The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

That seems like a great jump for Oppenheimer and it’s been on a strong upward trajectory against Fast X for the last few weeks, could it target a $70M weekend?

 

Nah. It will have a sub-7 multiplier. 

[ringedmortality]

22 minutes ago, XXR Electric Touch said:

 

Nah. It will have a sub-7 multiplier. 

 

y

[ZeroHour]

Will Haunted Mansion over index in Orlando because of the Disney World factor?

[M37]

15 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

y

Because unlike Indy, Oppenheimer also appeals to the younger/metro audience that comes out on Thursday nights. Anything in summer that gets much above a 7x has to draw in families or an older-skewing audience. I wouldn’t say for sure sub-7x, but likely won’t be close to Dunkirk’s 9x either 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, ZeroHour said:

Will Haunted Mansion over index in Orlando because of the Disney World factor?

Likely. Let's wait and see what other trackers data is showing 

[ringedmortality]

It kind of sucks that Haunted Mansion keep decreasing among your Little Mermaid comp

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

That seems like a great jump for Oppenheimer and it’s been on a strong upward trajectory against Fast X for the last few weeks, could it target a $70M weekend?

Oppenheimer aint doing 70 million. People need to dial it down with that stuff. 

[Landon1195]

https://twitter.com/EmpireCityBO/status/1677880153291079680

Edited July 9, 2023 by Landon1195

[Landon1195]

Just now, Landon1195 said:

https://twitter.com/EmpireCityBO/status/1677880153291079680

EmpireCity says Barbie presales are higher than anything since Wakanda Forever. 

[Porthos]

On 7/8/2023 at 12:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	57	7688	8888	1200	13.50%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	232
Total Seats Sold Today	68

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	44.33		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	10.94%		7.98m
BP2	16.55		190	7250		2/296	29904/37154	19.51%		16800	7.14%		4.63m
FX	109.19		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	29.11%		8.19m
Indy 5	91.12		59	1317		0/128	18924/20241	6.51%		4767	25.17%		6.56m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       249/3198  [7.79% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 1.08% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 514/776 [+18 tickets] [42.83% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    485/4508 [+41 tickets] [40.42% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           201/3604 [+9 tickets] [16.75% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	57	7511	8834	1323	14.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

123

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.05		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	12.06%		8.47m
BP2	17.84		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	7.88%		5.00m
FX	113.27		69	1168		0/178	26545/27713	4.21%		4122	32.10%		8.50m
Indy 5	97.78		36	1353		0/128	18888/20241	6.68%		4767	27.75%		7.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       273/3144  [8.68% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.98% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 557/776 [+43 tickets] [42.10% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    558/4508 [+73 tickets] [42.18% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           208/3550 [+7 tickets] [15.72% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeaaaaaah, I'd say those First Impressions (can one even call them social media reactions???) helped.

 

Just a bit.

[Porthos]

On 7/8/2023 at 12:39 AM, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	99	10577	12713	2136	16.80%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	101
Total Seats Sold Today	147

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	49.49		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	18.62%		9.53m
JWD	78.91		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	19.48%		14.20m
BA	219.08		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	47.53%		16.43m
Ava 2	72.48		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	23.77%		12.32m
Scream 6	303.41		48	704		0/78	9156/9860	7.14%		3134	68.16%		17.29m
Wick 4	173.52		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	39.21%		15.44m
FX	194.36		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	51.82%		14.58m
TLM	131.53		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	32.56%		13.55m
AtSV	103.24		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	21.92%		17.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     414/4252  [9.74% sold]
Matinee:    128/1757  [7.29% | 5.99% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:     362/506 [71.54% sold] [+2 tickets sold]
Thr:    1774/12207 [14.53% sold] [+145 tickets sold]

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	99	10413	12713	2300	18.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

