The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

Porthos · July 10, 2023

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Barbie T-11 Preview Update

I know much has been made of Barbenheimer, and while it was never officially a duel, comparing those two films at this point feels like the 1973 Belmont, where we just passed the mile marker, and Big Red - er Pink? - is "moving like a tremendous machine." Still rising against pretty much every comp, three weeks after tickets went on sale, the only question left is how special of a Thursday and OW we're about to see.

It's really difficult to overstate just how strong the pace has been at this point, but here's some indication, the rolling 7-day growth rate for all the major release for which I have Alpha data. The only films even close to Barbie's pace (growth rate) at the T-14/12 checkpoint are Avatar 2 and Little Mermaid, and Barbie has basically matched the former in total sales ($17M preview, but with PLF & 3D) and doubled the latter ($10.3M)

Unfortunately, being an outlier makes it difficult to comp, so four potential ways its could finish:

Somehow Barbie can maintain this elevated pace through the finish, and if there are enough seats, we'd be looking at 400K+ total tickets for Alpha and $20M+ previews

If it falls back a bit, in line with similar female drive Mermaid, then still have 350K+ tickets, and a preview in high teens

Has more of a blended audience, atypical fans who buy early but not right away, plus a GA draw at the end, and TGM/ATSV are the sorta guide, gets to 300K+ tickets, mid teens preview value

Due to audience skew and/or limited capacity, finishes more like Avatar 2, with a weaker final week and winds up below 300K and low teens

That puts the preview range right now at something like $13M-$20M+, but probably need to wait until T-7 to be able to narrow down based on pace

This post touches on it by implication, but one thing I don't think is getting enough discussion here is that Barbie will have an EXTREMELY low PLF percentage, especially compared to the Big Boys out there that this film is starting to be compared against.

In many ways it's the mirror image of Avatar 2 when it comes to how we should probably think about it (Oppenheimer just ain't in the same league, though it's obviously why Barbie has so few PLFs) and how to adjust the ATP when it comes to pre-sales.

As I check about it doesn't appear that Barbie's EA showings are at an inflated ticket price, at least locally, so that's not gonna really help all that much aside from some isolated examples. Is gonna have Dolby over at AMC from what I understand and it is gonna benefit from DBOX seating as it does appear from what I can tell that Oppenheimer doesn't have a DBOX print in circulation.

(mind, Barbie won't have an exclusive stranglehold on DBOX auditoriums as some/many of them are also at the PLF screen of a location, which Oppenheimer has likely grabbed)

Will also benefit from the few locations that have multiple PLF screens, as they can then split between the two main films that weekend.

Still, as I look, currently PLF showings (including DBOX) account for 4.88% of all sales locally for Barbie.

Which is incredibly low.

I can't recall the last double digits in previews film which had such a low PLF footprint, really, so it makes it hard to look for comps. But it is something to keep in mind.

tl;dr: While the hit to the comp won't be nearly as bad as the one that's gonna hit MI7, Barbie is also gonna have a reduction in its comp at final bell. It's getting masked right now due to the sheer inflationary burst it currently has, but is something we should think more about the closer to release.

katnisscinnaplex · July 10, 2023

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I can't recall the last double digits in previews film which had such a low PLF footprint, really, so it makes it hard to look for comps. But it is something to keep in mind.

The biggest things I see in my showtimes reports are horror (Candyman, Halloween Kills, Black Phone, M3GAN were all very low PLF) and Space Jam (no previews though). I don't think any of these will be helpful from a sales perspective, but if anyone has ATPs from those it could be helpful. M3GAN is the only one I have at $12.07 in my areas, where most bigger movies are around $14-$15 (Avatar 2 ended at $15.69).

Squire · July 10, 2023

1 hour ago, Eric Bunny said:

Quorum Updates

Barbie T-11: 54.86% Awareness

Final Awareness: 47% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 90M, 11% chance of 100M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

Oppenheimer T-11: 36.76% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Original - High Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Pre-sale numbers for Barbie and Oppenheimer are certainly casting some doubt on the Quorum’s credibility.

vale9001 · July 10, 2023

today an heavy day for barbie promotion between a world premiere full of stars on the red carpet + early reactions + the billie eilish trailer + I'm just Ken.

Curious about the effect of all of these on the sales.

titanic2187 · July 10, 2023

Barbie having extremely low PLF % for a mega-hit is definitely a great moment for Industry. The non-PLF hall has been, at least from what I observe, underutilised post-Covid. Barbie show us non-PLF driven movie can still thrive and deliver huge sales.

