create better good will for the MCU going forward once people do catch up with it.  So regardless of how it does itself, its return to form will have an impact on forthcoming films you’d have thought. 

GotG3 won’t change the tide. It’s a self contained unique product made by a guy that already left the MCU for good. The positive impact towards the overall MCU state is not gonna be that relevant.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, OceanBlvd said:

Also, I think Mermaid will do well despite Twitter and certain groups being against it.

 

Twitter, Film or otherwise, is no good measure of how GA feels. Never was never will be. LM is going to do well cause it's a breezy family entertainment/date movie. I don't care about it but I'm taking my youngest sister cause she wants to see it and my teenage sisters are going with their friends cause they fans of ChloexHalle. I'm just giving an example how a movie sells tickets - some demos want to see it some demos see it as companions. That's 4 tickets sold in my household  vs none for Vol 3 for example (certain type of cruelty is a bridge too far for us though I respect that Gunn tackled it). 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

GotG3 won’t change the tide. It’s a self contained unique product made by a guy that already left the MCU for good. The positive impact towards the overall MCU state is not gonna be that relevant.

I do think this year will restore at least some goodwill, since early word on both Secret Invasion and Loki Season 2 is very encouraging. 3 great projects in a row could do a lot. The Marvels is still a wildcard as it seems to be the partial return of the divisive Phase 4 jank, and a somewhat troubled production.

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Twitter, Film or otherwise, is no good measure of how GA feels. Never was never will be. LM is going to do well cause it's a breezy family entertainment/date movie. I don't care about it but I'm taking my youngest sister cause she wants to see it and my teenage sisters are going with their friends cause they fans of ChloexHalle. I'm just giving an example how a movie sells tickets - some demos want to see it some demos see it as companions. That's 4 tickets sold in my household  vs none for Vol 3 for example (certain type of cruelty is a bridge too far for us though I respect that Gunn tackled it). 

 

So, what you're saying is...you anecdotally also display the gender and family gap of GOTG 3:)...

 

The gender and family gaps, if they stay so wide this weekend, would explain a $115M OW vs a $140M OW...

 

Right now, GOTG is at 65-35 and 13% families - GOTG 2 was 57-44 with 19% families and 9% teens (teens were not broken out for 3, so I'll ignore them).

 

GOTG 2 female box office OW ($146.5M * .44) = $64.5M

GOTG 3 female box office (based on 35% and $115M OW) - $40.25

 

Difference of $24.25M or what we're looking at - or about $140M if they had just brought back #2's full female audience.

 

To get to GOTG 2 exact open...add the family difference, and you're there...

 

 

[Last Man Standing]

Twitter is not against Little Mermaid what is bro talking about?😭😭

[Torontofan]

I think little mermaid won't do that well simply cause Disney fails to make crowdpleasing films anymore...