Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[Eduardo]

All experts here get a shot on the foot. Transformer could be an exception, but I see the same pattern with The Flash. 

[excel1]

So Transformers w/ much worse presales, reviews, and general buzz may do mid 60s, but we think Flash is going to same ball park?

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

I definitely agree there's no reason for RotB to be $200m (although there are lots of Bots with lots of screentime, so I can see how it came in over Bumblebee), but I don't think this kind of stuff is nearly as black-and-white as what you're boiling it down to. Especially when you consider that Hasbro is helping fund Transformers, and part of their success metric is how it moves toy sales, which a stronger-than-expected performance at the domestic BO will definitely do. Idk. Paramount isn't drowning in viable IP in the way Disney and Universal are. If Transformers shows even small signs of life, it's something they have to consider.

 

Transformers and TLM will benefit bigly from toy sales but toys are totally missing from the online narrative.

[TMP]

7 minutes ago, excel1 said:

So Transformers w/ much worse presales, reviews, and general buzz may do mid 60s, but we think Flash is going to same ball park?

Different kinds of movies. CBMs are always heavier on pre-sales than something like TF, and that franchise is also critic-proof in a way that DC really isn't

[WorkingonaName]

The Toys factor. 

[Ohana]

8 minutes ago, excel1 said:

So Transformers w/ much worse presales, reviews, and general buzz may do mid 60s, but we think Flash is going to same ball park?

Yeah, it doesn't make any sense...
I refuse to believe The Flash is going to have a Black Adam OW.

[TMP]

TF going so high makes me think The Meg 2 could actually do pretty well...

[grey ghost]

Three movies in a row with black and/or latino leads that underperform OS.

 

Coincidence?

[grey ghost]

I didn't realize TLK opened to only 44.6m.

 

[Ohana]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Different kinds of movies. CBMs are always heavier on pre-sales than something like TF, and that franchise is also critic-proof in a way that DC really isn't

Things changed tho, maybe the pandemic made people get used to the fact that they can walk to the cinema without pre-ordering tickets.
The Hype around The Flash is far above anything that Black Adam had.

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, Ohana said:

Things changed tho, maybe the pandemic made people get used to the fact that they can walk to the cinema without pre-ordering tickets.
The Hype around The Flash is far above anything that Black Adam had.

Maybe. We'll see. I was pretty high on Flash's box office potential, less so after the RT score came. If anything, I wonder if the Latino lead for TF had anything to do with the late surcharge, which would be great news for another DC film with Blue Beetle. But I kind of struggle to see that even hitting $70m dom so we'll see there too.

[Starphanluke]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I didn't realize TLK opened to only 44.6m.

 

Yeah, though it was a Wednesday opener. I think 5-day was something around $65m

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I didn't realize TLK opened to only 44.6m.

 

68M 5 day OW. What a disaster that was.

[Starphanluke]

Another interesting factor to consider here (if the weekend does indeed play out with Transformers over-performing relative to expectations): the live action Transformers movies are weirdly popular on TikTok. Probably because the main demographic there are coming into an age where they're nostalgic for the early Bay movies. Wonder if it's a group that's hard to track.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

I definitely agree there's no reason for RotB to be $200m (although there are lots of Bots with lots of screentime, so I can see how it came in over Bumblebee), but I don't think this kind of stuff is nearly as black-and-white as what you're boiling it down to. Especially when you consider that Hasbro is helping fund Transformers, and part of their success metric is how it moves toy sales, which a stronger-than-expected performance at the domestic BO will definitely do. Idk. Paramount isn't drowning in viable IP in the way Disney and Universal are. If Transformers shows even small signs of life, it's something they have to consider.

 

Oh I agree that some movies are just big trailers for toy lines (Hasbro, Disney, now Mattel) but unreasonable budgeting is unreasonable even if toy sales cover the loss at the boxoffice. With the right budget they could have both. 

[grey ghost]

What's the record for most opening movies in a row with over 60 or 50m?

[M37]

22 minutes ago, excel1 said:

So Transformers w/ much worse presales, reviews, and general buzz may do mid 60s, but we think Flash is going to same ball park?

Said this in this the tracking thread, but I think TF is benefiting from being an almost entirely disposable popcorn action flick, pulling in casuals who may have skipped other releases

 

As a semi-reboot, there’s no long thread or multiversal story line to follow (GOTG3, ATSV, even Fast X), nor any  social controversy (TLM) - it’s just kinda … there, to blow 2+ hours on and not have to think very hard. That’s why I think the “it’s not terrible” reviews for TF moved the needle for OW far more than Flash’s better reviews did: there’s just more baggage, headwinds working against it 

[charlie Jatinder]

Rarely do we see franchises reversing the declining trend, that too in US, Transformers seems like will be doing it. It's a win in my eyes. Paramount keeps winning Post COVID.

[wildphantom]

Wow that’s great for Transformers. The internet told me the franchise was over mere days ago. 

[Torontofan]

There is a lot of nostalgia from younger people over the transformers movies.

 

Optimus Prime at the end of the movie looking into the Sunset, Giving some random inspiring speech and Linkin Park singing "What I've donnnnneeeee"

Good times, good times 😅

 

I rewatched the first movie and it still holds up as a great summer blockbuster film. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Torontofan