Barbieheimer week is my most anticipated weekend of the year. It is a week where domestic box office deliver not one, BUT TWO! non-action/VFX packed BO hit. And this is CINEMA!

filmlover · July 10, 2023

Not exactly tracking per say but:

lmao the prophecy of this weekend being an event for the ages is becoming a reality.

rehpyc · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 11:44 AM, rehpyc said:

T-3 MI7

* All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

JWD: 6.49M

JW4: 8.53M

AtSV: 8.07M

FX: 9.03M

Flash: 7.28M

IJ: 6.64M

Had to re-check Flash with being flat.. it moved down $73 🤨

T-2 MI7

* All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

JWD: 6.78M

JW4: 8.51M

AtSV: 7.93M

FX: 9.12M

Flash: 7.48M

IJ: 7.01M

Currently it's just a tad behind where Indiana Jones was at T-2, with a very similar ATP, but T-2 sales came in about 30% higher.. so here's hoping the pace keeps up. All comps but Fast X are currently targeting about 8M.

BestPicturePlutoNash · July 10, 2023

The AMCs nearby me in NYC have added additional showtimes for Barbie in Dolby. The movie was only limited to one per day at most locations but now an extra nighttime show has been added.

TalismanRing · July 10, 2023

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I extrapolate based on data I understand which is MTC1. May be @M37 or @across the Jat verse can provide a more accurate read overall. I am just not impressed with overall or T-2 pace. It's mess due to weird release with 2 days of "early" shows.

At my local Regal I just checked and the Monday 7pm show is 149/320 tickets sold and Tues is 60/2303

That means day of walk ups, a short supply of serious diehards or public ticket buying schizophrenia :circles:

JayPrimetown · July 10, 2023

50 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Not exactly tracking per say but:

lmao the prophecy of this weekend being an event for the ages is becoming a reality.

I'm curious if we see studios start to double book large release dates again. Is this the outlier of outliers or is there an actual belief that counterprogramming could potentially benefit both films with a buzz around the weekend.

abracadabra1998 · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 4:11 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Mission Impossible 7 (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1, T-0 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters 142 255 1778 24637 7.22
Monday EA: 7 theaters 7 37 568 1372 41.4
Sunday EA: 4 theaters 4 90 182 698 26.07
TOTALS: 153 382 2528 26707 9.47

Comps:

Total- 1.48x Indiana Jones: $10.63 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 1.04x Indiana Jones: $7.48 Million

Average- 1.26x Indiana Jones = $9.05 Million

Pretty flat against Indy here. Oppy, Barbie, and Haunted Mansion updates coming later tonight

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

Mission Impossible (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	142	512	2290	24637	9.29
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	168	736	1372	53.64
TOTALS:	149	680	3026	26009	11.63

Growth rate below for JUST Tuesday sales:

Growth Rate (%):

1-Day:	28.8

3-Day:	69.13

Comps (Unadjusted):

Just Tuesday Previews- 1.16x Indiana Jones: $8.32 Million

Tremendous day of sales here, Monday EA expectedly strong, but Tuesday was even stronger. The Indiana Jones comp is likely ending at $9 million for just Tuesday. Clearly over performing here.

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 2:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 279 2036 13.70%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 391 2479 15.77%

Sunday: 412(+276)

Monday: 796(+125)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1286 254 22980 5.60% 13 114

0.677 AtSV T-2 11.75M
0.465 Avatar 2 T-2 7.90M
0.568 JW Dominion T-2 10.23M
1.420 NTTD T-2 8.85M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

322

2036

15.82%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

469

2479

18.92%

Sunday: 412

Monday: 1030(+234)

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1569	283	22980	6.83%	13	114

0.647	AtSV T-1	11.22M
0.509	Avatar 2 T-1	8.66M
0.597	JW Dominion T-1	10.75M
1.339	NTTD T-1	8.34M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 2:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-2 Tuesday 149 Showings 4796 +952 22317 ATP: 8.65
0.456 AtSV T-2 7.91M
0.511 Avatar 2 T-2 8.68M
0.488 JW Dominion T-2 8.78M

T-3 Wednesday 191 Showings 2494 +623 29137 ATP: 16.49

T-4 Thursday 159 Showings 1895 +456 25512 ATP: 16.32

T-5 Friday 144 Showings 2630 +567 23256 ATP: 16.75
0.345 AtSV T-5 11.89M
0.273 Avatar 2 T-5 9.87M
0.319 JW Dominion T-5 13.25M

