The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Bob Train]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Marvels should come on the high end of that tracking IMO since marketing should kick into higher gear soon and it'll be the first major non-Taylor tentpole since July but I think nearly 5 years was just too long for a sequel to Captain Marvel. The moment to strike while the iron was hot is gone. Overall it's going to be kind of a mid November looking at the slate of movies the month has to offer. 

FNAF is looking far more like a blockbuster tbh.

 

And being the first blockbuster since July didn't save Black Adam.

[Hilts]

On 10/9/2023 at 9:17 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
T-7	24	185	104	12,511	31,189	40.11%	0.84%
T-6	24	185	69	12,580	31,228	40.28%	0.55%
T-5	24	185	70	12,650	31,228	40.51%	0.56%
T-4	24	185	122	12,772	31,228	40.90%	0.96%
MTC1	7	67	+53	7,149	11,518	62.07%	0.75%
MTC2	4	41	+22	1,989	6,420	30.98%	1.12%
MTC3	3	34	+14	2,298	6,396	35.93%	0.61%
Other	10	43	+33	1,336	6,894	19.38%	2.53%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.292x	=	$27.26m	$40.89m
Oppenheimer				2.623x	=	$27.54m	$41.31m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.235x	=	$30.49m	$45.74m
T-4 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.116x	=	$19.93m	$29.89m

 

*+50%

 

Better day. Could this finally be the start of the ramp up.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-0	24	111	897	897	18,703	4.80%	-
MTC1	7	26		443	4,147	10.68%
MTC2	4	34		205	5,484	3.74%
MTC3	3	24		149	4,969	3.00%
Other	10	27		100	4,103	2.44%
Friday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	24	185	70	12,650	31,228	40.51%	0.56%
T-4	24	185	122	12,772	31,228	40.90%	0.96%
T-3	24	210	147	12,919	34,598	37.34%	1.15%
T-2	24	223	214	13,133	36,257	36.22%	1.66%
T-1	24	307	473	13,606	49,851	27.29%	3.60%
MTC1	7	106	+250	7,507	17,866	42.02%	3.44%
MTC2	4	62	+42	2,093	9,434	22.19%	2.05%
MTC3	3	56	+77	2,446	10,996	22.24%	3.25%
Other	10	83	+104	1,560	11,555	13.50%	7.14%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.376x	=	$29.04m	$43.56m
Oppenheimer				2.794x	=	$29.34m	$44.01m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.511x	=	$32.48m	$48.72m
T-1 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.337x	=	$20.17m	$30.26m

 

*+50%

 

Just catching up the last few days has been entertaining to say the least! Been too busy this week to collate, analyse and post all the data but I have been capturing at my usual slot - wasn't about to let Taylor tear up my efforts for the last month... anyway finally got round to it, so here it is. Yesterday was ridiculously hectic lol, thank you very much Taylor for that.

 

So, unless my region is over-indexing (which is certainly possible since looking at the previous comparison charts, my data was at the upper bound with MTC1) I am seeing Thursday previews at ~$3m-$3.3m, without adjusting for ATP. Applying my usual +50% I could see $4.5m-$5m for Thursday, so personally I can see why Deadline went with that but I guess we will see shortly.

 

I can't remember who said now as I just skimmed through 100s of posts but yes this will help us nail down ATP difference and therefore Friday a bit better once Thursday is confirmed, despite all this being last minute and a real pain in the behind for fans and trackers alike.

 

Re Friday, there is some movement here. Big show count jump as we know. New sales mostly MTC1 now they announced the earlier shows since most were basically sold out there for some time. Good uptick at the smaller chains too.

 

My previous Saturday counts have been at quite a lower % of Friday than other trackers, ~60% last time I checked. Hopefully I can do a final count to round it off but let's say this improves to 65%.

 

But for now purely based off my numbers I would guess $4.5m Thu, $45.43m Fri, $29.53m Sat, $20.67m Sun

 

= and what do you know, it's $100m OW (+0.13 for you Swifties out there 😉)

[Relevation]

Tickets are now on sale for Disney’s Wish

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Freelance T-15: 28.97% Awareness

Migration T-71: 22.84%

The Color Purple T-74: 34.08%

Bob Marley: One Love T-125: 26.5%

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-1: 47.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

 

Killers of the Flower Moon T-8: 40.91% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 80M

 

Next Goal Wins T-36: 15.88% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Thanksgiving T-36: 28.13% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 52% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 69% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

 

Anyone But You T-64: 16.28% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

Wonka T-64: 49.93% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 60M, 25% chance of 70M

[abracadabra1998]

33 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Tickets are now on sale for Disney’s Wish

I am excited to add some more tracking and numbers in animation, my only tracks so far are Ruby Gilman, TMNT, and Paw Patrol and those all feel very particular

[M37]

On 10/10/2023 at 9:08 AM, M37 said:

The growth in sales over the last 3 days has been so small, that its not even worth posting the updated the chart; Sacto is the highest at +3.2% (Emagine probably a bit higher, but went negative on last update), and with so little growth, there will be no convergence in values. Average (with Alpha) stands at just over $33M

 

The ERAS tour, at least for Friday but almost the entire weekend, is performing more like an EA show - including an expected over-index at MTC1 - than a regular release with an higher ATP (think Avatar 2).  Interesting ...