164

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	49.86		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	20.05%		9.60m
JWD	81.79		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	20.97%		14.72m
BA	223.30		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	51.18%		16.75m
Ava 2	73.39		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	25.60%		12.48m
Scream 6	313.78		29	733		0/78	9127/9860	7.43%		3134	73.39%		17.89m
Wick 4	179.13		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	42.22%		15.94m
FX	196.92		69	1168		0/178	26545/27713	4.21%		4122	55.80%		14.77m
TLM	132.64		110	1734		0/154	20987/22721	7.63%		6561	35.06%		13.66m
AtSV	106.78		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	23.60%		18.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     460/4252  [10.82% sold]
Matinee:    140/1757  [7.97% | 6.09% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:      382/506 [75.49% sold] [+20 tickets sold]
Thr:    1918/12207 [15.71% sold] [+144 tickets sold]

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	57	7511	8834	1323	14.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

123

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.05		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	12.06%		8.47m
BP2	17.84		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	7.88%		5.00m
FX	113.27		69	1168		0/178	26545/27713	4.21%		4122	32.10%		8.50m
Indy 5	97.78		36	1353		0/128	18888/20241	6.68%		4767	27.75%		7.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       273/3144  [8.68% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.98% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 557/776 [+43 tickets] [42.10% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    558/4508 [+73 tickets] [42.18% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           208/3550 [+7 tickets] [15.72% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeaaaaaah, I'd say those First Impressions (can one even call them social media reactions???) helped.

 

Just a bit.

Are there any Large IMAX screens or are PLF non IMAX like xD and RPX

[Porthos]

On 7/8/2023 at 12:40 AM, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	176	23860	26190	2330	8.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	1175
Total Seats Sold Today	319

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	136.82		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	62.35%		8.48m
JWD	44.23		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	21.25%		7.96m
Ava 2	45.74		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	25.93%		7.78m
Wick 4	101.08		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	42.77%		9.00m
FX	129.88		159	1794		0/179	26350/28144	6.37%		4122	56.53%		9.74m
Indy 5	102.78		230	2267		0/134	18442/20709	10.95%		4973	46.85%		7.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp WILL come down when sales are final.

Regal:          427/8767  [4.87% sold]
Matinee:        85/1992  [4.27% | 3.65% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    475/6568  [7.23% | 20.39% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          144/456 [31.58% sold] [+23 tickets]
Mon:       739/2288 [32.30% sold] [+71 tickets]
Tue:    1442/23383 [6.17% sold] [+223 tickets]

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	176	23488	26190	2702	10.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

372

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	143.65		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	72.30%		8.91m
JWD	44.57		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	24.64%		8.02m
Ava 2	48.71		453	5547		0/277	27377/32924	16.85%		8986	30.07%		8.28m
Wick 4	102.08		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	49.60%		9.08m
FX	131.42		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	65.55%		9.86m
Indy 5	107.01		258	2525		0/158	21009/23534	10.73%		4973	54.33%		7.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp WILL come down when sales are final.

Regal:          521/8767  [5.94% sold]
Matinee:        95/1992  [4.77% | 3.52% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    500/8706  [5.74% | 18.50% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          182/456 [39.91% sold] [+38 tickets]
Mon:       837/2288 [36.58% sold] [+98 tickets]
Tue:    1678/23383 [7.18% sold] [+236 tickets]

 

===

 

Was either flat or rose against all comps (and even the flat ones rose a tiny tick in all three cases). 

 

Not too bad for a T-3 Sat/Mon showdown.  Not too bad at all.

 

Of course, the EA ticket sales provided a yuge boost, but sales are sales.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are there any Large IMAX screens or are PLF non IMAX like xD and RPX

 

The 70mm print is a 15/70mm* print on a TrueIMAX screen.  Literally a One Screen Theater.

*Doing some digging after the comments from @Inceptionzq  I found out that Oppenheimer also has a 5/70mm print in circulation, which appears to be what is at their locations.

 

Esquire IMAX, for those curious, which is the indie TrueIMAX theater I've referenced off and on.

