The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

Oppy having a review bump this late will hopefully lift it from the stagnation we were seeing at T-2/1, I think I already saw that a bit in MSP after taking those numbers a bit late

[filmlover]

Saw just moved up almost a month to September 29 (makes sense since it would've been overshadowed in October by The Exorcist and Five Nights at Freddy's). This is what the month looks like now in terms of wide releases:

 

9/1: Equalizer 3

9/8: The Nun 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

9/15: A Haunting in Venice, Challengers

9/22: Expendables 4, Dumb Money, Drive-Away Dolls

9/29: The Creator, PAW Patrol 2, Saw

 

Some of these are already rumored to potentially being on the move due to the strike impacting promo (Challengers, in particular) but overall this is going to be quite a busy (and sequel-heavy) September.

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Studios will, one hundred percent, take away the complete wrong lessons from this

Yep. Their lesson should be pay actors and writers more.

 

Let’s be honest, these movies wouldn’t be nearly as big without Robbie, Gosling, Murphy, Blunt, RDJ, Gerwig, or Nolan.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,185
Sold - 205,521
Total - 708,789
ATP - $16.57
 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,186
Sold - 200,553
Total - 711,833
ATP - $16.00
 

I am expecting 250k+(260K would be my guess). I cannot see it miss 400K and 6.4m from MTC1. I cannot see it miss 25m true friday. I expect other TC to be more walkups driven as they have more capacity. Should be a crazy weekend to track. I expect weekend estimates to keep going up looking at PS for entire weekend and beyond. As of yesterday afternoon Day 9 sold 22K tickets :-) 

[reddevil19]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I am expecting 250k+(260K would be my guess). I cannot see it miss 400K and 6.4m from MTC1. I cannot see it miss 25m true friday. I expect other TC to be more walkups driven as they have more capacity. Should be a crazy weekend to track. I expect weekend estimates to keep going up looking at PS for entire weekend and beyond. As of yesterday afternoon Day 9 sold 22K tickets 🙂

If it does 25 Friday, then 73-75 should be happening. Here's hoping, as I was in the 60-ish camp but I'd love to be wrong 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-1	Oppenheimer	PLF	12	107	1,396	2,694	51.82%
		Standard	23	159	468	2,033	23.02%
	Total		35	266	1,864	4,727	39.43%
T-2	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	21	157	2,044	4,763	42.91%
		Standard	50	238	596	4,729	12.60%
	Total		71	395	2,640	9,492	27.81%
T-3	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	236	2,062	4,747	43.44%
		Standard	47	181	480	4,414	10.87%
	Total		68	417	2,542	9,161	27.75%
T-4	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	159	1,391	4,747	29.30%
		Standard	51	113	295	4,767	6.19%
	Total		72	272	1,686	9,514	17.72%

 

Oppenheimer Previews T-1 comps

 - Batman (Total) - .288x (6.22m)

 - TG2 (Total) - .344x (6.64m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.206x (7.23m)

 - Avatar 2 - .403x (6.85m)

 - JWD - .257x (4.62m)

 - Morbius - 1.307x (7.45m)

 

Oppenheimer Fri T-2 comps

 - Batman - .41x (14.35m)

 - TG2 - .538x (17.6m)

 - JW3 - .319x (13.28m)

 - Avatar 2 - .515x (18.65m)

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .521x (23.1m)

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-4 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .569x (20.82m)

 

Avatar 2 OW comp - .497x (66.58m)

 

Capacity really an issue here, but that's helping out the weekend just like other areas.  Looking like we might get a disappointing number for previews with Santikos pointing to around 7.5 after accounting for the huge PLF presence.

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Oppenheimer	PLF	12	177	1,573	2,694	58.39%
		Standard	23	252	720	2,033	35.42%
	Total		35	429	2,293	4,727	48.51%
T-1	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	21	221	2,265	4,763	47.55%
		Standard	50	407	1,003	4,729	21.21%
	Total		71	628	3,268	9,492	34.43%
T-2	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	222	2,284	4,747	48.11%
		Standard	47	319	799	4,414	18.10%
	Total		68	541	3,083	9,161	33.65%
T-3	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	170	1,561	4,747	32.88%
		Standard	51	152	447	4,767	9.38%
	Total		72	322	2,008	9,514	21.11%

 

Oppenheimer Previews T-0 comps

 - Batman (Total) - .289x (6.25m)

 - TG2 (Total) - .354x (6.82m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.138x (6.83m)

 - Avatar 2 - .408x (6.94m)

 - JWD - .257x (4.62m)

 - Morbius - 1.164x (6.63m)

 

Glad this isn't the only chain being tracked.  Looks like Santikos is under-indexing in a big way.  I could throw in a couple smaller adult driven movies that comp out to a closer range.

