The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YM!]

Yeah it’s a rough first hour but also just a start. If it continues throughout the day than yeah ring the alarms.

[SpiderByte]

Lol my joke about "it's been ten minutes and no sellouts bomb confirmed" was only off by barely over half an hour. Yeesh.

[Skim Beeble]

If The Marvels is tracking like this, and if Taylor Swift can't get a $100M+ opening, we might not get a $100M+ opening until Deadpool 3, unless there's something else that's coming out I'm forgetting. 

[Giorno]

I mean are we really surprised? 

 

Marvel has had a big quality dip post endgame 

 

There's no endgame hype to boost this movie

 

One of its important characters is from a show with relatively poor viewership 

[tdangie]

2 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

If The Marvels is tracking like this, and if Taylor Swift can't get a $100M+ opening, we might not get a $100M+ opening until Deadpool 3, unless there's something else that's coming out I'm forgetting. 

Hold on lets not lose hope yet...

[jeffthehat]

On 10/6/2023 at 8:34 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-7

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 125

Seats sold - 6970

Total seats - 20734

% sold - 33.6%

New sales - 96 (+1.4%)

 

Weekly growth

 

T-34 to T-28: +376 (+7.7%)

T-27 to T-21: +240 (+4.5%)

T-20 to T-14: +576 (+10.1%)

T-13 to T-7: +712 (+11.4%)

 

Been pacing better here than elsewhere. But a bad day at this stage. Idk how disasterous pace is for OD because the comps are so bipolar. Would like to see better though. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-3 (4 days of sales)

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 125

Seats sold - 7596 

Total seats - 20734

% sold - 36.6%

New sales - 626 (+9%)

 

Growing a lot slower than I thought it would at this stage. Don't think it's gonna hit 10k in sales here. A lot of folks called it, but surprised me to see how frontloaded this ended up being.

 

The comps are still confusing me. I'm guessing Denver/Minneapolis/Ok will finish upper 40s, while Orlando/Sacto/Alamo will finish high 20s/ low 30s. Normally I'd average them and say high 30s/ low 40s OD. But the more experienced guys seem to be saying low 30s, so that's probably where it's heading. I guess T-0 comps could be misleading too as other movies should get more walkups in the later shows. 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by jeffthehat

[Skim Beeble]

4 minutes ago, tdangie said:

Hold on lets not lose hope yet...

Dang, I have no idea how I forgot about FNAF. I guess nothing is a "guaranteed" 100m+ opener until May.

[Flip]

13 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

If The Marvels is tracking like this, and if Taylor Swift can't get a $100M+ opening, we might not get a $100M+ opening until Deadpool 3, unless there's something else that's coming out I'm forgetting. 

longshot but why not 🤷‍♂️

[TwoMisfits]

One of my Cinemarks FINALLY set...

 

PLF 14 has 4 screens for Captain Marvel, so in line with Marvel single hero releases (no reduction) - 2 PLF screens/2 Reg - 16 showings Fri. 20 Sat b/c of extended mornings.  

 

Non-PLF 12 has STILL not set - since the 2 operate in tandem, maybe this is another sign they are funneling early buyers to PLF/expensive seats b/c it can't offer PLF...

Edited October 10, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[JustLurking]

18 minutes ago, Flip said:

longshot but why not 🤷‍♂️

only in my dreams I'm afraid

[M37]

30 minutes ago, tdangie said:

Hold on lets not lose hope yet...

Of the 3, that would be my best bet at present. The weird way in which Universal is handing this release does give my pause though 

[ChipDerby]

It's wild to me that I get warnings for being defensive of films, and I go into every thread and it's just shitposting about how much people are orgasming to a film not doing well. Over and over.

Edited October 10, 2023 by ChipDerby

[Roxanne]

Spider-Verse sold less than GOTG and Ant-Man in the first hour and ended up having the highest OW of all three. Not saying Marvels is Spider-Verse, but one hour of data is nowhere near enough to draw conclusions from.

[XXR vs XXR]

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.

[Giorno]

nvm

Edited October 10, 2023 by Giorno

[ChipDerby]

4 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

Spider-Verse sold less than GOTG and Ant-Man in the first hour and ended up having the highest OW of all three. Not saying Marvels is Spider-Verse, but one hour of data is nowhere near enough to draw conclusions from.

 

Watch them do it though

[TwoMisfits]

2nd Cinemark FINALLY up...

 

Smaller set - 3 screens with 1 crappy 3d and 2 reg.  12 showings Fri/15 Sat - slightly under normal Marvel single hero set.

[MCKillswitch123]

25 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

It's wild to me that I get warnings for being defensive of films, and I go into every thread and it's just shitposting about how much people are orgasming to a film not doing well. Over and over.

 

But why do you get defensive, though

[DAJK]

I really REALLY don’t want to add to any alarmist narrative, but across the 5 theaters I regularly track, Marvels has sold 0 tickets so far in 4 of them. Yea, you heard that right. And only 1 of these are what you could consider a “small” theater.

 

The big theater (SilverCity in Victoria) has only sold 10 tickets across the entire weekend. I don’t usually track presales data this far out, but I have a few data points to work from. At this theater, Shang Chi was at 39 after an hour, Dune was at 60. NTTD, which skews older and walkup heavy was at 19. Flash was at 26. 
 

EDIT: just realized that these numbers for the other movies are Thursday only, where Marvels has 6 (4 others for the rest of the weekend).
 

Not even going to bother with comps to No Way Home or Eras Tour, which were in the hundreds after an hour. But this is really really pathetic, and worries me about the box office for the remainder of the year. Marvel needs to do something with this film to get people interested, and they need to do it fast. Yes, I understand that presales can pick up, but this is a very worrying start for a movie that is part of such a presales heavy franchise. At this point, I’m almost certain that FNAF will open higher.

Edited October 10, 2023 by DAJK

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

It's wild to me that I get warnings for being defensive of films, and I go into every thread and it's just shitposting about how much people are orgasming to a film not doing well. Over and over.

Like clockwork.