 

At this point, I'll be a little surprised if Eras can even match TGM's EA pace into Friday. I'm definitely focusing on the upper left quadrant of the forecast matrix in prior post for OW, starting to think under $100M more likely than not

Taylor Swift Eras Tour T-1 Update

Alright, finally enough movement to repost the chart, but with some caveats & updates

 

First, based on @Shawn's comments and the data from last night, the ATP adjustment has been increased, to +60% for all markets except MTC1 (now +50%) and applied back to all data points.  In addition, since we seem to have lost MTC1 data for now, the last few days have been estimated based on growth rate analysis, but of course some MOE there given the special circumstances of this release. And finally, as a reminder, Drafthouse is not included in the average given their almost certain under-index for a concert film that runs counter to their audience experience brand (even though rules have been relaxed)

 

Where does all of this ad-hoc/back of napkin math land? At a current mark of $38M, on track to approach ~$40M for the OD Friday, and while the pace of sales remains extraordinarily low, the newly added capacity may be enough to nudge a bit higher in the final updates. However, there is large variation among the samples (even w/o DH), which makes an unweighted average method less precise, unsure how the relative weight of the samples will shake out.  Personally, I'd probably take the under on that $40M value even if the final numbers show it being topped, but the case for higher is there depending on one's view of the relative value of the individual samples

 

As for the weekend total, here is where not having MTC1 data really stings. With that said, I'm still of the opinion - even moreso with newly added shows - that True Friday will be the highest grossing day, Saturday seeing a decrease, and Sunday having a typical (-25-30%) rather than extraordinary (-15-20%) drop from Saturday .. but that's a subjective view of what data is available

 

Overall, expecting Joker's October OW record to fall, probably over $100M (due mainly to added shows), but not by much: $95-$110M OW for TayTay

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-1: 47.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

 

Though to be honest, these numbers do show (much like Creator a few weeks back) that there is not much GA awareness nor interest beyond the primary core audience ... just that her fan base is large and uh, passionate enough to do most of the work without needing to pull in casuals

[TwoMisfits]

For Wish presales...

 

My non-PLF Cinemark set for 2 screens (with a few 3d showings, and the rest 2d).  My other Cinemark has not set at all - guess they are watching how the 1st does...or they took today off to avoid Taylor insanity...

 

It's better than the bomb animations of the summer...but less than Elemental...no Trolls 3 sets to compare it to, yet (which would be the best comparison)...

[Shawn Robbins]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Kinda sad @Shawn took surprise factor of Marvels bombing to something like $50M away from the general internet public. Wish he stick to $70M ish.

 

[Giorno]

Previews came in at 2.8m, what does this mean for ATP?

[Grebacio]

34 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For Wish presales...

 

My non-PLF Cinemark set for 2 screens (with a few 3d showings, and the rest 2d).  My other Cinemark has not set at all - guess they are watching how the 1st does...or they took today off to avoid Taylor insanity...

 

It's better than the bomb animations of the summer...but less than Elemental...no Trolls 3 sets to compare it to, yet (which would be the best comparison)...

I expect Wish will start gaining traction once Disney starts to market the soundtrack.

[Nomoras]

Friday gained almost 16k sales in the last 2 days. 

Half of the shows at at least 65.7% full. 

Numbers are this morning's.

The Eras Tour	Occupied	Available	Seats	Filled	Quartiles	Theatre Count	Showtime Count
Today October 13, 2023	71090	65768	136858	51.94	0.0|17.93|65.7 |87.72|100.0	154/155	612/620
Delta (49h)	15770	34223	49993	-11.75		153/155	400/400

 

The Eras Tour	Occupied	Available	Seats	Filled	Quartiles	Theatre Count	Showtime Count
Tomorrow October 14, 2023	82212	147816	230028	35.74	0.0|12.44|35.17 |61.79|100.0	154/155	1034/1036
Delta (53h)	5017	-4742	275	2.14		154/155	1029/1030

 

The Eras Tour	Occupied	Available	Seats	Filled	Quartiles	Theatre Count	Showtime Count
Sunday October 15, 2023	43448	177505	220953	19.66	0.0|4.55|14.22 |32.4|96.55	153/155	984/986
Delta (53h)	3831	-6674	-2843	1.96		153/155	987/987

Edited October 13, 2023 by Nomoras

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

[vafrow]

Wish is not yet up for sale in Canada (neither Cineplex or Landmark have it). Disney releases usually align, so, I hope we see it show up later today. Will update if it does.