 

Smaller comps

 - Creed III - 2.178x (11.87m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 6.646x (9.97m)

 - Crawdads - 4.461x (8.92m)

 

This is more like the expected range.  The huge movies (CBM, JW, TG) are usually mostly sold out in Palladium and Casa Blanca by now so less room for preview walkups.  Even still, there isn't as much capacity here with only 35 total preview shows in the 10 theaters.  I'll go on the lower end of projections and say 7m based on Santikos (fully expecting it to come in much higher).

 

Oppenheimer Fri T-1 comps

 - Batman - .422x (14.79m)

 - TG2 - .565x (18.48m)

 - JW3 - .32x (13.3m)

 - Avatar 2 - .544x (19.7m)

 - Crawdads - 6.823x (35.92m)

 - Indiana Jones - 2.412x (39.75m)

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .55x (24.37m)

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .603x (22.05m)

 

Avatar 2 OW comp - .518x (69.47m)

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

If it does 25 Friday, then 73-75 should be happening. Here's hoping, as I was in the 60-ish camp but I'd love to be wrong 

If it does 10m previews and 25m true friday, you are expecting it to crater to that low OW ? Its saturday sales clearly show its going to increase from true friday :-) Sunday Sales are also really robust. 

[rayjulio]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If it does 10m previews and 25m true friday, you are expecting it to crater to that low OW ? Its saturday sales clearly show its going to increase from true friday :-) Sunday Sales are also really robust. 

you mean

friday 35m

saturday 31m

sunday 24m

so 90m weekend ?

9x preview

Edited July 20, 2023 by rayjulio

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Barbie (EA)	PLF	2	7	370	376	98.40%
		Standard	1	0	144	145	99.31%
	Total		3	7	514	521	98.66%
T-1	Barbie	PLF	21	193	2,576	4,785	53.83%
		Standard	83	812	3,826	10,589	36.13%
	Total		104	1,005	6,402	15,374	41.64%
T-2	Barbie (Fri)	PLF	42	356	3,372	9,627	35.03%
		Standard	136	748	3,105	16,581	18.73%
	Total		178	1,104	6,477	26,208	24.71%
T-3	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	41	417	2,726	9,467	28.79%
		Standard	135	451	2,156	16,613	12.98%
	Total		176	868	4,882	26,080	18.72%
T-4	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	42	214	1,675	9,621	17.41%
		Standard	138	199	1,267	16,656	7.61%
	Total		180	413	2,942	26,277	11.20%

 

 

Barbie Previews T-1 comps (Excl EA)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.062x (18.69m)

 - TG2 (Thu) - 1.549x (22.77m) 

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.141x (24.85m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.348x (23.53m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - 4.204x (20.93m)

 - JWD - .882x (15.87m)

 

Barbie + EA T-1 comps

 - Batman (Total) - 1.069x (23.089m)

 - TG2 (Total) - 1.276x (24.62m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.473x (26.84m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.495x (25.42m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 3.202x (20.01m)

 - JWD - .952x (17.14m)

 

Barbie Fri T-2 comps

 - Batman - 1.006x (35.01m)

 - TG2 - 1.32x (43.19m)

 - JW3 - .784x (32.59m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.264x (45.77m)

 

Barbie Sat T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.001x (44.37m)

 

Barbie Sun T-4 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .993x (36.33m)

 

Avatar OW comp - 1.206x (161.78m)

 

Another 30% increase in shows for the weekend.  I remember why I hardly ever track Santikos anymore.  Based on Santikos, I'd put Thu previews at 21.5m.  Weekend sales are almost exactly like Avatar 2 while previews and Fri are well ahead.   Looking good to have a strong multiplier. 

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Barbie	PLF	21	357	2,933	4,785	61.30%
		Standard	84	1,408	5,234	10,672	49.04%
	Total		105	1,765	8,167	15,457	52.84%
T-1	Barbie (Fri)	PLF	42	690	4,062	9,627	42.19%
		Standard	136	1,417	4,522	16,581	27.27%
	Total		178	2,107	8,584	26,208	32.75%
T-2	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	41	458	3,184	9,467	33.63%
		Standard	135	814	2,970	16,613	17.88%
	Total		176	1,272	6,154	26,080	23.60%
T-3	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	42	304	1,979	9,621	20.57%
		Standard	138	408	1,675	16,656	10.06%
	Total		180	712	3,654	26,277	13.91%

 

Barbie Previews T-0 comps (Excl EA)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.092x (19.22m)