T-6 Saturday 145 Showings 3100 +625 23839 ATP: 16.20
0.454 AtSV T-6 16.98M
0.290 Avatar 2 T-6 12.84M
0.384 JW Dominion T-6 17.99M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Tuesday

166 Showings

5714

+918

23840

ATP:

8.56

0.440	AtSV T-1	7.63M
0.544	Avatar 2 T-1	9.24M
0.501	JW Dominion T-1	9.02M

T-2 Wednesday

241 Showings

3018

+524

33584

ATP:

16.44

T-3 Thursday

204 Showings

2335

+440

30273

ATP:

16.25

T-4 Friday

174 Showings

3096

+466

26752

ATP:

16.68

0.367	AtSV T-4	12.67M
0.274	Avatar 2 T-4	9.92M
0.334	JW Dominion T-4	13.87M

T-5 Saturday

176 Showings

3643

+543

27051

ATP:

16.17

0.479	AtSV T-5	17.91M
0.296	Avatar 2 T-5	13.13M
0.397	JW Dominion T-5	18.62M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 3:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-1 Monday 7 Showings 486 +149 1609
T-2 Tuesday 198 Showings 2114 +721 29690
0.659 AtSV T-2 11.44M

T-3 Wednesday 289 Showings 767 +321 40607

T-4 Thursday 240 Showings 411 +155 35964

T-5 Friday 205 Showings 687 +194 33256
0.229 AtSV T-5 7.89M

T-6 Saturday 203 Showings 793 +288 33051
0.476 AtSV T-6 17.80M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Monday	7 Showings	809	+323	1632
T-1 Tuesday	198 Showings	3028	+914	29732

0.715

AtSV T-1

12.41M

T-2 Wednesday

289 Showings

1067

+300

40488

T-3 Thursday

240 Showings

583

+172

35971

T-4 Friday

205 Showings

933

+246

33272

0.270

AtSV T-4

9.30M

T-5 Saturday

203 Showings

1038

+245

33056

0.533

AtSV T-5

19.92M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 3:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 481 1008 47.72%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 347 1165 29.79%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1552 150 9736 15.58% 13 49

1.897 Indiana Jones T-11 13.66M

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

490

1008

48.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

374

1163

32.16%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1639	121	9726	17.20%	13	49

1.943	Indiana Jones T-10	13.99M
0.888	AtSV T-10	15.41M
0.564	Avatar 2 T-10	9.60M
0.317	Thor L&T T-10	9.19M
1.587	Dune T-10	8.10M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 3:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-11 Thursday 83 Showings 4764 +405 12329 ATP: 17.12
0.965 Indiana Jones T-11 6.95M

T-12 Friday 134 Showings 5133 +482 20034 ATP: 16.18
1.170 Indiana Jones T-12 19.65M

T-13 Saturday 132 Showings 6279 +594 20221 ATP: 16.39
1.467 Indiana Jones T-13 27.26M

T-14 Sunday 124 Showings 4062 +493 19401 ATP: 16.46
1.695 Indiana Jones T-14 30.67M

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday

83 Showings

4999

+235

12329

ATP:

17.06

0.980	Indiana Jones T-10	7.05M
1.072	Avatar 2 T-10	18.23M
0.392	Thor L&T T-10	11.38M

T-11 Friday

134 Showings

5576

+443

20034

ATP:

16.13

1.224	Indiana Jones T-11	20.57M
0.942	Avatar 2 T-11	34.09M
0.525	Thor L&T T-11	21.28M

T-12 Saturday

132 Showings

6710

+431

20221

ATP:

16.32

1.503	Indiana Jones T-12	27.93M
0.950	Avatar 2 T-12	42.10M
0.666	Thor L&T T-12	28.03M

T-13 Sunday

124 Showings

4355

+293

19401

ATP:

16.41

1.704	Indiana Jones T-13	30.84M
1.030	Avatar 2 T-13	37.66M
0.786	Thor L&T T-13	25.53M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 3:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-11 Thursday 77 Showings 1143 +187 12781

T-12 Friday 142 Showings 1212 +276 20681

T-13 Saturday 142 Showings 866 +248 20670

T-14 Sunday 138 Showings 464 +129 20916

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-10 Thursday

79 Showings

1288

+145

12786

1.215	Indiana Jones T-10	8.75M
0.846	AtSV T-10	14.67M

T-11 Friday

145 Showings

1390

+178

21825

1.881	Indiana Jones T-11	31.60M
0.949	AtSV T-11	32.73M

T-12 Saturday

145 Showings

979

+113

22116

2.454	Indiana Jones T-12	45.59M
1.518	AtSV T-12	56.77M

T-13 Sunday

141 Showings

521

+57

21336

3.340	Indiana Jones T-13	60.45M
1.822	AtSV T-13	56.93M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 3:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 240 839 28.61%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 241 1291 18.67%