 

Everything else, including the other two IMAX theaters in town are either FauxIMAX (in the case of the two Regals) or various versions of XD/RPX/4DX/"Giant Screen"*

* CinemaWest's version of PLFs

 

Some of them are bigger than others, and some have various bells and whistles like THX, but the Esquire IMAX is the only one in town that would be considered a "real" IMAX screen.  Amongst the movie snobs, that is.

 

 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-4 Milton, ON

 

Not slowing down at all. This is clearly a film that's likely over indexing in my area, even though I wouldn't guess that it's the type of film to do that here. Demographics are young families. It also might be the timing. With Canadian schools in session right up until end of June, people only now are in full summer mode.

 

2.429x of Fast X for $18.2M

4.636x of T:ROTB for $40.8M

10.200x of Indy 5 for $73.4M

0.703x of ATSV for $12.4M

2.684x of Flash for $26.0M

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-3 Milton, ON

 

Trends continue. I'm still baffled by this performance, but, the last month has been so disappointing, that everything looks good next to comps I guess.

 

It's trending down on ATSV, which was really strong down the stretch.

 

The out of whack Indy comparison still surprises me. To me, they should be similar performing movies, but it's clear MI, at least in my area, succeeded in getting to different demographics.

 

2.327x of Fast X for $17.5M

5.261x of T:ROTB for $46.3M

12.100x of Indy 5 for $87.1M

0.654x of ATSV for $11.3M

2.630x of Flash for $25.5M

[vafrow]

On 7/6/2023 at 7:06 AM, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-15, Milton, ON

 

The issue of not having good comps continues. At 31 tickets sold, it's outpacing everything I have except ATSV. It's even doing better than MI7 at the same point in time. That film has done really well though in the last 4-5 days, so, we'll need to see if Barbie can maintain that pace.

 

Sales are definitely coming in groups. The big shift in sales in this update comes from a block of 12 for a late show.

 

10.333x of Indy 5 for $74.4M

2.214x of T:ROTB for $22.8M

0.620x of ATSV for $10.8M

2.214x of Flash for $21.5M

1.712x of MI7 for ???

 

Barbie T-12, Milton, ON

 

Sales remain steady, although no change in last day. Sales at 44. Interestingly, late show has as many sold as the 7:00pm show. Rare to see that in general. It's driven by a large group in the late show, so, I'd expect the 7pm show to see more growth.

 

8.800x of Indy 5 for $63.4M

4.000x of T:ROTB for $36.2M

0.620x of ATSV for $10.8M

2.316x of Flash for $22.5M

1.692x of MI7 for ???

Edited July 11, 2023 by vafrow

[M37]

6 hours ago, Landon1195 said:

EmpireCity says Barbie presales are higher than anything since Wakanda Forever. 

Based on data we have, find that difficult to believe. For Thursday (as of last Alpha update), Barbie is still way below GOTG3 & AMWQ, and slightly behind ATSV and Avatar 2 in ticket sales (and way behind A2 in $ value because of PLF & 3D)

 

Now the weekend sales are also very strong, so maybe its closer to GOTG3/AMWQ in overall presales, but again A2 also had strong weekend sales and the PLF upcharges. Beating all of them? Nah. However, expectation is that it should pace not like an MCU tentpole, more like the latter 2 titles, and could wind up ahead of all of them in Thursday and/or total presales by the time we get to opening Thursday

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah, I very much doubt it has the highest true th this year but wed+th combining for highest yearly previews is at least plausible, perhaps liekly. Being firmly behind but at least in the ballpark of half+ the mcu films at this point is very promising when you consider how those come into the final week with big volume and then have among the lowest % rises.

Edited July 9, 2023 by LegionGPT

[vale9001]

45 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

https://twitter.com/EmpireCityBO/status/1677880153291079680?t=5m_jKxpG295nVTfI3innww&s=19

 

oh

well usually he doesn't lie about numbers.

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by vale9001

[Cooper Legion]

He’s making a prediction that the OW will be biggest since WF based on the current PS stock&flow. He’s not saying that the current PS level is above every movie since WF (see @M37’s posts for more on that).