 - TG2 (Thu) - 1.597x (23.48m) 

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.053x (24.32m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.453x (24.71m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - 4.041x (20.12m)

 - JWD - .914x (16.45m)

 

Barbie Fri T-1 comps

 - Batman - 1.11x (38.85m)

 - TG2 - 1.484x (48.53m)

 - JW3 - .84x (34.94m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.429x (51.74m)

 

Barbie Sat T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.098x (48.65m)

 

Barbie Sun T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.097x (40.13m)

 

Avatar OW comp - 1.29x (173.21m)

 

Pulled ahead of Avatar 2 in weekend sales.  Previews had another solid day.  Gonna stick with my 21.5m previews before EA is added.   I don't want to get expectations too high for the weekend, but... 180m could be in play...

[filmlover]

Is there any word on when Meg 2 goes on sale? Comes out in two weeks and it feels like there's no buzz at all.

[reddevil19]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If it does 10m previews and 25m true friday, you are expecting it to crater to that low OW ? Its saturday sales clearly show its going to increase from true friday 🙂 Sunday Sales are also really robust. 

I'm expecting 8 for previews right now due to capacity issues. Flat sat and bugger drop sun due to late shows potentially not selling well given the length and type of movie. So I'm being pessimistic for that Friday number. On the other hand, true Friday might be lower, with a sat increase and lower sun drop and same final number...

[Eric is Anxious]

52 minutes ago, filmlover said:

9/29: The Creator, PAW Patrol 2, Saw

 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

How many completely artificially created Barbenheimer copycats are we going to get after this? Will we even have to wait till the end of this year for them to try? Dunevels? Wishapoleon? Five Nights At Jigsaws?

 

3 hours ago, LonePirate said:

Here are the 5pm and 9pm showings for Opp at the Regal IMAX I attend. The 7pm MI7 showing I attended in this same theater last Thursday night had maybe 80 people in it. There are about 600 total seats here. F/S are running shows at 11/3/7/11 and the 7pm shows both days have sold about 15% more seats than either of tonight’s shows but the 11pm show has sold about 60% less. The 11am shows are relatively light but the 3pm shows are solid, especially Saturday. Domestically, Sat could see an increase from true Fri which is almost certainly due to the target audience working during the first shows on Friday.

 

For Oppenheimer, the 19.00 IMAX is sold out tomorrow here and even the 11.20 and 15.00 are almost gone too, despite it being a working day. Saturday is rammed. It’s going to be huge here. It’s weekend will potentially be big enough to have been #1 on every other weekend so far this year. But Barbie. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

If it does 25 Friday, then 73-75 should be happening. Here's hoping, as I was in the 60-ish camp but I'd love to be wrong 

Man, 70+ would be amazing. That’s in the same territory as Inception with ticket price inflation. 

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Is there any word on when Meg 2 goes on sale? Comes out in two weeks and it feels like there's no buzz at all.

 

14 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

July 25, same day as Demeter.

 

[spizzer]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Man, 70+ would be amazing. That’s in the same territory as Inception with ticket price inflation. 

 

It is??  It's been 13 years, I would think its more like 90M, especially with PLF prominence today.

 

[I feel like we have had this exact exchange multiple times in the past decade LOL]

[redfirebird2008]

14 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

It is??  It's been 13 years, I would think its more like 90M, especially with PLF prominence today.

 

[I feel like we have had this exact exchange multiple times in the past decade LOL]

You’re right, not sure why I thought it was $72M or something. The Numbers is showing 32% inflation, which would be $83M. Tack on some PLF boost and it’s probably closer to $90M like you mentioned. 

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

It is??  It's been 13 years, I would think its more like 90M, especially with PLF prominence today.

 

[I feel like we have had this exact exchange multiple times in the past decade LOL]

I must admit I was disappointed by its OW and shocked at its cinemascore. But the legs made up for it and its OS box office was crazy. If I am not wrong it was 2nd or 3rd biggest hollywood movie in China(2012 had very similar BO). 

 

Nolan is much bigger brand than when Inception released and So Oppenheimer opening huge is not a surprise to me.  

[SpiderByte]

I didn't know where this fit so I figured since it's seating based:

 

[Johnny Tran]

So my local AMC has IMAX and another large format,  they are splitting Oppenheimer and Barbie between the two with Oppenheimer receiving the IMAX screens and Barbie on their own format.   Everything for tonight is sold out.  

 

Everything for Friday afternoon is nearly sold out.  Everything for Friday early evening is sold out.  Still some seats left for the late showings but not many. 

 

I've never seen this at this theater outside of a big comic book or Star Wars event.