Wednesday: 871(+39)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1420 240 12222 11.62% 13 78

1.278 AtSV T-11 22.18M

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

269

839

32.06%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

266

1291

20.60%

Wednesday: 888(+17)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1619	199	12222	13.25%	13	78

1.331	AtSV T-10	23.09M
2.601	TLM T-10	26.79M
0.846	Avatar 2 T-10	14.38M
0.475	Thor L&T T-10	13.76M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 3:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-10 Wednesday 15 Showings 2056 +151 2067 ATP: 19.52
T-11 Thursday 157 Showings 12194 +705 20563 ATP: 16.06
0.847 Doctor Strange 2 T-11 30.49M

T-12 Friday 224 Showings 13695 +1013 30186 ATP: 14.91
0.918 Doctor Strange 2 T-12 50.21M

T-13 Saturday 226 Showings 14590 +1013 30881 ATP: 14.60
0.931 Doctor Strange 2 T-13 53.84M

T-14 Sunday 212 Showings 10838 +881 28434 ATP: 14.47
1.407 Doctor Strange 2 T-14 54.73M

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Wednesday	15 Showings	2058	+2	2067	ATP:	19.52
T-10 Thursday	159 Showings	12639	+445	20747	ATP:	16.01

0.855	Doctor Strange 2 T-10	30.78M
0.583	No Way Home T-10	29.16M

T-11 Friday

225 Showings

14373

+678

30327

ATP:

14.88

0.936	Doctor Strange 2 T-11	51.19M
0.646	No Way Home T-11	46.46M

T-12 Saturday

227 Showings

15268

+678

31205

ATP:

14.58

0.946	Doctor Strange 2 T-12	54.69M
0.718	No Way Home T-12	53.12M

T-13 Sunday

212 Showings

11392

+554

28434

ATP:

14.44

1.417	Doctor Strange 2 T-13	55.10M
1.047	No Way Home T-13	67.25M

Inceptionzq · July 10, 2023

On 7/9/2023 at 3:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-10 Wednesday 4 Showings 469 +8 518
T-11 Thursday 97 Showings 2214 +430 11938

T-12 Friday 136 Showings 3074 +699 17959

T-13 Saturday 137 Showings 1499 +431 18028

T-14 Sunday 141 Showings 629 +180 17845

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Wednesday	4 Showings	471	+2	518
T-10 Thursday	101 Showings	2480	+266	12270

1.938	AtSV T-10	33.62M
2.710	TLM T-10	27.91M

T-11 Friday

142 Showings

3545

+471

18399

2.420	AtSV T-11	83.48M
1.896	TLM T-11	52.80M

T-12 Saturday

143 Showings

1730

+231

18591

2.232	AtSV T-12	83.49M
1.191	TLM T-12	35.89M

T-13 Sunday

141 Showings

751

+122

17847

2.626	AtSV T-13	82.06M
1.441	TLM T-13	39.37M

Day: T-2, T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	142	255	1778	24637	7.22
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	37	568	1372	41.4
Sunday EA: 4 theaters	4	90	182	698	26.07
TOTALS:	153	382	2528	26707	9.47

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1286	254	22980	5.60%	13	114

0.677	AtSV T-2	11.75M
0.465	Avatar 2 T-2	7.90M
0.568	JW Dominion T-2	10.23M
1.420	NTTD T-2	8.85M

0.456	AtSV T-2	7.91M
0.511	Avatar 2 T-2	8.68M
0.488	JW Dominion T-2	8.78M

0.345	AtSV T-5	11.89M
0.273	Avatar 2 T-5	9.87M
0.319	JW Dominion T-5	13.25M

0.454	AtSV T-6	16.98M
0.290	Avatar 2 T-6	12.84M
0.384	JW Dominion T-6	17.99M

T-1 Monday	7 Showings	486	+149	1609
T-2 Tuesday	198 Showings	2114	+721	29690

T-10 Wednesday	15 Showings	2056	+151	2067	ATP:	19.52
T-11 Thursday	157 Showings	12194	+705	20563	ATP:	16.06

T-10 Wednesday	4 Showings	469	+8	518
T-11 Thursday	97 Showings	2214	+430	11938

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