 

On a related note, FNAF is still not up for sale, and it's becoming more likely that it's not going to get a proper advance sale treatment.

 

Unless something changes with the app or my approach, I won't be tracking, but I know there's a number of newer trackeds for the Canadian market doing analysis now. Even though they'll be very different levels of activity, Saw X would be my benchmark. It also didn't get advance sale treatment, so Thursday previews became available through their regular showtime availability at T-9 or so. Friday and beyond sales only came on a few days prior. That limited availability for the first week likely pushed more demand to the Thursday, as people who were eager were buying for the only day with availability.

 

If thats what ends up happening for FNAF, I can share my tickets per showtime data if it helps to give some benchmark. Both are very fan driven horror. Fnaf skews a lot younger obviously. Saw X also appeared to over index in Canada. 

 

We lack the datasets for good comps in general for Canada, but I can't think of a film that's expected to sell at this level that didn't get a proper advance sales window.

[M37]

30 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Previews came in at 2.8m, what does this mean for ATP?

It means we're probably in the right ballpark at +45-60% adjustment but with the late announcement and PLF/metro heavy skew of these last minutes shows, difficult to be more precise

 

Honestly its lower than I would have expected from data in this thread, but again not sure how much of that is just the second tier markets not able to keep up in the same way they will on Friday - with much longer sale period - and keeping the overall total down

 

13 hours ago, M37 said:

Looks like we're getting maybe $3M from these added shows

Edited October 13, 2023 by M37

[vafrow]

26 minutes ago, Nomoras said:

Friday gained almost 16k sales in the last 2 days. 

Half of the shows at at least 65.7% full. 

Numbers are this morning's.

The Eras Tour	Occupied	Available	Seats	Filled	Quartiles	Theatre Count	Showtime Count
Today October 13, 2023	71090	65768	136858	51.94	0.0|17.93|65.7 |87.72|100.0	154/155	612/620
Delta (49h)	15770	34223	49993	-11.75		153/155	400/400

 

It's worth noting that with the matinees re-added, many of those new sales are likely restored sales from the inital days.

 

I had 5888 sales across 121 showtimes in 50 theatres.

 

 

[Jsmitty]

30 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Wish is not yet up for sale in Canada (neither Cineplex or Landmark have it). Disney releases usually align, so, I hope we see it show up later today. Will update if it does.

 

On a related note, FNAF is still not up for sale, and it's becoming more likely that it's not going to get a proper advance sale treatment.

 

Unless something changes with the app or my approach, I won't be tracking, but I know there's a number of newer trackeds for the Canadian market doing analysis now. Even though they'll be very different levels of activity, Saw X would be my benchmark. It also didn't get advance sale treatment, so Thursday previews became available through their regular showtime availability at T-9 or so. Friday and beyond sales only came on a few days prior. That limited availability for the first week likely pushed more demand to the Thursday, as people who were eager were buying for the only day with availability.

 

If thats what ends up happening for FNAF, I can share my tickets per showtime data if it helps to give some benchmark. Both are very fan driven horror. Fnaf skews a lot younger obviously. Saw X also appeared to over index in Canada. 

 

We lack the datasets for good comps in general for Canada, but I can't think of a film that's expected to sell at this level that didn't get a proper advance sales window.

 

I’ll see what I can do. My landmark location just added KOTFM so seems like everyone is lagging behind.

4 showings on the Thursday btw including a 10PM! 10 tickets in total sold today so far.

[Eric S'ennui]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

Tickets are now on sale for Disney’s Wish

Weirdly there's no big promo for this today. It's noon on the East Coast. By then, we would have gotten some "Tickets on sale now" blurbs from Disney/Fandango's social media pages. But it's all radio silence. I guess that will be for Monday to honor Disney 100, but then what was the point of having tickets out today? Whatever, it's not a big deal.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

Weirdly there's no big promo for this today. It's noon on the East Coast. By then, we would have gotten some "Tickets on sale now" blurbs from Disney/Fandango's social media pages. But it's all radio silence. I guess that will be for Monday to honor Disney 100, but then what was the point of having tickets out today? Whatever, it's not a big deal.

"Buy Tickets Now" trailer showing only in theaters before Taylor for now, probably.

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-27):

 

491 tickets (10 locations)/ +11 sold from YD

 

Comp:

0.725x (D-27) Oppenheimer = $7.61m